Organization ranking: 16
I have ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I have ranked the top 10 Mets prospects, with an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discussed any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) As in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; 2) If a prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page for scouting profile.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Dominic Smith, 1B (29)
2. Steven Matz, LHP (37)
3. Amed Rosario, SS (42)
4. Gavin Cecchini, SS (89)
5. Wuilmer Becerra, OF
6. Brandon Nimmo, OF
7. Desmond Lindsay, OF
8. Robert Gsellman, RHP
9. Jhoan Urena, 3B
10. Luis Carpio, SS
Overview
Wuilmer Becerra came to the organization in the R.A. Dickey trade, which should probably be called the Noah Syndergaard trade now. He had a nice breakout in a terrible power park in 2015 and showed what kind of strength and raw power he already has at age 20. He's playable in the outfield (if not an asset), but there should be enough average and power at the plate to make him a regular. Brandon Nimmo has stalled at Double-A and might be better cast as a fourth outfielder; he can't handle center field defensively and just hasn't come up with any power to profile in a corner.
Desmond Lindsay was the team's first pick (second round) in 2015. He can fly -- well, not literally, that would require some rule changes -- and should end up a plus defender in center. He has lightning-quick hands at the plate but doesn't project to hit for much power. Robert Gsellman is a strike-throwing sinkerballer who doesn't miss enough bats to profile as more than a fifth starter, but he should get starting opportunities with somebody … but probably not the Mets. Jhoan Urena had a horrible 2015, as he broke both hamate bones, but he still has enough upside to crack the top 10, thanks to a good swing that generates loud contact. Luis Carpio was in Kingsport at age 17 and handled himself well at the plate and in the field; he's a no-doubt shortstop with some tools -- more 6s than 7s or 8s -- and an advanced bat for his age.
Ali Sanchez (11) was one of the Mets' two big signings in the international market in 2013 and has a chance to be an everyday catcher. He is a good receiver with an above-average arm and some feel to hit, with the chance for average power down the line. Matt Reynolds (12) would make a fine utility player and could even handle short for a few days if needed, but he's better cast at third base, where he doesn't have the power to be a regular. Milton Ramos (13) is a plus defender at short but has shown more thump in pro ball than anyone anticipated in high school, when he looked like a 7 defender with a 3 bat.
Third baseman Eudor Garcia (14) has big left-handed power, which might be enough to overlook his mediocre defense at third and below-average hit tool. He's still way too pull-oriented, and because he isn't very patient, more advanced pitchers will eat him alive if he doesn't make some adjustments. Right-hander Seth Lugo (15) could be the replacement for Dillon Gee, a back-end starter/swing guy with a potentially plus curveball, though the Mets don't exactly need another Dillon Gee, like they did a few years ago. Shortstop Luis Guillorme (16) has a 70 glove but maybe a 30 bat. Third-rounder Max Wotell (17) is a very projectable lefty who is throwing up to 93 mph now but has a lot of filling out left to do. Third baseman David Thompson (18), their fourth-round pick, has legit right-handed power but a slow bat, and he's more likely to end up at first base than third. Right-hander Marcos Molina had Tommy John surgery and missed most of 2015. He has a live arm with two above-average pitches, but his is a bullpen delivery, and it's hardly surprising that he got hurt, given how his arm works.
2016 impact
Matz should be the Mets' fourth starter this year, and he will be good as long as he can stay healthy. Reynolds is ready to contribute in some role in the infield if there's an injury to create an opening.
The fallen
Nimmo hasn't completely lost his value, but his escape from the Mets' two pitcher-friendly A-ball clubs did not come with any increase in power. He is tall and strong enough to hit for power, but his approach is so contact-oriented that he hit just five bombs, even with the benefit of time in the PCL, and he'll turn 23 this year, so time is running out for him to become more than just an extra guy.
Sleeper
If Carpio goes to Savannah at age 18 and continues to play the way he has to date -- just making quality contact and playing great defense -- he'll shoot up the rankings next offseason.