Organization ranking: 1
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Braves prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Dansby Swanson, SS (13)
2. Ozhaino Albies, SS (20)
3. Sean Newcomb, LHP (30)
4. Aaron Blair, RHP (39)
5. Kolby Allard, RHP (43)
6. Touki Toussaint, RHP (80)
7. Max Fried, LHP (96)
8. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP (Just missed)
9. Lucas Sims, RHP
10. Braxton Davidson, OF
Overview
Tyrell Jenkins has been a top 100 prospect twice in his career, including last winter; he still has two plus pitches and good sink on the fastball, but he just doesn't miss enough bats for a guy with this kind of power stuff. Lucas Sims has also been a top 100 prospect before (two years ago) and bounced back a little last year, throwing 92 to 96 mph but very straight, with a plus curveball and a 40 changeup. He has starter size but might have reliever stuff.
Braxton Davidson was the team's first pick (sandwich round) in 2014 and started to show that plus raw power he had in high school, and he carried over the disciplined approach that he showed in rookie ball the previous summer. He spent the year in right field and was adequate but not great. He had the best exit velocity of any prospect in the system last year.
Canadian right-hander Mike Soroka (11) was one of the youngest pitchers in the draft, bearing a loose, fluid arm and showing low-90s heat already from a low three-quarters arm slot, as well as some early command of the pitch. Third baseman Austin Riley (12) has gotten a bit of extra hype after a great 30-game run in the advanced rookie Appalachian League, but he's not as good as the line there might indicate. He does have plus raw power and a plus arm (some teams liked him more as a pitcher in the draft), but the hit tool isn't that advanced, with even pro scouts telling me they questioned whether he had hit enough to profile at a corner because he lacks bat speed and might get blown up on the inner third.
Ronald Acuna (13), cousin of Alcides Escobar, is a popular target for teams trying to trade with Atlanta even though he was in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League last year; he's a lean, athletic kid with great bat control despite a somewhat long, levered swing. He has an above-average arm and plus range in center field with above-average running speed, and the team has toyed with the idea of putting him at shortstop. Mallex Smith (14), acquired from San Diego last offseason, is a bat-control guy with 70 or better speed and has good range in center due to his legs more than his reads. But he has little to no power and a long, slappy swing that comes down at the ball, producing enormous ground-ball rates (over 60 percent last year, per mlbfarm.com). I think he may be better cast as an extra outfielder and pinch-running weapon.
I've long been a fan of right-hander Zack Bird (15), the athletic young pitcher whom Atlanta acquired in the Alex Wood/Hector Olivera swap with the Dodgers; although at some point, he's going to have to throw more strikes or his above-average stuff is going to end up in the bullpen (or stuck in Double-A forever). Lefty Ricardo Sanchez (16) was in Rome's rotation at age 17 and throwing up to 97 mph with an improving breaking ball, although he's probably going to have to repeat the level, as he's not close to ready for High-A competition. Right-hander Casey Kelly (17), yet another former top 100 prospect, has never been quite the same since Tommy John surgery, but even before then had trouble missing bats with plus stuff -- a bit like Jenkins but, in this case, because hitters just saw the ball so well out of his hand. He's the best-fielding pitching prospect I've ever seen, an 80 athlete who should be able to make adjustments but simply hasn't done so to date.
John Gant (18) came over in the dump of Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson when the Mets were handing out pitching prospects in July; he's a starter for now, with velocity he dials up to 96 mph with an above-average to plus changeup, but he profiles better in the bullpen as a peak Tyler Clippard type. Lucas Herbert (19) was Kolby Allard's catcher in high school, a power-over-hit guy with a plus arm and great makeup. They also nabbed Anthony Guardado (20), one of the only pitchers in the draft younger than Soroka (by three months!), a very projectable kid with a good curveball and average fastball already.
That's only the beginning of the system. Third baseman Juan Yepez, who will turn 18 later this month, is still raw at the plate but has big offensive upside. Atlanta was active on July 2, landing switch-hitting shortstop and 80-grade baserunner Derian Cruz, as well as a power/speed prospect in center fielder Cristian Pache. Raw power-hitting outfielder Isranel Wilson led the Gulf Coast League with 10 homers, even though he missed about a third of the season. Right-hander Chris Ellis came with Newcomb in the Andrelton Simmons trade and could be a fourth starter. They picked up catcher Ricardo Rodriguez, a solid defender with a chance to hit for average because of his contact skills, in the Kelly/Christian Bethancourt trade. And so on. The system is loaded, especially with arms, but also with so many toolsy teenagers playing up the middle that it seems like we have to get a few of them turning into stars.
2016 impact
Aaron Blair is one of the five best MLB-ready starters in the system, even though he's behind probably six or seven guys on the depth chart. Smith could be the team's fourth outfielder at any point.
The fallen
Right-hander Jason Hursh was a bad pick in the first round in 2012, more of a second- or third-round talent as a two-pitch starter who almost certainly had to move to the bullpen. But he's even fallen short of those latter expectations, struggling in both roles in Double- and Triple-A in 2015. Third baseman Rio Ruiz, who came over in the Evan Gattis trade, hit .233/.333/.324 in Double-A, spending most of the year grounding out to the second baseman.
Sleeper
Acuna is the guy poised for a big jump, given the quality of his at-bats and broad mix of skills and tools. If he does end up on the dirt, especially at short, he has star upside and should be able to handle an aggressive assignment in 2016 despite his youth.