This summer, rumors of potential NHL expansion are reaching a high point. As expansion appears to become a distinct possibility, as part of Insider's 2013-14 NHL preseason coverage, we're running a mock expansion draft. If the NHL were to expand instead of relocate for its next new team -- be it in Seattle, Quebec City or elsewhere -- by what rules would the expansion draft be bound, which players would be protected and which players (out of the unprotected) would the new teams select?
Over the next three days, we're running through the answers to all of those questions, with the help of Insiders Craig Custance and former assistant GM Frank Provenzano, starting with the protected lists. Tuesday, Custance breaks down the Eastern Conference -- which players teams would protect and the thought process behind those decisions.
Expansion in the NHL is coming. Regardless of whether or not it's good for the league, the huge financial windfall it will bring current NHL owners is too hard to pass up while attractive markets like Seattle and Quebec line up for the opportunity.
For the players, it means more jobs. This is no small consideration during a time when talented veterans still remain unsigned on the unrestricted free-agent market.
So with this project, we're examining what expansion would look like if it happened right now: two new NHL teams -- Seattle and Quebec -- playing this season.
When one NHL GM heard about the idea, he immediately envisioned teams using an expansion draft to dump salary in a season where money is tight.
"There wouldn't be a player available under $5 million," he said, describing his vision of what would happen if an expansion draft was held this summer.
In projecting protected teams, the primary considerations were balancing the salary cap along with fielding a competitive team. Using ground rules mirroring previous expansion drafts -- along with tweaks to acknowledge the current environment of the salary cap and no-movement clauses -- we went through and projected exactly who would be available, based on available data.
In this column, I project the East. Frank Provenzano will project the West on Wednesday. When all the teams have designated the players protected and exposed, on Thursday we will draft two new teams -- the Seattle Metropolitans and Quebec Nordiques -- who will begin play in 2013-14.
There's a full rules breakdown found here, but here's a brief summary:
Teams that protect one goalie are allowed to keep five defensemen and nine forwards. Teams that protect two goalies can keep only three defensemen and seven forwards. In the two-goalie scenario, teams must expose a third goalie who played either six games last season or 20 in the previous two seasons. As you'll see below, that becomes an important distinction.
All players with a no-move clause active for the current season are automatically on a team's protected list.
Teams must expose one defenseman and two forwards who played either 23 games last season or a total of 55 games the previous two seasons.
The following players are exempt from the draft: All first- and second-year professionals and all unsigned draft choices. So if you notice a key, young player on a team not protected, chances are he's exempt.
Note: A full list of the unprotected players -- the pool from which we'll be drafting -- will be published along with Thursday's draft results, although I do mention a number of the prominent unprotected players in the notes below.
The protected lists: Eastern Conference
F: Patrice Bergeron (NMC), Loui Eriksson, Jarome Iginla, Chris Kelly, David Krejci, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand, Jordan Caron, Carl Soderberg
D: Zdeno Chara (NMC), Matt Bartkowski, Johnny Boychuk, Mike Moore, Dennis Seidenberg
G: Tuukka Rask (NMC)
Notes: Two key, young defensemen in Dougie Hamilton and Torey Krug were exempt. Youth in goal behind Rask (Malcolm Subban and Niklas Svedberg are exempt) allows Boston to hang on to most of its forward depth, although keeping younger players like Caron and Soderberg exposes valuable veterans like Gregory Campbell and Shawn Thornton. Exposing Adam McQuaid, Campbell and Thornton fulfills availability requirements.
F: Luke Adam, Tyler Ennis, Steve Ott, Drew Stafford, Thomas Vanek, Cody Hodgson, Corey Tropp
D: Tyler Myers (NMC), Christian Ehrhoff (NMC), Jamie McBain
Notes: Exposing Jhonas Enroth, Henrik Tallinder, John Scott and Ville Leino fulfill positional requirements and losing Leino would give the Sabres a chance to shed a free-agent mistake. Zemgus Girgensons, Mikhail Grigorenko and Marcus Foligno are among the key exemptions. A no-move clause removes the temptation of trying to offer up Myers' huge contract to an expansion team. It's not easy leaving Tallinder exposed, considering how well he's played in the past with Myers, but McBain's age gives him the edge on a rebuilding team.
F: Tuomo Ruutu (NMC), Eric Staal, Alexander Semin, Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner, Jiri Tlusty, Zac Dalpe, Zach Boychuk, Riley Nash
D: Mike Komisarek (NMC), Tim Gleason, Andrej Sekera, Jay Harrison, Michal Jordan
G: Cam Ward
Notes: Justin Faulk doesn't need protection because he's played just two years professionally. Ryan Murphy is another good, young player who is exempt. Exposing Joni Pitkanen meets veteran defensive requirement, although it's motivated by his uncertain health and may raise fairness concerns from expansion teams. He's expected to miss the start of the season while recovering from a broken heel. Exposing forwards Drayson Bowman, Nathan Gerbe, Patrick Dwyer, Aaron Palushaj and Kevin Westgarth more than satisfies forward availability requirements. An expansion team could do a lot worse than the exposed Anton Khudobin in goal its first few seasons.
F: Nathan Horton (NMC), Marian Gaborik, R.J. Umberger, Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, Nick Foligno, Mark Letestu, Matt Calvert
D: James Wisniewski (NMC), Fedor Tyutin (NMC), Jack Johnson, Cody Goloubef, David Savard
Notes: Cam Atkinson and Tim Erixon are exempt. Exposing Blake Comeau and Jared Boll fulfills forward obligations and no-move clauses for Wisniewski and Tyutin don't leave any veteran options to expose on defense outside of Johnson and Nikita Nikitin. Nikitin has been a good fit in Columbus but the rules force his exposure, considering Johnson's potential as a franchise defenseman. It would be a tough blow for Columbus.
F: Daniel Alfredsson (NMC), Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Stephen Weiss, Johan Franzen, Darren Helm, Justin Abdelkader, Joakim Andersson, Tomas Tatar
D: Niklas Kronwall, Kyle Quincey, Jonathan Ericsson, Jakub Kindl, Brendan Smith
G: Jimmy Howard (NMC)
Notes: The Red Wings' philosophy of letting players develop as professionals means that young players like Tatar, Andersson and Smith have to be protected since they have more than two years of pro service time. Notable exemptions include Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Jurco, Danny DeKeyser and Riley Sheahan. Exposing Brian Lashoff satisfies exposed defenseman requirements, and veteran forwards Mikael Samuelsson, Todd Bertuzzi, Patrick Eaves, Drew Miller and Jordin Tootoo all would be available. The Red Wings would be one of the teams that might get cap relief from an expansion draft.
F: Tomas Fleischmann (NMC), Scottie Upshall (NMC), Kris Versteeg, Tomas Kopecky, Sean Bergenheim, Shawn Matthias, Marcel Goc, Joey Crabb, Scott Timmins
D: Brian Campbell, Ed Jovanovski, Dmitry Kulikov, Colby Robak, Mike Weaver
Notes: Erik Gudbranson and Jonathan Huberdeau are notable exemptions. Matt Gilroy fulfills veteran availability requirements on defense, while it's a little harder to get two forwards, with Scott Gomez and Bobby Butler the best the Panthers can offer expansion teams up front. A no-movement clause forces the protection of Upshall, even though it might be nice for Florida to get out of a contract that averages $3.5 million the next two seasons.
F: Danny Briere (NMC), David Desharnais, Lars Eller, Brian Gionta, Travis Moen, Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, Brandon Prust, Ryan White
D: Francois Bouillon, Josh Gorges, Andrei Markov, Douglas Murray, P.K. Subban
G: Carey Price
Notes: Montreal has some quality exemptions in Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher, Raphael Diaz and Alexei Emelin, and that allows the Canadiens to protect deeper into their roster. Davis Drewiske played just enough to qualify as a viable option to expose on defense to fulfill requirements. Leaving Rene Bourque exposed as one of the veteran forward requirements helps Montreal shed money if he's selected.
F: Patrik Elias (NMC), Ryane Clowe (NMC), Adam Henrique, Dainius Zubrus, Jaromir Jagr, Jacob Josefson, Michael Ryder, Travis Zajac, Andrei Loktionov
D: Bryce Salvador, Andy Greene, Mark Fayne, Marek Zidlicky, Peter Harrold
Notes: It's not easy -- and it's almost sacrilegious -- leaving Martin Brodeur exposed, but veteran minimums require that teams keeping two goalies must expose one who has played at least six games the previous season or 20 games in the past two combined. The Devils don't have a goalie on their reserve list outside Brodeur and Schneider that fits those requirements, forcing one of the two to be exposed. Considering Schneider's age, upside and potential to be New Jersey's goalie for the next decade, Brodeur has to go. Exposing Anton Volchenkov frees the Devils of money that might be better spent elsewhere.
F: John Tavares (NMC), Josh Bailey, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Cal Clutterbuck, Michael Grabner, Matt Martin, Kyle Okposo, Matt Moulson, Frans Nielsen
D: Lubomir Visnovsky, Travis Hamonic, Andrew MacDonald, Matt Carkner, Brian Strait
G: Kevin Poulin
Notes: The decision to keep Poulin over Evgeni Nabokov has everything to do with age and the notion that Nabokov's best goaltending is behind him. At this point in his career, Nabokov is replaceable. At least there's still upside with the 23-year-old Poulin. Thomas Hickey was a nice pickup for Garth Snow and the Islanders, but one veteran defenseman had to go to fulfill requirements.
F: Brad Richards (NMC), Rick Nash (NMC), Derek Stepan, Brian Boyle, Derick Brassard, Ryan Callahan, Taylor Pyatt, Mats Zuccarello, Benoit Pouliot
D: Michael Del Zotto, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, John Moore, Marc Staal
Notes: The Rangers might lose some grit exposing Arron Asham and Derek Dorsett to meet forward requirements. Anton Stralman was an effective defenseman for the Rangers last season, but we still like Moore's long-term potential better. Martin Biron has been the ideal backup to Lundqvist and losing him would be a setback. Leaving Richards exposed would be preferred, but his no-movement clause doesn't allow it.
F: Clarke MacArthur (NMC), Milan Michalek, Chris Neil, Bobby Ryan, Jim O'Brien, Jason Spezza, Kyle Turris, Stephane Da Costa, Colin Greening
D: Chris Phillips, Eric Gryba, Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot, Patrick Wiercioch
Notes: The youth of the Senators' roster means guys like Cory Conacher, Mika Zibanejad and Robin Lehner are all exempt, which helps the cause in Ottawa. Exposing Erik Condra and Zack Smith fulfills forward requirements, while Joe Corvo does it on defense.
F: Scott Hartnell (NMC), Vincent Lecavalier (NMC), Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, Max Talbot, Jakub Voracek, Jay Rosehill
D: Kimmo Timonen (NMC), Chris Pronger (NMC), Luke Schenn, Braydon Coburn, Mark Streit
G: Ray Emery
Notes: We get into some expansion-list gray area here, with the strict rule that any player with a no-move clause needs to be protected. In this case, that means the Flyers must protect Pronger even though he's done playing. That makes Nicklas Grossmann and Andrej Meszaros available, although for a team in cap trouble that could be a good thing. There was also a tough decision to make in goal in choosing between Emery and Steve Mason. Mason is the younger goalie, and the Flyers were impressed with how he played after being acquired from Columbus, but Emery is the better short-term solution and the Flyers are a team looking to win right now.
F: Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Sidney Crosby (NMC), Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz, James Neal, Brandon Sutter, Craig Adams, Dustin Jeffrey, Joe Vitale
D: Paul Martin (NMC), Kris Letang, Matt Niskanen, Brooks Orpik, Rob Scuderi
G: Tomas Vokoun
Notes: Protecting Vokoun over Marc-Andre Fleury was one of the toughest choices of this exercise, because it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Fleury regain the form that made him one of the game's best young goalies. But for a team with some salary-cap challenges, the ability to shed $5 million in salary for the next two seasons while giving the goaltending duties to a capable veteran in the short term makes sense. We also can't ignore Fleury's playoff save percentages of .891, .899, .834 and .883 since winning a Stanley Cup. Up front, losing Jussi Jokinen's $2.1 million salary wouldn't be so bad for the Penguins.
F: Martin St. Louis, Valtteri Filppula, Ryan Malone, Teddy Purcell, Steven Stamkos, Nate Thompson, Dana Tyrell, Michael Angelidis, Pierre-Cedric Labrie
D: Sami Salo, Mattias Ohlund (NMC), Victor Hedman, Matt Carle, Eric Brewer
G: Ben Bishop
Notes: The original plan here was to keep both goalies -- Bishop and Anders Lindback -- but there isn't a third goalie on the Tampa reserve list that fits minimum-game requirements. Lindback is still just 25 years old, and showed signs in March of getting comfortable with the Lightning, finishing that month with a .933 save percentage. It's still quite possible he becomes a solid No. 1 goalie at some point. But the 6-foot-7 Bishop has earned the starting job, with a .920 save percentage last season, including a .917 save percentage following the trade to a suspect defensive team in Tampa. If the Lightning were to lose one of those goalies, it helps that they have prospect Andrei Vasilevski on the way. Ohlund's no-move clause means he's a required protected player, which is unfortunate for Tampa. And we like Malone, just not at $4.5 million the next two seasons, so he's off the protected list.
F: Phil Kessel (NMC), David Clarkson (NMC), Nazem Kadri, Tyler Bozak, Joe Colborne, Joffrey Lupul, James van Riemsdyk, Dave Bolland, Jay McClement
D: Carl Gunnarsson, Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson, Korbinian Holzer, Paul Ranger
Notes: This is another case where goaltending requirements forced an impossible decision. Ideally, the Maple Leafs would protect both Bernier and James Reimer, but they don't have a third goaltender on their reserve list who played the minimum numbers of games to expose. That means Reimer becomes available in this expansion draft, and is likely at the top of the draft list for any expansion team. We added Nikolai Kulemin along with John-Michael Liles to the exposed group in an attempt to shed salary, despite the veteran requirements already being met.
F: Martin Erat (NMC), Mikhail Grabovski (NMC), Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, Jason Chimera, Brooks Laich, Alex Ovechkin
D: Karl Alzner, John Carlson, John Erskine, Mike Green, Tomas Kundratek
Notes: It's not easy letting a talented goaltender like Michal Neuvirth walk, but there are some who believe Philipp Grubauer might be the best goalie of the three in the system, so exposing Neuvirth might just start the Grubauer era a little sooner. Grubauer, the No. 112 overall pick in 2010, finished last season in Hershey with a .919 save percentage in 28 games. The Caps risk losing depth by exposing guys like Jay Beagle, Eric Fehr and Mathieu Perreault, but it's nothing that's going to change the course of the franchise. Some might consider leaving Ward exposed because of his hefty salary, but his offensive production last season under Adam Oates was solid, with 20 points in 39 games, two more than he had in 73 games the previous season.