<
>

Fantasy basketball picks and betting tips for Saturday's NBA games

Grayson Allen of the Phoenix Suns is shooting 39.5% from beyond the arc. Rob Gray-Imagn Images

ESPN's fantasy basketball daily cheat sheet is your pregame destination before you set your lineups for that night's games. Here you'll read our best advice for the night, including a selection of players you can stream as well as game-by-game Injury reports.

Jump ahead
Top streamers | Best bets | Odds & Injury report

What you need to know for Saturday's games

A strong Saturday slate features eight intriguing matchups. With the sample size growing, early statistical themes are becoming bankable trends.

Adjusting long-held identities can prove challenging in sports. For nearly two decades, the Miami Heat have been a powerhouse under coach Erik Spoelstra with a methodical half-court offense and relentless defensive approach. Now, the team leads the league in pace by a full possession per 48 minutes. The Heat, no longer grinding down opponents, are trying to run you out of the gym.

Miami hosts the Portland Trail Blazers, a team second in pace; setting up a slate-high point total and multiple interesting streaming candidates to consider. A theme of today is lofty totals, as two games -- including this one in South Beach -- sit above 240 points. Many of today's contests sit firmly in the 230s, suggesting offensive optimism is in the air.

With a number of teams on the second leg of a back-to-back, injury reports will surface as game times approach. Given the lack of clarity for several matchups, make sure to check starting lineups prior to tip-off. Of the matchups with published injury reports, Austin Reaves being absent for the Los Angeles Lakers could ripple throughout that rotation.

With an eye on finding value among today's busy schedule, let's take a look at some players and betting angles of interest.

Saturday's fantasy stream team

Grayson Allen, SG, Phoenix Suns (Rostered in 52.1% of ESPN Leagues): The former Duke antagonist has become one of the better shooters in the league. This has been true for a few years, but it's more impressive how Allen is helping to carry the offense on a new-look roster. The key is volume; it's up all over the place for Allen. The Clippers have some quality defensive depth, but not much stopping power in a starting lineup sans Kawhi Leonard. The passing and steal production flesh out his fantasy profile.

Davion Mitchell, PG, Miami Heat (29.5%): A reclamation project for Miami, Mitchell has become a solid point-of-attack bulldog on defense and a capable floor-setter on offense. There won't be many big scoring or shooting lines, but tonight's up-tempo setup against the Trail Blazers does bode well for a full floor game from Mitchell.

Aaron Nesmith, SF, Indiana Pacers (18.8%): One of many playoff heroes from last summer's epic Finals run, Nesmith is handling more scoring and shooting duties than ever for a decimated Pacers roster. With so many wings and frontcourt players sidelined, Nesmith should be busy as a scorer, defender, and rebounder in today's matchup with the Nuggets.

Marcus Smart, SG/PG, Los Angeles Lakers (5.4%): This former Defensive Player of the Year should be busier tonight with Reaves out of the rotation. Complementary creation work could lead to a nice assist tally for Smart. The real key is playing time, as Smart could compile a helpful line if he tops 30 minutes.

McCormick's bets for Saturday

Zaccharie Risacher Over 12.5 points (-125)

Finding his rhythm from deep has been key to Risacher's improved play recently. Touch from deep allows him to attack close-outs with his length and agility. With the Lakers struggling to protect the paint, Risacher could get this done on floor-spacing and by getting two feet in the paint this evening. It helps his case that the offense needs more complementary juice with Trae Young sidelined.

Aaron Nesmith Over 3.5 rebounds (-160)

This 3-and-D wing has seen his rebounding chances rise in recent games due to the aforementioned wave of injuries to hit Indiana's wing and frontcourt depth charts. While Denver has some excellent rebounding talent, Nesmith can clear this by sheer exposure and playing time.

Joel Embiid Over 20.5 points (-115)

A few years ago, this would have been a first-half line for Embiid. In this new era of playing time restrictions, his scoring prop now reflects the risk of playing just 20-to-25 minutes. The thing is, playing time is on the rise for Embiid and he's actually looked a bit more spry in recent outings. The real point is he remains the all-time leader in points per 36 minutes in NBA history. Yes, ahead of Michael Jordan and Luka Doncic. Which is to say, scoring still comes easy to Embiid; it's the defense, transition play, rebounding, and general burst that are missing.

Projections and Injury Reports

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET


Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET

Line: Mavericks -4.5 (-105) | Wizards +4.5 (-115)
Money line: Mavericks -175 | Wizards +150
Total: 231.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 4, straight up 62%, 233.0 total points.

Injury Report:

Mavericks: Kyrie Irving, (OUT - Knee); Anthony Davis, (GTD - Calf); Dante Exum, (GTD - Knee); Dereck Lively II, (OUT - Knee)

Wizards: Bilal Coulibaly, (GTD - Lower Leg); Kyshawn George, (GTD - Illness)


Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
7:30 p.m. ET

Line: Raptors +5.5 (-115) | 76ers -5.5 (-105)
Money line: Raptors +155 | 76ers -185
Total: 236.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: 76ers by 5.8, straight up 66%, 236.6 total points.

Injury Report:

Raptors: None reported

76ers: Dominick Barlow, (OUT - Elbow); Paul George, (OUT - Knee)


Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks
8 p.m. ET

Line: Lakers -3.5 (-110) | Hawks +3.5 (-110)
Money line: Lakers -165 | Hawks +140
Total: 230.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Hawks by 2.7, straight up 58%, 232.9 total points.

Injury Report:

Lakers: Maxi Kleber, (GTD - Oblique); Austin Reaves, (OUT - Groin); Gabe Vincent, (OUT - Ankle); Adou Thiero, (OUT - Knee); LeBron James, (OUT - Back)

Hawks: Luke Kennard, (GTD - Illness); Trae Young, (OUT - Knee)


Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers
8 p.m. ET

Line: Bulls +8.5 (-115) | Cavaliers -8.5 (-105)
Money line: Bulls +270 | Cavaliers -340
Total: 240.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 11.2, straight up 79%, 241.1 total points.

Injury Report:

Bulls: Zach Collins, (OUT - Wrist); Coby White, (OUT - Calf)

Cavaliers: Lonzo Ball, (GTD - Knee); Max Strus, (OUT - Foot)


Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat
8 p.m. ET

Line: Blazers -3.5 (-110) | Heat +3.5 (-110)
Money line: Blazers -165 | Heat +140
Total: 241.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Heat by 1.3, straight up 54%, 237.1 total points.

Injury Report:

Blazers: Blake Wesley, (OUT - Foot); Damian Lillard, (OFS - Achilles); Shaedon Sharpe, (GTD - Calf); Scoot Henderson, (OUT - Hamstring); Matisse Thybulle, (OUT - Thumb)

Heat: Bam Adebayo, (GTD - Toe); Jaime Jaquez Jr., (GTD - Ankle); Norman Powell, (GTD - Ankle); Tyler Herro, (OUT - Ankle); Terry Rozier, (OUT - Not Injury Related)


New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET

Line: Pelicans +10.5 (-105) | Spurs -10.5 (-115)
Money line: Pelicans +400 | Spurs -600
Total: 224.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI Projection: Spurs by 10.9, straight up 78%, 229.7 total points.

Injury Report:

Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, (OUT - Achilles); Yves Missi, (OUT - Illness); Zion Williamson, (OUT - Hamstring); Jordan Poole, (OUT - Knee)

Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, (GTD - Hamstring); Luke Kornet, (GTD - Ankle); Dylan Harper, (OUT - Calf)


Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. ET

Line: Pacers +11.5 (-105) | Nuggets -11.5 (-115)
Money line: Pacers +450 | Nuggets -700
Total: 235.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 11.8, straight up 81%, 240.9 total points.

Injury Report:

Pacers: Obi Toppin, (OUT - Foot); Tyrese Haliburton, (OFS - Achilles); Andrew Nembhard, (GTD - Shoulder); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT - Toe); Kam Jones, (OUT - Back); T.J. McConnell, (OUT - Hamstring); Johnny Furphy, (OUT - Ankle); Quenton Jackson, (OUT - Hamstring)

Nuggets: None reported


Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers
10:30 p.m. ET

Line: Suns +5.5 (-115) | Clippers -5.5 (-105)
Money line: Suns +165 | Clippers -195
Total: 227.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 3.7, straight up 61%, 225.2 total points.

Injury Report:

Suns: Dillon Brooks, (GTD - Groin)

Clippers: Jordan Miller, (OUT - Hamstring); Kawhi Leonard, (OUT - Ankle); Kobe Sanders, (OUT - Knee)