Perhaps the wildest tournament in NCAA history concludes Monday night. For the first time since seeding began in 1979, not a single top-three seed reached the Final Four. That leaves 4-seed UConn as an odds-on favorite entering the Final Four.
UConn entered the tournament with 15-1 odds, tied for the eighth-shortest odds with Gonzaga. It would be the first team since 2016 Villanova (15-1) to win the NCAA tournament with double-digit odds. It has steamrolled through the tournament, covering games by 17.5 points per game, the second-highest mark of any team since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
However, the other three teams here are true long shots, led by Florida Atlantic. The Owls entered 300-1 to win the NCAA tournament. That would be the longest pre-tournament odds by a champion since seeding began in 1979. In that span, the only team with odds of at least 40-1 to win it all entering the tournament was 2014 UConn at 95-1. San Diego State (65-1) and Miami (40-1) also would be the second-biggest long shots to win the NCAA tournament entering the event.
All four teams have been profitable against the spread this season, led by FAU (24-11-1) and UConn (25-12). UConn is 14-1 ATS when facing non-Big East opponents. However, Miami is the best team in the nation as an underdog over the past three seasons, going 34-12 ATS. San Diego State has also been trending under, with each of its past 12 games going under the total.
(9) Florida Atlantic Owls at
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET, Houston
Line: San Diego State -2
Money Line: Florida Atlantic (+110) San Diego State (-130)
Total: 132
Florida Atlantic is 24-11-1 ATS this season. FAU is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 games including 3-1 ATS in the NCAA tournament. Overs are 19-17 in FAU games this season.
Florida Atlantic is the only remaining team not to have covered every NCAA tournament game (did not cover against Fairleigh Dickinson).
Florida Atlantic is 6-2 outright and ATS as an underdog this season, including 3-0 outright in the NCAA tournament.
San Diego State is 19-16-1 ATS this season. It has covered six straight games and is 15-5 ATS in its past 20 games. The Aztecs are 10-4 ATS as a favorite of 7.5 points or fewer.
San Diego State has gone under the total in 12 straight games. Overall, San Diego State unders are 22-14 this season.
(5) Miami Hurricanes at
(4) UConn Huskies
Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET, Houston
Line: UConn -5.5
Money Line: Miami (+210) UConn (-260)
Total: 149.5
UConn is 25-12 ATS this season, including 9-1 ATS in its past 10 games. This will be the 36th time in 38 games UConn has been favored, which is the third-highest percentage in D-I behind Houston (37 of 37) and Arizona (34 of 35).
Miami is 21-14-1 ATS this season, including 4-0 ATS in the NCAA tournament.
Miami is 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season (7-4 outright), including 9-1 ATS in its past 10 games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS as an underdog of at least 3.5 points. Over the past three seasons, Miami is 34-12 ATS as an underdog, the best mark of any team in that span (minimum 20 games as underdog).
Miami is 8-1 ATS in the past two NCAA tournaments.
Big East teams are 22-11 ATS in the Final Four since 1985 tournament expansion. ACC teams are 27-22 ATS in that span, but they are 18-9 ATS since 2001.
Overs are 20-17 in UConn games this season. Unders are 18-17-1 in Miami games.
UConn is 8-1 outright and 7-2 ATS all-time in the Final Four.
UConn is 14-1 ATS in nonconference games this season. The Huskies are also 8-1 ATS in neutral-site games.
UConn is covering tournament games by an average of 17.5 PPG, the second-best mark by any Final Four team entering the Final Four since the tournament moved to 64 teams in 1985, only behind 2011 VCU (18.3). UConn has been favored in every game, while VCU was an underdog in every game that year.
A Miami upset (+5.5) would be the second-largest Final Four upset in the past 20 years, behind only 2014 UConn (+6.5) over Florida in the semifinals. The last five-point underdog to win outright was Wisconsin in 2015 (+5) when it upset undefeated Kentucky.