November hits and college football flips into two different sports.
One is for the playoff committee, the debate shows, the national trophy talk. The other is for us, those still grinding numbers and finding value, watching motivation and catching the teams the market left behind in September.
After Week 10, everyone is talking about Heisman and playoff résumés. I'm looking at West Virginia, North Carolina, Kansas State, and yes, even Arkansas and San Jose State. Because this time of year, there is still value to be had in the teams people forgot. Let's take a closer look.
West Virginia: Quietly turning a corner
The Mountaineers aren't getting much attention, and that's exactly why they become interesting. They started slow, the offense sputtered and they couldn't find any rhythm. Suddenly ... there has been movement.
4-5 straight up this season
4-4-1 ATS
Covered in three of the past four games
Four straight OVERs
West Virginia has gone from sleepwalking early to actually putting drives together, especially in the run game. Diore Hubbard is a real contributor, Cam Vaughn has been a consistent target, and Scotty Fox Jr. looks more confident week-to-week. It's some form of momentum, and late-season momentum in a forgotten program is usually not priced correctly.
I'm not betting them blind, just circling them. Teams that figure out who they are in late October tend to cash tickets in November.
North Carolina: Don't let Week 1 shape your brain
We all still remember that Week 1 disaster. TCU beat the Tar Heels so badly it was as if UNC had borrowed money and forgot to pay the Horned Frogs back. It was one of the ugliest season openers I've seen. But that's the problem with September: We remember the shock more than the progression.
Since then?
Bill Belichick's squad is 3-5 straight up
5-3 ATS
Covered three straight games
1-6-1 to the UNDER
The Tar Heels are not "good," but they're no longer a meltdown reel. The defense has settled in and they're ... competitive. UNDERs have crept in because the offense is simplified and the defense isn't hemorrhaging like it did early. After a win over Syracuse, it's safe to say that growth isn't sexy, but UNC has indeed gone from awful to functional. In November, functional can cover spreads and stay consistent with game totals.
Kansas State: Don't call it a comeback, but ...
K-State started like a team trying to learn football from YouTube tutorials. The Wildcats entered the season as Big 12 favorites and 1-3 out of the gate with the only win coming against North Dakota, and it was a narrow victory. The panic would have been louder if anyone were paying attention.
Fast forward to today, and the situation has changed:
4-5 overall
4-5 ATS
Covered three of the past four (and the miss was against one of the best defenses in the country, Texas Tech)
Five straight OVERs
This offense found a rhythm with Avery Johnson finally getting his footing. The Wildcats are playing fast and confident on offense, and the defense isn't stopping much, which is quietly perfect for total bettors. Sometimes stability looks like chaos with points, and that works.
Betting value is predictable patterns and K-State games have become predictable in the right ways.
Quiet sprinkles: Arkansas and San Jose State
Two more teams you might want to track but not necessarily want to watch:
Arkansas
2-7 straight up
3-6 ATS
7-2 to the OVER, including three straight
The Razorbacks are not winning and not covering, but the defense is giving up cardio numbers. Overs might keep printing because they have just enough offense to make you think, "Yeah, that checks out."
San Jose State
3-5 straight up
4-4 ATS
Covered three of the past five games
Five of the past six have gone OVER
Same theme: not talented enough to dominate, not incompetent enough to quit. And in late-season college football, that's a profitable middle.
The betting angle: Catching the teams that reinvent themselves
These programs aren't going to the playoffs or winning awards but they're improving, stabilizing, covering and hitting totals the market hasn't caught up to yet. And that's where I like to live -- in the late-season edges.
Sometimes the best bets in November are teams chasing respect, relevance or just a reason to finish strong. File these away for the weeks to come.