Picking a championship winner for any major sport before the season begins is never an easy thing to do, but it's arguably even more difficult for men's college basketball.
Aside from the sheer volume of teams across the nation, the single-elimination nature of the NCAA Tournament means there's an inherent randomness that other sports don't have. One loss in March and suddenly your season is over.
To that end, only four of the past 15 eventual national champions in men's college basketball have had preseason title odds shorter than +1200, with the most recent being Baylor (+800) in 2020-21, according to data from SportsOddsHistory.com.
The consensus favorite going into the 2025-26 fray is Purdue, who shows +850 at ESPN BET, but is as short as +750 and as long as +950 across the sportsbook marketplace. Houston is most often the second team from the top of odds boards, with ESPN BET (+850) and DraftKings (+950), making the Cougars co-favorites with the Boilermakers.
"When you look at odds that are nine-and-a-half to one on favorites, that tells you right there that, first of all, there's opportunities for many different teams to win this thing," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "It's wide open and a very difficult proposition to pick the winner."
Avello notes that Purdue and Houston, as well as perennial blue bloods Duke (+1100 at ESPN BET), UConn (+1400) and Kentucky (+1500), are the teams you would expect to see near the top, though the Blue Devils in particular have seen their odds slip since open based on their offseason.
Patrick Berbert, a college basketball trader at Caesars, says that his team opened Duke at +850 for 2025-26 just prior to the 2025 national championship game, but dropped them to +1400 after the team lost all five of last season's starters to the NBA Draft, including No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg. Aside from the traditional factors of departures for the draft and graduating seniors, the transfer portal has given bookmakers another major element to consider.
"Honestly, in today's era, it's harder than ever to be able to decide who's going to win the championship," Berbert said. "You kind of just have an idea of who's going to come back or who's been in the talk to transfer elsewhere, and then you adjust throughout the offseason based on who comes to the new teams and whatnot."
Berbert also noted a huge move up the board for Purdue based on notable "offseason buzz," which caused them to go from +2000 at open to +750, per Caesars odds.
BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle says his team sets odds "based on returning talent, recruiting, schedules and expectations" and also sees this as a generally wide open field with 15 teams at +2500 or shorter. The book notes Purdue, Houston, Duke and Kentucky as its four highest ticket and money attractors, with the Cougars and Wildcats specifically going down as significant liabilities.
Getting adjusted
Last season, Florida added to the storied legacy of preseason underdogs going on to win the national championship after they entered the 2024-25 regular season around +6000. The championship didn't necessarily come out of nowhere, though. The Gators dominated both challenging nonconference games and a gauntlet in SEC conference play to be one of the top seeds and favorites (+380, second behind only Duke) entering March Madness 2025.
It speaks to a general trend of at least a team or two per season exceeding preseason expectations to become a title contender, keeping bookmakers on their toes.
"Most years, there is a sleeper team out there that wasn't expected to do well and they'll play really well early on," Berbert said. "So it's really important, just on a day-to-day trading basis, to be able to spot these teams when they're exceeding expectations and to not be slow to react, especially in the futures market."
Florida won't sneak up on anyone this season (showing +1600 for the national title at ESPN BET after opening at +2500), but the question remains of who could have an early-season surge in the mold of the 2025 Gators.
One possibility is a team like BYU that thrust itself into the national spotlight with a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2025 and comes into the season at +2200, per ESPN BET odds. Other possibilities include past dominant programs like UCLA (+2800) or Arizona (+4000). Avello suggests that if these teams start hot in the early-season tournaments and conference play, they could see their odds shift significantly.
"You're going to see some major adjustments early and you're also going to see some major adjustments throughout the year," Avello said. "You're going to find some teams even deeper than that."
One team that bettors seem to believe in early on is San Diego State, the 2023 national runner-up and currently a 100-1 longshot at ESPN BET. The Aztecs are listed as BetMGM's largest liability, likely owing to a couple of significant bets at those long odds (+6000 at BetMGM).
St. John's Red Storm (+2000) has also caused a minor stir in the national championship markets -- garnering 4.4% of the handle at ESPN BET -- and Berbert notes they've been a popular pick to win the Big East over favorite UConn.
Wooden watch
Since the men's version of the Wooden Award was first given to the nation's most outstanding player back in 1977, only four freshmen have won the accolade, but it's quite the distinguished list: Kevin Durant (2007), Anthony Davis (2012), Zion Williamson (2019) and Flagg (2025).
Flagg was one of the most highly touted prospects coming out of high school in the sport's history. But because of the rarity of a freshman winning, not many sportsbooks had him favored going into last season, instead opting for upperclassmen Mark Sears, RJ Davis or Hunter Dickinson. All four players were decently close together on the odds board, there were several discrepancies on favorites, and some books like DraftKings even had Flagg favored from the get-go.
It's largely a different story going into the 2025-26 campaign. Purdue's Braden Smith, a senior, is the consensus Wooden Award favorite, showing +450 at ESPN BET. Berbert's team at Caesars, who has Smith at a market-low of +285, is very wary of his ability to take home the honor.
"I believe, truly, we've been ahead of the market on Braden Smith all offseason," Berbert said. "We believe that it's his award to lose. A lot of it, obviously, is driven on individual player success, but team success is involved also and with Purdue gaining a lot of traction in the outright market, them being the preseason number one team, that helps his case as well.
"He also has a chance to break Bobby Hurley's NCAA assists record this year and that will stand pretty well with the voters if he's able to do that."
While they might not be Flagg-caliber, there are a couple of freshmen that have the attention of bookmakers. Kansas' Darryn Peterson is second on ESPN BET's board at +750 and is second on most other sportsbooks' boards as well. Duke's Cameron Boozer (+1000) is also high on several odds boards and has attracted the most handle (21.9%) at ESPN BET.
BetMGM counts Smith and Peterson as its largest liabilities, but also names Texas Tech's JT Toppin (+1000 at ESPN BET) as a significant hazard. Avello also notes some outsized betting action on another freshman, Louisville's Mikel Brown Jr. (+5000), at DraftKings.