Organization ranking: 11
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Indians prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Bradley Zimmer, CF (21)
2. Clint Frazier, OF (72)
3. Bobby Bradley, 1B (93)
4. Brady Aiken, LHP (99)
5. Rob Kaminsky, LHP
6. Justus Sheffield, LHP
7. Tyler Naquin, CF
8. Michael Clevinger, RHP
9. Francisco Mejia, C
10. Triston McKenzie, RHP
Overview
This system is full of upside. The club has drafted some younger players the past few years, going after a lot of high-ceiling, projectable high school arms in 2015. Kaminsky was a steal in exchange for Brandon Moss at the 2015 deadline, working with an average fastball and plus curveball and good control of both, but threw only nine ineffective innings after the trade because of a back injury. Sheffield was from the 2014 draft but fits that category; he's a super athletic kid with a good arm and feel for three pitches. He finished in the top 15 in the Midwest League in strikeout rate, and only one teenager there (Grant Holmes) had a better K percentage. Naquin is a potential 70 defender in center with an 80 arm, and made some adjustments in 2015 to make harder contact, posting his career-best ISO and SLG before a collision with a wall and a concussion ended his season.
Clevinger was the return from the Angels for Vinnie Pestano in 2014, having posted a 5.37 ERA for high-A Inland Empire before the trade; he had a 2.73 ERA in Double-A in 2015, striking out 22.7 percent of the batters he faced, with a fastball up to 96 and above-average control. His secondary stuff -- three pitches -- is more average, and he has succeeded by setting hitters up and locating well, rather than blowing anyone away with an out pitch. Mejia has a 70 arm behind the plate, and his defense, from receiving to game-calling, keeps improving. He's a switch-hitter who's learning the craft of catching while also trying to hit older pitching from both sides of the plate, so in that context, his stat line in low-A looks pretty good, especially since his very upright stance and linear swing aren't going to produce big power. McKenzie and lefty Juan Hillman (11) were both in that great 2015 draft class. They are two very projectable arms who don't throw that hard right now but still get hitters out -- McKenzie with outstanding extension over his front side, Hillman with great deception in his delivery.
Shortstop Willi Castro (12) is a switch-hitter with a solid, line-drive swing from both sides of the plate. He has good instincts all around and the defensive tools to stay at short; he was only 18 in the advanced short-season New York-Penn League last year and hit .264/.304/.330 with 20 steals and only 31 strikeouts in 301 at-bats. Shawn Morimando (13) has gotten much stronger the past two years, and has gotten more consistency on the breaking ball, although he still needs that one plus pitch to potentially profile as a starter in spite of his 5-foot-11 frame. Mitch Brown (14) is still up to 95 with a plus curveball but has trouble keeping his delivery consistent, resulting in poor command and a lot of walks; he's 21 and healthy, which is something of a victory in and of itself. Sixth-rounder Jonas Wyatt (15) is a converted position player who has been up to 96 with a 12-to-6 curveball in the upper-70s; he gets on top of the ball extremely well from a high ¾ slot, but even throws a surprisingly good changeup from up there. The delivery is raw, as you might expect, but there's a lot to like here, especially for a sixth-round pick.
Shortstop-turned-leftfielder Dorssys Paulino (16) was lousy in his third straight year in low-A, then went to high-A in the summer and had the best six weeks he'd posted since 2012 in rookie ball. He has a great swing, but the body has gone backward, which is probably part of why Cleveland moved him off the dirt. Erik Gonzalez (17) can still play short, but he barely hit in double-A last year and was awful in 65 games in Triple-A. James Ramsey (18) could still end up as a fourth outfielder in the majors, but without the speed for center or enough thump for a corner, he might get squeezed out by other options who can handle center field. Shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang (19) was very young for the Midwest League, with only an AZL summer of experience behind him, so I wouldn't write him off just yet. He has a good approach and feel to hit, although he's probably going to end up at third base. Adam Plutko (20) could surface at some point as a Josh Tomlin, strike-throwing type with underwhelming stuff; he has plus command right now, but I don't think he's going to miss many bats or keep the ball in the park enough to be more than a fifth starter. Right-hander Grant Hockin missed all of 2015 with an injury, undergoing Tommy John surgery in June, and probably won't pitch again till the AZL this summer, but had mid-rotation upside as a high school prospect.
2016 impact
Cleveland doesn't have a real center fielder on its roster at the moment. The Indians could -- and may -- do worse than running Naquin out there, letting him catch everything hit his way even if he produces like a No. 8 hitter.
The fallen
Mike Papi seemed like a great pick in the sandwich round in 2014 -- a polished, patient hitter from Virginia who moved well enough to play the outfield. But he hit .236 in high-A with four home runs, and even with those 81 walks, that's not going to play on any corner.
Sleeper
McKenzie is so skinny that he can't walk over a storm grate, but he already has the elements and absent velocity that you'd want to see in a No. 2 starter -- height, delivery, extension, spin and intelligence. If he puts on some muscle and picks up a couple of miles per hour, watch out.