Organization ranking: 12
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Reds prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Robert Stephenson, RHP (31)
2. Jesse Winker, OF (41)
3. Cody Reed, LHP (54)
4. Amir Garrett, LHP (86)
5. Tyler Stephenson, C (Just missed)
6. Nick Travieso, RHP
7. Alex Blandino, 2B
8. Jose Peraza, 2B
9. Phil Ervin, OF
10. Tyler Mahle, RHP
Overview
Nick Travieso has raised his arm slot a bit since he was the Reds' first-round pick in 2012, and he is now throwing 93 to 96 mph with some life in the zone and has an above-average curveball but a 35- or 40-grade changeup. He's very aggressive and likes to go right after hitters; outside of his first start back from a wrist contusion, he walked 26 in 91 innings on the year, missing about six weeks with that injury. He's a midrotation guy if he finds a changeup or split and an eighth-inning guy if he can't. Alex Blandino has played mostly short for the Reds, but his future is at second base. He can hit and has an excellent approach, but he might top out at 12 to 15 homers with average or slightly better defense; he is a solid regular but not more unless he turns out to be an even better hitter for average than I think (and I really like his hit tool).
Jose Peraza took a step back in 2015, failing to show any improvement at all in his approach; he has played only 14 games at shortstop over the past two years, and there's real doubt he can return there, but with grade-35 power, he might not be an everyday player at second base. He is still a 70 runner, and not only does he not have much power, but he's not even an elite line-drive hitter, putting the ball on the ground too often for someone batting from the right side. Phil Ervin seems to have settled in as an above-average left fielder who may eventually be plus, and he has become a very efficient base stealer, more successful than you would think based on his raw speed, but he needs to stop trying to pull everything and use the opposite field more. Tyler Mahle was the team's seventh-round pick in 2013 out of a California high school and was throwing 92 to 96 mph as a starter in Low-A this year with outstanding control. He was so efficient, he reached 152 innings despite the team watching his pitch counts, pitching into the seventh inning six times yet never facing more than 28 batters in any start. He has three quality pitches, but it's really a command/control approach and a refusal to give in and walk guys, along with a healthy 54 percent ground-ball rate.
Blake Trahan (11) is a little guy who plays like a big guy, making a lot of hard contact and bringing Dustin Pedroia-like confidence to the ballpark every day. He's a shortstop now, but he probably is destined for second base as a better runner than Blandino but without the latter's power. Yorman Rodriguez (12) is out of options this year, so it's a huge March for him; he has corner outfielder power but just has not developed enough pitch recognition to hit like an everyday player, and if the Reds carry him, he won't get the at-bats he needs to develop. Keury Mella (13), Rookie Davis (14), and Sal Romano (15) are all very similar in profile, if not in process, and starters now who are probably relievers in the end. Mella can throw 95 to 98 but lacks the secondary stuff to start and has had injury issues, while Davis has the command but not the great stuff. Romano has the best stuff of the three but lacks touch and feel and has a somewhat violent delivery.
The Reds picked up outfielder Jake Cave (16) and third baseman Eric Jageilo (19) from the Yankees this winter, along with Davis. Cave looks like a decent fourth outfielder, while Jageilo can hit but can't play third base and lacks the power for first. Right-hander Antonio Santillan (17) has hit 99 mph but had major control problems this spring; he's pretty athletic and threw more strikes after signing, so the Reds have confidence that they can mold him into a starter if they're patient. They also got a nice sleeper in the draft out of Hawaii in fifth-rounder Ian Kaholoa (18), who flashes two above-average pitches and should join Santillan in the Reds' Low-A rotation. Right-hander Jackson Stephens (20) finally had a full, healthy season, getting ground balls (50.8 percent of the time) and throwing strikes but not missing enough bats; he's a great athlete and very competitive but might have to move to the bullpen.
2016 impact
One of Jesse Winker or Cave could win the job in left field in spring training, and Robert Stephenson may get a call-up midyear for the inevitable opening in the rotation. Barring a trade somewhere, however, that's probably it for rookies this year.
The fallen
Nick Howard, the team's first-round pick in 2014 out of the University of Virginia, got the yips and had to be shut down, walking 50 in 38 innings, including 13 in his last 6 ⅓ innings before his season ended on July 10.
Sleeper
Mahle could shoot up the main list this year if either of his secondary pitches ticks up to get more swings and misses, as he has all of the other elements of a No. 3 starter.