Aaron Judge's diagnosis of a flexor tendon strain in his right elbow might have been framed as a "mostly good news" situation by the New York Yankees, but pardon us fantasy managers for grasping hold of the "bad news" viewpoint, that being that the No. 1 player in our game is now sidelined and has rekindled his injury-history question.
Even now, five days after Judge's most recent appearance, he's still the top-scoring hitter in terms of fantasy points (402, or 23 more than Shohei Ohtani has as a hitter alone), as well as the No. 1 name on our Player Rater. Such players, obviously, are irreplaceable.
Nevertheless, moving forward without Judge is what our fantasy teams must do -- and that spawns a host of questions. How devastating is it, really, to lose a top-shelf talent to injury?
What are Judge's rest-of-season prospects, considering his Yankees have spun this as merely a potential 10-day absence?
Should fantasy managers in ESPN leagues (gasp) drop Judge?
This isn't a common occurrence
Though our collective memories are that only our first-round fantasy picks are the ones stricken with long-term injuries, Judge's example -- the clear No. 1 overall player getting hurt for an extended period and, for this argument, let's define that as a minimum 10-day absence -- is actually unusual.
I scrolled back through the last 45 completed seasons, spanning fantasy baseball's "rotisserie era" (1980-present), and found that only two top-scoring hitters during that time either landed on the IL or endured at least a 10-day absence due to injury after the All-Star break (counting only No. 1 rankings at the date of injury): Edgar Martinez, in 1996, and David Ortiz, in 2012.
Shohei Ohtani would have led in fantasy scoring at the time of his September 2023 injury if we counted his pitching contributions, but as a hitter he was 75 points behind then-leader Ronald Acuna Jr., while Edwin Encarnacion was leading in scoring at the time of his July 2014 injury, but that happened days before the All-Star break.
Interestingly enough, all four of these players spent significant time as designated hitters -- Martinez, Ortiz and Ohtani played there full-time -- and all but Ohtani were (like Judge, who is 33) at least 31 years old at the time. None had a similar injury to Judge's, as Martinez suffered bruised ribs, Ortiz had an Achilles' strain, Ohtani injured his oblique, and Encarnacion dealt with a quadriceps strain, but the quartet had checkered results after returning -- Ortiz appeared in only one more game in 2012 -- fueling worries about Judge's rest-of-year contributions.
Judge's injury is also unusual
Expanding the field to any hitter, not simply the ones who were carrying their fantasy teams at the time at the time of injury, Judge's injury -- a flexor tendon strain in his right elbow -- isn't one we commonly see in hitters.
Perusing my injury database, I could find only seven hitters across the past decade (2016-25) who dealt with any type of flexor tendon injury (counting those specifically listed as such at the time of IL placement): Justin Morneau and Steve Pearce, in 2016; Jay Bruce and Aaron Hicks, in 2019; P.J. Higgins, in 2021; Mitch Garver, in 2022; and Endy Rodriguez, in 2024.
Six of those seven players ultimately required surgical intervention (Bruce was the exception), and every one required at least a month's absence before returning from either surgery or his initial IL stint. That said, none was even close to the caliber hitter that Judge is. Garver's example -- he returned after a 10-day absence to serve exclusively as a DH, hitting for more power after his stint (5.6% HR rate, .236 ISO) than before it (3.4%, .141 ISO) -- is the closest comparable as far as timetable and expected post-injury role.
Flexor strains are much more common for pitchers, accounting for over 90% of such IL stints in my database. Those who were able to make a return within the same season generally missed 1-2 months, but again, that's not an apt comparison point for Judge, being that a pitcher's exclusive value is throwing the baseball, which Judge isn't planning to do initially upon his return.
How devastating is this?
Should Judge indeed miss only the 10-day minimum, then be able to hit at even 90% of his prior self for the remainder of the season, fantasy owners might scarcely notice the effects of his absence in mixed leagues. It's a different matter altogether in larger leagues -- think 20-team mixed and AL-only types -- but the free agent pool is plenty stocked with short-term replacements.
It's the uncertainty surrounding Judge's recovery that amplifies this question. Remember, the Yankees have no incentive to be completely open about Judge's rest-of-season prognosis, especially not with the trade deadline (their best and perhaps last chance to acquire right field reinforcements) quickly approaching. It's entirely possible that Judge might require a lengthier IL stint than 10 days, perform at less than 90% of his prior self while managing the injury as a DH, ultimately require some sort of surgical correction, or some combination of the the above.
Let's take year-to-date points leagues returns to illustrate the impact of losing Judge. Among primary-position outfielders who have been available in between 65-85% of ESPN leagues on any given date this season, an effective "replacement level" for the position, here are the production levels you can expect:
Next 10 days: 2.06 FPTS/G, 13.0 total FPTS per player, 28% scored 20-plus FPTS
Next 20 days: 2.05 FPTS/G, 25.7 total FPTS per player, 25% scored 40-plus FPTS
Next 30 days: 2.04 FPTS/G, 37.8 total FPTS per player, 22% scored 60-plus FPTS
That's quite a decline from Judge's 3.90 fantasy points per game thus far and, if we're to assume conservatively that he'll miss 20 days and perform at 90% of his prior self after returning, that would put him and his waiver wire replacement (as they'd occupy the same roster spot) at 572 fantasy points for the season. That's 60 behind what Judge's pace was at the conclusion of his most recent game played, or a per-game drop-off of 1.02 fantasy points per game the rest of the way.
That's a significant hit to fantasy teams, but not as catastrophic as you might think, as only six other hitters (Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Tucker, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto) are on pace for a greater rest-of-season total. While Judge's injury absolutely stings, but the only truly scary part of it is the prospect that his recovery goes more poorly than that 20-day, 90%-production estimate.
So, should you cut Judge?
That Judge could miss this much time, yet still find himself among the top seven scorers in terms of fantasy points for the season, is testament to his gargantuan raw ability. There are only a handful of truly elite performers in the game -- untouchable players in fantasy leagues. Heck, eight weeks ago, I mused about the absurdity of even trading Judge in this very space.
That said, every roster situation is different, and there will be teams -- a small percentage, granted -- in desperate enough circumstances to need to clear any and all available space. Manager Aaron Boone's optimistic update on Judge's recovery -- the slugger is ramping up baseball activities with a target return date of Aug. 5, meaning a minimum IL stay -- makes it darned near imperative you keep him rostered. Hey, you do get a pair of IL spots in ESPN's standard format!
Sum it all up and, yes, there are reasons to be concerned about Judge's potential contributions down the stretch. He's also one of the most special players we've ever seen, and that fuels the general sense of optimism surrounding his recovery.
Keep Judge... but keep your fingers crossed.