Organization ranking: 6
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Phillies prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: (1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects and (2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. J.P. Crawford, SS (4)
2. Jake Thompson, RHP (63)
3. Mark Appel, RHP (68)
4. Nick Williams, OF (74)
5. Jorge Alfaro, C (82)
6. Scott Kingery, 2B
7. Cornelius Randolph, LF
8. Franklyn Kilome, RHP
9. Ricardo Pinto, RHP
10. Rhys Hoskins, 1B
Overview
The Phillies had a funny first day to their draft last year. With their first pick, the 10th selection overall, they took Cornelius Randolph, whom I rated a little lower than the player they got in the second round, Scott Kingery. Kingery moved from center field to second base for the University of Arizona last spring and took to it immediately; he's a seven runner who plays like his hair's on fire, hits the ball harder than you'd think given his size, and never saw a pitch he didn't think he could square up. At some point he's going to have to take a ball or two, but the contact skill is real and I think he can be an average- to above-average regular at second base if he starts to work the count.
Randolph can really hit -- like really, really hit -- but has no clear position. He has a great swing and the approach of a good college player, with enough arm for left field but a lot of work to do to adjust to it; he was a bad shortstop in high school and currently his best position is standing in the batter's box. Franklyn Kilome is still throwing heat in the 94-96 mph range and his breaking ball crept up toward above average by the end of the year, with a big frame that could end up filling out like J.R. Richard’s did. It's tempting to call it ace upside in his case, but he'll turn 21 in June and is just now getting to full-season ball, without the command he should have at his age, although the Phillies' player development folks praise his intelligence. Ricardo Pinto is more advanced, with a plus fastball and 60 or 70 changeup, while the slider can be anywhere from average (50) to way below (40); he started using the slider more in high-A to develop it, shelving the changeup and costing himself strikeouts. If the slider comes, he could be a No. 2 starter, although that's a best-case scenario.
Rhys Hoskins isn't very tooled up, and it's a simple but not that powerful swing … but this is kind of what Paul Goldschmidt looked like at that age, and like Goldy, Hoskins raked in Class A at age 22. I'm not saying what you think I'm saying, but I am saying that Hoskins is one to watch even with his age and lack of obvious tools.
Roman Quinn (11) might be a top-end prospect, but he can't stay on the field: He played 88 games in 2014, a career high, and just 58 last year around a torn hip flexor. He's an 80-grade baserunner and probably a 60 defender in center, with some bat-to-ball skills but no power. It's just hard to develop as a hitter when you're getting 300 at-bats a year.
Right-hander Thomas Eshelman (12), acquired in the Ken Giles deal with the Astros, is a finesse right-hander -- about my least favorite type of prospect -- but he does have exceptional command and control for a 21-year-old, and my bigger fear is that he was worked hard in college before Houston took him. Let him roll as a starter until he hits a level he can't conquer, because it's rotation or bust.
Carlos Tocci (13) is a good baseball player for a kid who weighs 50 pounds, but he has shown no signs of filling out or even getting to the hand strength he needs to hit decent pitching. Nick Pivetta (14) is an aggressive two-pitch starter who could be better if he extended more over his front side; his season was cut short by an oblique strain, but even as is he could be a fifth starter, with mid-rotation upside with some delivery tweaks.
Darnell Sweeney (15) is a good bench bat who can fake a couple of positions but isn't a good enough defender to be a true utility guy; he can run and has some sock, so he's a useful bat on the bench for a team that doesn't handcuff itself by carrying 15 pitchers or whatever the current vogue is.
Andrew Knapp (16) is a good backup catching prospect, but I don't see the offense for more than that. Arquimedez Gamboa (17) is a tools-laden middle infielder who can't hit -- yet -- but he has bat speed, can run, and has extension for power. Scouts who saw the Phillies' Gulf Coast League club unanimously called him the best tools prospect on the team, but Jonathan Arauz -- traded to Houston with Giles -- was the best prospect on the team. Dylan Cozens (18) had a weird year, making more contact than before but losing his power; if he can put that all together in one season, he'd be a potential above-average regular, as the power is obscene, although he's also had makeup questions going back to high school.
Adonis Medina (19) -- man, that's a tough name to grow up with -- looks the part of a starter with heat that sits at 94-95 mph mixed in with the occasionally average breaking ball, but he's still a long ways off and needs to develop some sort of changeup. Shortstop Malquin Canelo (20) was very impressive on both sides of the ball in the South Atlantic League but struggled to hit high-A pitching. The Phillies also have a handful of relief prospects kicking around the higher levels, including Zach Eflin, Tom Windle, Alberto Tirado, and Alec Asher.
2016 impact
In the Rule 5 draft, the Phillies took Tyler Goeddel, a toolsy outfielder who has a modest power/speed combo but probably needs to be in a corner, so he's likely to see a lot of time on the roster if not actually on the field. Sweeney will probably be up and down this year. The club will be very young, likely with three sophomores in the rotation, but unless someone like Thompson or Williams makes a big push in April and May, I doubt we'll see any of their top prospects before the fall.
The fallen
Jesse Biddle looked like he was getting back on track in Double-A, but was awful in Triple-A and ended up with a blown elbow. After Tommy John surgery, the Phillies designated him for assignment and eventually traded the former first-round pick to Pittsburgh.
Sleeper
As I said above, if Cozens goes to Double-A and shows he can keep his contact rate up without sacrificing all that power, he has huge breakout potential.