When the NHL Awards are handed out each year, there are accusations of geographic bias.
Sometimes it's due to the size of a market. More often it's complaints about how one division or conference is covered by a larger press corps than another -- the storied "East Coast bias" that always seems so severe in theory, but ineffectual in practice. (Fun fact: The Western Conference has four of the past five Norris Trophy winners.)
But in this wacky 56-game sprint of an NHL season, those laments about "bias" creeping into awards voting may have renewed merit, thanks to the existence of the realigned North Division, aka the "We The North" Division, aka the All-Canadian Division.
I do a lot of radio hits in Canada. Recently, the preamble to those chats has been a variation on this: "As you know, we're all obsessively watching the division with all the Canadian teams, where every night is a playoff game and every victory or loss feels like life or death. So since we have no idea what's happening outside of these seven proud Canadian franchises, what's up the Florida Panthers, eh?"
It's not just the media. Everyone is obsessed with following the All-Canadian Division. "You know what the circumstances are in your division. So you maybe focus on that a little bit more than you did in the previous years," Toronto Maple Leafs star John Tavares said this week.
Singular focus isn't exclusive to the North Division. Because there are no games between non-division opponents -- and no conferences at all -- in the 2021 season, fans and media are naturally going to watch more games that impact their teams directly. Combine that with the intra-divisional schedule and there may not be as much time watching other teams as in traditional interconference seasons.
We've gone from a buffet of teams to a prix fixe menu.
That said, I'm confident that the dedicated voters for these awards will survey the entire league for worthy candidates, taking on this responsibility with the stoic seriousness and hyperbolic sense of duty that makes Baseball Hall of Fame voters look apathetic by comparison.
Here's the NHL Awards Watch for February. This is informed speculation, taken from conversations around hockey and with voters, regarding the current contenders for each award. Keep in mind that the Pro Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina. Also keep in mind the "You Gotta Be In It To Win It" protocol for the Hart and the Jack Adams.
All stats from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
Current leader: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (22 points)
Watch out for: Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers (21)
Dark horse: Mitchell Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs (14)
Rocket Richard Trophy (leading goal scorer)
Current leaders: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers; Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks (8 goals)
Watch out for: Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche (7)
Dark horse: Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames (6)
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Leader: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Finalists: Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers; Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins
There isn't a more glaring example in the NHL of two players dragging their team along than the mule-like work of McDavid and Draisaitl. Through the first 11 games of the season, they both averaged around two points per game, trading turns leading the league in scoring. This season, they're doing it with a power play that's tremendous (28.6% conversion rate), but not clicking at the rate last season's did, which was the best the NHL had seen in 40 years.
While Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy for the first time last season, with McDavid finishing fifth, this is currently Connor's award to lose. He was the top name on every ballot that we received from the PHWA voters we canvassed, including one who simply answered "McJesus." He remains the NHL's human highlight reel, an unstopped offensive force who quietly (at least in comparison with the loud screams his point production creates) is becoming a better defensive player.
Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche would seem like a natural third choice here, what with the 14 points in 10 games and the fact that he's been a two-time Hart finalist. But his "week-to-week" injury likely means a downtick in his MVP candidacy, so we'll go with the Bruins' "Little Ball of Hate." Marchand has six goals and seven assists in nine games, and anyone who has seen the Bruins knows he's been their engine -- especially in the injury absence of David Pastrnak, 2019-20 Hart finalist, to start the season. He's never been an MVP finalist in his career. Perhaps that should change.
Other players with strong early Hart cases are center Joe Pavelski of the Dallas Stars, winger Mitchell Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs, center Nicklas Backstrom of the Washington Capitals, center Anze Kopitar of the Los Angeles Kings, winger Mark Stone of the Vegas Golden Knights and two goalies worth your attention: Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning, who could be the best player on the best team; and Jacob Markstrom of the Calgary Flames, who once again is taking an average team and making it better than average.
One more name to watch: Tyler Toffoli of the Montreal Canadiens, if only because he gets to play the Vancouver Canucks four more times, having scored eight of his nine goals against them this season.
Norris Trophy (top defenseman)
Leader: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: John Carlson, Washington Capitals; Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning
Makar isn't as much of a favorite for the Norris as McDavid is for the Hart, but he's close. His 11 points in 10 games has him tied for the lead for defensemen in scoring. Once again his advanced metrics are next-level: His seven goals scored above average leads the NHL, better than both McDavid and Draisaitl. Whether it was his new partnership with Devon Toews (before his injury) or just having another season under his belt, Makar has noticeably better defensive metrics this season after winning the Calder Trophy in 2019-20 for his offensive flourish.
Ironically, offensive flourish wasn't enough for Carlson last season, who finished behind Roman Josi for the Norris Trophy. He's again near the top of the scoring race with 11 points, even if the defensive side of his game at 5-on-5 remains at issue (42.81 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5). If his offense was good enough to earn him a nod last season, it could be again this season.
Hedman had eight points in his first seven games for the Lightning, skating over 26 minutes per game. He's in his Nicklas Lidstrom years, where you can just pencil his name in as a finalist. A nod this season would be his fifth in a row. Considering all the goodwill he built up in winning the Conn Smythe in the bubble, I say he does it.
An interesting name that topped one voter's ballot: Jeff Petry of the Montreal Canadiens.
Petry would be a hipster pick, no doubt, but 'twas a time when we said the same about Jaccob Slavin. He's off to an incredible start for Montreal with 11 points in nine games, and is fourth in the NHL in goals scored above average (5.4) among all players. He's strung together two strong seasons in Montreal, which looks like it's going to be a contender out of the North Division. Name recognition is a problem when you get to leaguewide love for Petry -- he's not even the most famous defenseman on his own team, thanks to Shea Weber. He doesn't quite seem a finalist yet, but excelling in the North Division could mean his performance is amplified.
Other defensemen to keep in mind are Charlie McAvoy of the Boston Bruins and Shea Theodore of the Vegas Golden Knights, both of whom topped ballots. Keep an eye on John Klingberg of the Dallas Stars and Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks, the latter of whom might lead the NHL in points for a defenseman this season, although his sophomore campaign thus far has been below the standards of his rookie one.
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
Leader: Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild
Finalists: Kevin Lankinen, Chicago Blackhawks; Ty Smith, New Jersey Devils
When it comes to forwards, the Calder usually goes to the player who leads the NHL in goals or points for rookies and/or the first-year forward who has the most dynamic highlight reel. Kaprizov could have all three of those boxes checked by the end of the season. He has eight points in his first 10 games for the Wild, and hasn't even started producing on the power play yet. Keep in mind that he was a pro over in the KHL since 2014.
Given the current rookie crop, it wouldn't surprise me to see one forward, one defenseman and one goaltender eventually comprise the three finalists. Going with that model, the Devils' Smith has been the top rookie blueliner. He has eight points in nine games, although it's worth mentioning that it'll be hard for a defenseman to win the Calder with impressive numbers this season after the superhuman offensive stats generated by Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes in last year's rookie race. It's like "Pearl Harbor" trying to win Best Picture after "Titanic."
Teammate and housemate Jack Hughes told me that Smith gives the Devils an offensive force on the blueline that it's lacked.
(For the record: Hughes, in his second NHL season, said he doesn't force Smith to do the majority of the cleaning. "No, I wouldn't say I pull rank. We try to get a rotation going. But he's pretty good around the apartment," he told me.)
For the goalie spot, Lankinen is the surprising choice of a couple of our PHWA voters. Through six games, the 25-year-old Finn had a .937 save percentage and a 1.97 goals-against average for a pretty terrible Blackhawks team. Ultimately, heavily hyped rookies like the Rangers' Igor Shesterkin or the Islanders' Ilya Sorokin might overtake Lankinen if they find their grooves, but for now the Chicago netminder has been a revelation for a team whose goaltending looked poised to be the worst in the NHL.
That said, it's a wide-open rookie race. Keep an eye on Washington Capitals goalie Vitek Vanecek and Wild netminder Kaapo Kahkonen; Vancouver Canucks forward Nils Hoglander, Ottawa Senators forward Josh Norris and Blackhawks forward Pius Suter; as well as New York Rangers defenseman K'Andre Miller and Colorado Avalanche blueliner Bowen Byram.
Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)
Note: The NHL's general managers vote for this award
Leader: John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks
Finalists: Jacob Markstrom, Calgary Flames; Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning
I didn't include Gibson among the Hart Trophy potentials because I don't expect the Ducks to be anywhere near the playoffs,. That could eventually hurt him for the Vezina, which is traditionally a wins-happy award. (I mean, the general managers aren't exactly in the "good job, good effort" business.) But John Gibson is back to being John Gibson after a down season in 2019-20, with a .921 save percentage and two shutouts in his first nine games. He's been the Ducks' best player and their best chance to win.
Vasilevskiy will have the wins, as he's off to a 5-1-1 start and led the NHL in wins for the past three seasons. He's also playing for the defending Stanley Cup champions, posting a .925 save percentage early in the season. Like Hedman with the Norris, you just pencil Vasilevskiy into the top three for this award, as he's been a finalist for the past three seasons.
Markstrom is frankly owed a nomination from last season, when he carried the Vancouver Canucks to the postseason. After signing as a free agent in Calgary, he's carrying a new team in the North Division, with a .924 save percentage in seven games. That the Canucks miss him dearly will only bolster his case.
Keep an eye on Philipp Grubauer of the Colorado Avalanche and potentially Mackenzie Blackwood of the New Jersey Devils. But with the short schedule and so many goalie tandems being utilized in the NHL this season, the Vezina race is either going to be glaringly obvious or weirdly muddled.
Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)
Leader: Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings
Finalists: Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins; Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning
Kopitar has won the Selke twice and has been a finalist four times, but not since 2017-18. It's no coincidence that was the Kings' last appearance in the playoffs. If Los Angeles is competitive and relevant this season, Kopitar's name could be back in the mix. It should be: On top of his hot offensive start with 12 points in eight games, he's been a dominant defensive presence on multiple lines for the Kings.
Marchand has actually been the Bruins' best defensive player based on the analytics and the glamour stats -- two short-handed points! -- but Bergeron is one Selke win away from five trophies, passing Bob Gainey for the most all time. The number of ballots on which Bergeron appeared in our straw poll is a good indication his reign over the category -- nine straight nominations -- will continue.
Cirelli finished just outside the money for the Selke last season, in fourth place. He was prominently featured on some of the ballots we surveyed for this ranking. He's not the best on faceoffs, which might hurt his standing with some voters, but his defensive metrics have been solid (1.77 expected goals against per 60).
Among the other candidates are Marchand, St. Louis Blues center Ryan O'Reilly, Florida Panthers center Aleksander Barkov, Philadelphia Flyers forward Claude Giroux, Vegas Golden Knights winger Mark Stone, Calgary Flames forward Andrew Mangiapane and Montreal Canadiens center Phillip Danault, who got a hearty endorsement from MacKinnon as the toughest defender he faces.
Sean Couturier of the Flyers, last year's winner, has been limited to two games due to injury. One outside-the-box candidate: Buffalo Sabres star Jack Eichel, who has been dominant in the faceoff circle and has some sneaky great underlying metrics early in the season.
Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)
This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league's on-ice officials or by the National Hockey League Players' Association.
It's far too early to make a sweeping judgment of any player's respectability. But there's a good chance the winner of this award is the player who socially distances and wears his face mask correctly for 56 games. The bar is low, friends.
Jack Adams Award (best coach)
Note: The NHL Broadcasters' Association votes on this award.
Leader: Claude Julien, Montreal Canadiens
Finalists: Peter Laviolette, Washington Capitals; Joel Quenneville, Florida Panthers
The Jack Adams is usually an award that's all about the narrative, and Julien leading the Canadiens to the top of the Canadian Division is a heck of a narrative. Especially after the postseason Julien had last season, leaving the bubble due to chest pains. That's a great bit of coaching and a great story too.
Quenneville has won the Jack Adams just once, with the St. Louis Blues in 1999-2000. The Panthers' rocket trip to the top of the Central Division probably isn't going to last, but if they punch above their weight this season it'll be "Q" who gets the credit.
Laviolette seems like a natural Jack Adams candidate as a first-year coach in Washington. He already put his stamp on the team by navigating it through a difficult stretch when Alex Ovechkin and three other key players were out for the COVID-19 protocols.
One coach mentioned on multiple writers' ballots was Rod Brind'Amour of the Carolina Hurricanes, who has his team off to a hot start and is one of the most popular bench bosses in the league. Other candidates to watch: Dallas Stars coach Rick Bowness, Philadelphia Flyers coach Alain Vigneault, Colorado Avalanche coach Jared Bednar, Tampa Bay Lightning coach Jon Cooper, Toronto Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe and New Jersey Devils coach Lindy Ruff.
That does it for the first NHL Awards Watch of the season. Please remember that because this is a such a wild, mixed-up season, all of this could change by the end of next week.