From 2000 to 2016, UConn was the model of how to build a successful women's college basketball program, winning an astounding 10 out of 17 national championships. It may have been jarring to many fans of the sport when the Huskies went on a "drought" from 2016 until last season, when they added another title to the trophy case.
UConn enters the 2025-26 season as the consensus favorite to win another national championship, showing +225 at ESPN BET, with odds not straying too far above or below that across the sportsbook marketplace. The Huskies actually opened third on the odds board in April, possibly owing to concerns for a drop-off in talent after Paige Bueckers was selected first overall in the WNBA draft.
That said, star players Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong are back and the return to prominence for UConn has bettors backing them at an astonishing clip, which likely contributed to the movement. Patrick Berbert, a college basketball trader at Caesars Sportsbook, says that about half of the wagers and handle on national championship futures at his shop have backed Geno Auriemma's squad.
"It's been all UConn money and tickets wise," Berbert told ESPN. "It's not very often you can say you lose an All American-type player and then you could be even better the next year. And that's kind of the way we look at them and the bettors look at them as well."
The Huskies also have the majority of handle at ESPN BET (42.1%) and BetMGM (29.2%), where they are also considered to be the largest liability.
BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle believes that they are "not runaway favorites," and if there is anyone bookmakers and bettors alike believe could get in the way, it's South Carolina (+280 at ESPN BET) and UCLA (+400).
Under head coach Dawn Staley, the Gamecocks began to take the mantle of the modern women's basketball dynasty, appearing in six Final Fours and winning three titles since 2017, barely missing out on a fourth by falling to UConn in the championship game last season. South Carolina opened as the favorite in April and performed admirably in the transfer portal, bringing in Ta'Niya Latson, who led the nation in scoring at Florida State.
However, South Carolina hasn't matched UConn's fervor with bettors heading into the season. Instead, much of the action is going towards UCLA, who have the second-most handle at ESPN BET (30.4%) and BetMGM (26.2%). The Bruins made their first Final Four appearance in program history last season.
"UCLA, they have [someone] who might be the best player in women's college basketball this year in Lauren Betts, so they can definitely give UConn a run for their money," said Berbert.
Shooting from midrange
Although women's college basketball has made significant strides towards parity in recent seasons, the UConns, South Carolinas and UCLAs of the sport keep it relatively top heavy and, thus, there is a lesser chance for major upsets come March. That generally means that the teams further down odds boards lengthen quickly and get significantly less support from the betting public.
"Unlike the men's, this is a totally different betting proposition and a different way that we set the odds overall," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. He elaborates that while Purdue is the consensus favorite on the men's side, they're not a sure thing to even get past the first two rounds of March Madness, as several highly seeded teams have seen their hopes dashed at that point in the tournament, including the Boilermakers themselves in recent seasons.
By contrast, Avello says that the top women's teams will be up to 40- or 50-point favorites in their first few NCAA tournament games and, therefore, have easier paths to the Final Four. To that end, UConn (-150), South Carolina (-130) and UCLA (-130) are all odds-on favorites to make it to the national semifinals, per ESPN BET lines.
The short odds for the national championship -- particularly for UConn and South Carolina -- means that there is inherently going to be a large gap to the rest of the field.
"Nothing obviously is easy when handicapping who's going to win it all, but it's a little easier per se than the men's just because the [women's] favorites tend to get there a little bit more than they do in men's basketball," said Berbert.
So who has any chance of stopping the Huskies, Gamecocks or Bruins? It starts with Texas (+1000 at ESPN BET) and LSU (+1200), who comprise the consensus next tier of national championship contenders across the sportsbook marketplace. Action differs across the marketplace, but the Tigers are the fourth-most supported team by total handle at ESPN BET, while the Longhorns are fourth at BetMGM.
Notre Dame (+1600) and USC (+2000) also reside on the fringes of the second tier, with the latter likely relying on a postseason return for reigning Wooden Award winner JuJu Watkins to make any sort of real run.
While it's true that chalk tends to dominate the women's game, sometimes that's just in hindsight: 2023 national champion LSU and 2024 national champion South Carolina actually began the seasons with the 14th- and eight-longest odds, respectively, to win the national championship, according to ESPN Research.
Wooden watch
With Watkins recovering from a torn ACL and Bueckers off to the pro game, it's a veritable blank slate for the 2025-26 women's Wooden Award.
Team success will have a solid influence on the voting, so it should come as little surprise that UConn's Strong (+175), UCLA's Betts (+225) and South Carolina's Latson (+550) are the top preseason favorites, according to ESPN BET odds.
Strong and Latson have each received solid support from bettors at the sportsbook in the early going, but Betts much less so, possibly an indication of team familiarity. Instead, Olivia Miles (+1200), who transferred from Notre Dame to TCU in the offseason, has the third-most handle at ESPN BET.
Growing the game
If there's one thing bookmakers consistently remark on when it comes to women's college basketball, it's the outstanding growth of the sport as a betting pastime in recent seasons.
"What a growth spurt over the last four, five years with this game, just amazing," said Avello. "We've seen plenty of growth in this sport, not only in the pregame, but the in-game wagering. And so, we look forward to another big year of women's basketball. It's getting more television time now and people are becoming much more familiar with the players."
Going into March Madness last season, BetMGM reported a 35% year-over-year increase in betting handle on women's college basketball. At the time, Berbert chalked it up to the starpower of Bueckers, Watkins and Caitlin Clark, but in the absence of those three, he's still bullish on the sport's ability to grow in the betting markets.
"Women's college basketball is definitely on the rise, as it has been. They gain a lot more attention each year and a lot of that has to do with the level of play that you're now seeing on the women's side of the sport," Berbert said recently. "Even though Caitlin Clark has left the sport, JuJu Watkins is going to be out this year, the handle is still there, it's getting better each year. So that's a really positive thing for the sport going forward and hopefully stays that way."