The volatility and unpredictability of the 2025 college football season has rippled through the group of draft-eligible quarterbacks.
ESPN repolled 25 NFL scouts and executives about who will be the first quarterback taken in the 2026 NFL draft, with the results drastically different from six weeks ago.
In the latest poll, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza was the top vote-getter with 13 votes, putting him ahead of Oregon's Dante Moore (6) and Alabama's Ty Simpson (3). Notably, none of those quarterbacks received a vote in the first poll, and all have eligibility remaining.
The other three quarterbacks receiving votes were Oklahoma's John Mateer (1), Cincinnati's Brendan Sorsby (1) and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers (1). Only Sellers and Mateer had votes in the first poll.
"It's not a stellar class," one scout told ESPN. "If you add the maybes [who have eligibility and could leave school], now it gets interesting. The top is better than last year's class, for sure."
The top of this year's crop has flipped from Sept. 20, when seven different quarterbacks received votes, with Sellers (8) edging out LSU's Garrett Nussmeier (7). Both players and their teams have struggled this season. Others receiving votes in the first QB1 poll were Miami's Carson Beck (3), Mateer (3), Penn State's Drew Allar (2), Arizona State's Sam Leavitt (1) and Texas' Arch Manning (1).
The sentiment regarding the class has soured a bit since the initial polling. Along with the dip in play from Sellers and Nussmeier, Allar suffered a season-ending injury and Manning hasn't resembled anything close to what his family and recruiting pedigrees projected.
While Mendoza is the top vote-getter, he has yet to establish himself as a no-brainer No. 1 overall pick. He is trending that way, but there is not yet conviction behind those projections.
Mendoza transferred from Cal and has taken a leap under coach Curt Cignetti and the tutelage of offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan and quarterbacks coach Chandler Whitmer. His completion percentage is 72.3%, up from 68.7%, and he has thrown 25 touchdowns, nine more than last season at Cal. He has also rushed for four touchdowns and is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, up from 7.8.
What do scouts like? They start with the basics of him being 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds. He idolizes Tom Brady, which is viewed as a strong North Star for a prospect.
"He has 'wow' throws and playmaking passer ability," one scout told ESPN. "He can anticipate post-snap."
Added another: "He's decisive, and he sees everything well. He's got accuracy down the field and is very tough in the pocket."
There was a play against Iowa where Mendoza hung in the pocket and got decked by a Hawkeyes linebacker while delivering a perfect ball to a receiver in tight coverage.
Moore's emergence has been sudden. He has started 13 games, including five at UCLA in 2023 before backing up Dillon Gabriel at Oregon last season. A redshirt sophomore who entered college as ESPN's No. 2 overall player, Moore is 6-3 and 206 pounds. He attempted just eight passes last season but has maximized his starting role in 2025, with 19 touchdowns, a 71.4% completion percentage and 1,772 passing yards.
Simpson didn't start a game until this season, which has led to speculation in NFL circles that he will return to college. (Quarterbacks with under 25 starts don't have a consistent track record of NFL success.) Simpson has soared onto radars with 20 touchdowns and just one interception. He has completed 67.8% of his passes and thrown for 2,184 yards.
Sorsby might be the biggest surprise. While he struggled in high-wattage spots against Nebraska and Utah, he has clearly progressed.
One scout summed him up this way: "He's big, tough, athletic and smart. He's a leader and can make off-schedule plays and change arm angles. He's got the 'It.' I think he's very gifted."