Organization ranking: 17
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Astros prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Alex Bregman, SS (19)
2. Francis Martes, RHP (40)
3. A.J. Reed, 1B (44)
4. Kyle Tucker, OF (67)
5. Daz Cameron, CF (just missed)
6. Joe Musgrove, RHP
7. Derek Fisher, OF
8. Colin Moran, 3B
9. Michael Feliz, RHP
10. Tyler White, 1B
Overview
Despite the promotions and the trades -- including the big prospect dump for Ken Giles -- it's still a strong, deep system with multiple potential stars and probably the next Ken Giles kicking around in here too.
Joe Musgrove can touch 95 and pitches at 89-93, filling up the strike zone (he faced 392 batters in 2015 and walked eight) with two average or better secondary pitches in the curveball and changeup, and seems like a very good bet to be at least a fourth starter, though the ceiling might be limited by how the fastball plays. Derek Fisher's tools are better than hi performance suggests, as he has raw power, 70 speed and still plays like someone who's only recently picked up the game. He hit the longest homer in the Arizona Fall League in 2015, for what that's worth.
Colin Moran can still hit, and he's playable at third, but he's not great at third, and the raw power he'll show in BP just does not show up in games. If he hits eight homers a year, you're looking to upgrade, and if he gets to 20, you're thrilled with the player. Michael Feliz is probably a reliever, with the control and fastball to start but trouble holding his stuff deep enough into games to be more than a twice-through-the-order guy. Tyler White is about as one-dimensional as it gets, as all he has ever done is hit, and if you know nothing else about a player other than that he has a 6 hit tool, you're interested. He might only be a 10-15 homer guy, but this kind of AVG/OBP potential at first base will make him someone's everyday solution there.
Jonathan Arauz (11) came over with Giles in the big trade, a now-17-year-old middle infielder with an advanced approach and strong wrists, generating hard contact even at age 16 in the Gulf Coast League last year. He probably ends up at second base but should be allowed to stay at shortstop to prove he can't do it. Right-hander David Paulino (12) came from Detroit for Jose Veras in 2013, right after Paulino had Tommy John surgery; he returned this year and was sitting in the mid-90s with a power curveball. He's big and a bit uncoordinated, kind of like Daniel Cabrera, and scouts who saw him in A-ball last year thought he'd end up a closer or setup guy. Venezuelan shortstop Miguelangel Sierra (13) is a big upside play, better than just a lottery ticket but still raw and several years away, with a chance for an average bat on a plus defensive shortstop.
J.D. Davis (14) still has plus raw power but did all his damage in Lancaster last year, and his defense at third is probably going to make him a first baseman in time. Tony Kemp (15) hit a wall in Triple-A, and when you don't walk or hit for power, you have to hit .300 to have much value. He's limited to second base or left field, and the bat doesn't profile in either spot. James Ramsay (16) can still play great outfield defense, but his ridiculous .322/.384/.463 line came as a 23-year-old in Lancaster, not exactly a good test of his abilities, and he'd struggled badly the year before in low-A. Brady Rodgers (17) could be a fifth starter for someone with a tick more life on the fastball or a slightly sharper breaking ball, as he has the command and control to pitch in the majors, but I doubt the stuff plays up in a relief role.
The Astros also have a slew of hard throwers -- Jandel Gustave is up to 100; James Hoyt (acquired with Evan Gattis last winter) is 95-96; Juan Minaya is 94-97; Riley Ferrell is up to 97, as is Edison Frias -- filling out the system, any of whom could do what Giles did: go from some velocity goofball in March to a vicious slider-throwing machine by July.
2016 impact
Reed or White should be handling first base and DH duties, somehow. They could match what little Evan Gattis produced last year, and it's not like Jon Singleton has seized the first-base job in past opportunities.
The fallen
Asher Wojciechowski was the 41st overall pick in 2010 by the Blue Jays but has never developed beyond 1½ pitches and struggled last year in Triple-A and in a brief cup of coffee with the Astros.
Sleeper
Arauz isn't especially impressive, but multiple scouts who saw him in Florida raved about his approach, instincts and quality of contact.