Organization ranking: 9
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Rangers prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Nomar Mazara, OF (9)
2. Joey Gallo, 3B/OF (12)
3. Lewis Brinson, CF (32)
4. Dillon Tate, RHP (50)
5. Luis Ortiz, RHP (79)
6. Jairo Beras, OF
7. Ariel Jurado, RHP
8. Josh Morgan, 2B/SS
9. Mike Matuella, RHP
10. Luke Jackson, RHP
Overview
The Rangers' system isn't as deep as it has been in recent years, but it's loaded with potential stars to make up for that lack of depth. Jairo Beras looked like he might be another Ronald Guzman, a big-bonus Latin American signing with zero return, as recently as late 2014, but once he got healthy in 2015 he hit .304/.349/.472 while repeating low-A, showing better plate discipline, using the whole field more, and showing he could murder a fastball. He still has a lot of growth to do in approach and in his body, but this was a pivotal season for him at age 20 and he showed the improvements he needed to show.
Ariel Jurado was originally signed for just $50K, but came somewhat out of nowhere in 2014 to have the best year of any pitching prospect in the system, showing good feel with a lively, sinking fastball, a good changeup and a roughly average slurvy breaking ball. He doesn't have a huge ceiling with his present stuff but has good fourth-starter probability. The Rangers have toyed with the idea of putting middle infielder Josh Morgan behind the plate; if everyone commits to it, and it works, he has star potential there that probably doesn't exist for him in the infield, where his upside is more average regular. Mike Matuella was a potential 1-1 pick last spring but had Tommy John surgery in March, the latest in a series of injuries that limited him to 140 innings total across three college seasons, including summers. He's 6-foot-6, up to 97 with a plus slider prior to the surgery, but we have no idea if he can hold up as a starter. Luke Jackson transitioned to the bullpen late in the season, in part to help the big-league club, but with some of his fastball command issues that may be the best long-term role for him.
Yohander Mendez (11) was coming back from injury to start the year, so the Rangers worked him in slowly but by year-end he was back up to 93 with a plus change and average breaking ball. He still has projection left at 6-foot-4 with a long and lean body. Lefty Andrew Faulkner (12) reached the majors in 2015 and should spend most of 2016 as one of the main lefties in Texas's pen, as he's been very effective against left-handed hitters in pro ball. Center fielder Leody Taveras (13) is a long way off, having just signed for $2.1 million as a 16-year-old amateur free agent, but he's a true center fielder and switch-hitter who has enormous upside with any development at all at the plate.
Shortstop Yeyson Yrizarri (14) was the Taveras of 2013, and has shown the tools and athleticism that got him seven figures but no production yet through his age-18 season, although he was young for the Northwest League. He's a plus runner with good actions at short, but he's been overmatched at the plate the past two summers. Right-hander Pedro Payano (15) has an average fastball and above-average changeup with good feel to pitch and the ability to spin his breaking ball for strikes; it's command over stuff, but he threw very well in a late-season stint for low-A Hickory in his first year in the U.S. Catcher Jose Trevino (16) is a premium catch-and-throw guy with great makeup and some power, probably a big-league backup unless he experiences a big bump to his hit tool.
Center fielder Eric Jenkins (17) is a plus defensive outfielder who can run, but lacks power or plate discipline now. Right-hander David Perez (18) had his healthiest season in pro ball, still throwing very hard and even throwing strikes in 2015; he's still low-probability given his injury history, but is the kind of reliever who could pop in Double-A and end up in the big-league pen in the summer. Ryan Cordell (19) can hit a little, but has no position and his poor pitch recognition killed him in Double-A. Third baseman Ti'Quan Forbes (20) is still all potential and no performance, but will play almost all of 2016 at age 19, having signed before his 18th birthday as a second-round pick in 2014. Right-hander Jonathan Hernandez (21) is a projectable right-hander (6'2", 160) who works in the low 90s and flashes three average pitches. I liked outfielder Chad Smith (22) for his explosive athleticism in the spring, but he played some awful competition in high school and it showed in a dismal rookie ball performance.
2016 impact
Gallo has been up already and will likely get a second chance this year, although Mazara is probably the better bet to provide offense in a call-up now. Luke Jackson and Faulkner are potential bullpen options.
The fallen
Former first-round pick Travis Demeritte went back to repeat the Sally League, didn't perform and then was suspended 80 games for testing positive for the masking agent furosemide. Their 2010 first-rounder, the budget-saving pick Jake Skole (taken with an unprotected pick, received as compensation for Matt Purke), was traded midseason.
Sleeper
If Morgan can stick behind the plate, he's a clear top 100 guy next year; I don't think he's an everyday shortstop, and the lack of power is a bit of a concern for second base, but if he can catch full-time, he might be Jason Kendall.