Yaroslav Askarov is special. Any goaltender who can be comfortably projected to go in the top half of the first round anymore is. But 2020 NHL draft prospect Askarov stands out even among those few for so many reasons.
The Omsk, Russia native has been described by some as the best goalie prospect since Carey Price, who went fifth overall in 2005 to the Montreal Canadiens. In fact, he very well could be the highest goaltender selected since Price, as a frequent top-10 projected goalie and No. 7 on my most recent top 100 overall prospect ranking.
It's almost a lock that Askarov will be the highest selected Russian goaltender in NHL history and only the third Russian to be the first goalie off the board, beating out Andrei Vasilevskiy, who went 19th overall in 2012 to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The number of Russian netminders continues to grow in the NHL, with Vasilevskiy winning the most recent Vezina Trophy, Florida Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky becoming one of the highest-paid netminders in the league, Igor Shesterkin rising as the toast of Broadway with the New York Rangers, and New York Islanders fans salivating over the arrival of Ilya Sorokin. Russian goalies are in the midst of a surge -- and the very best of them might be this 17-year-old from Omsk.
One of the things that does make Askarov a rarer breed is that he's a right-catching goalie. That's not unheard of by any stretch but also certainly isn't common. Over the entire history of the NHL, only 96 of the 810 goaltenders who have appeared in NHL games are right-catch goalies, according to NHL.com's all-time record book. That falls in line with the world's left-hand-dominant population, at a little more than 10% of the population.
Very few of the elite goaltenders to play in the NHL, however, are right-catch. Only 18 have appeared in 300 or more NHL games, and just four right-catch goalies are in the Hockey Hall of Fame (Alec Connell, Tony Esposito, Grant Fuhr and Charlie Gardiner). Forty-three have been drafted and reached the NHL but only six were selected in the first round, and only four have been selected in the top 10. Rick DiPietro, who was the last such top-10 pick, is the only right-shot goaltender to be selected first overall (2000, Islanders).
If nothing else, the rarity makes the 6-foot-3, 176-pound Askarov even a little more intriguing for some scouts.
"It's not a big factor," one Western Conference scout said. "I see it as an advantage because it plays with shooters' heads and makes them question shot location. As long as he can catch the puck, it is not a big deal which side the glove is on. Askarov has no issues catching pucks."
But what matters more, aside from his skill, is the incredible success he has enjoyed over the course of his young career and the amount of hardware he has already picked up. Internationally, Askarov has been a revelation. He became Russia's under-18 national program starter at 16, playing in the 2018 Hlinka Gretzky Cup and helping the team win bronze despite a very strong field.
The following spring, he was the U18 team's primary starter at the World U18 Championship where he helped Russia earn silver, going all the way to overtime in the final against host Sweden. It doesn't get to that point without Askarov. His signature moment came in a semifinal during that tournament, in which he made 40 saves through regulation and overtime against Team USA. In the shootout, he did not give up a goal. All five American shooters and the goalie at the other end of the ice -- Spencer Knight -- went in the top 15 of last year's NHL draft, including Jack Hughes, Alex Turcotte, Trevor Zegras, Matt Boldy and Cole Caufield.
This year, he provided similar efforts at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, this time with his fellow 2002 birth-year players. Though his team was outshot 35-13 in the final by an absolutely loaded Canadian squad that featured multiple projected high picks for this year's draft, Askarov made 33 saves -- including a late-game flurry -- to preserve a 3-2 win for the Russians.
It hasn't all been international dominance, though. The one big event where Askarov performed below expectations just so happened to be the one everyone sees. He became just the fourth 17-year-old goalie to play for Russia at the World Juniors in December/January, but battled through tough outings against the Czech Republic in the prelims and Sweden in the semis. He was not called on to start in the final, and Russia lost 4-3 to Canada to earn silver. Another so-so performance at the U18 Five Nations tournament in February humanized Askarov a little more. He didn't have a chance to play in the final U18 World Championship this spring, as it was canceled amid the coronavirus pandemic.
In club play, Askarov played 18 games in the VHL, Russia's second-tier pro league, setting a record for a U18 goalie for games played in that league. He performed well, too, posting a .920 save percentage. Askarov also became the youngest goalie to earn a win in the KHL, when he made 23 saves on 25 shots in his one and only start for SKA St. Petersburg against HC Sochi.
According to a source, Askarov's KHL contract runs for two more seasons. Playing for one of the top clubs in that league always makes things a little trickier for a North America timeline, but an NHL team drafting a goalie would not, or at least should not, expect that player to be entering the league at 18 anyway. Ilya Samsonov, the most recent Russian goaltender selected in the first round (No. 22 in 2015), was in North America at 21 years old. He didn't break through to the NHL level until this season, where he has 22 starts for the Washington Capitals.
There have not been many -- or maybe any -- prospects quite like Askarov, who has all of the credentials on top of the size, athleticism, competitiveness and poise you're looking for in a long-term No. 1. Askarov is so in control of his crease, taking up so much net with little movement. He's especially hard to beat down low and is as explosive a goaltender as I've seen going post to post. Under pressure, he has a high battle level, competes for pucks and never gives up on a play. Teams are always going to hedge on goaltenders and rightfully so, but when one as seemingly rare as Askarov comes along, the reward far outweighs the risk.
So that's Askarov. What about the rest of the goaltending class? Well, there's little consensus in terms of who should go next, and the drop-off from Askarov is "significant," as one amateur scout put it. While Askarov looks close to a sure thing, the other tenders in the class have a lot to prove in the coming years to reach the NHL. That said, there are a number of goalies who are likely to start coming off the board in the late second round, and into Rounds 3 and 4. There is a lot less security and a lot more betting on upside. Here's how the rest of the group shakes out for me, but keep in mind that the gap between No. 2 and No. 8 on this list is razor thin.
2. Drew Commesso, U.S. National Under-18 Team (NTDP)
Age: 17 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 180 | Catch: L
Commesso has not been as hyped as some U.S. National Team Development Program goalies of the past, but his numbers were pretty remarkable this season. He posted a .920 save percentage and a 2.05 goals-against average.
What I particularly like about Commesso is his consistency. He had perhaps all of three starts this season that you could term as poor. He stopped at least 90% of the shots faced in 20 of his 28 appearances this season. Commesso moves cleanly in the crease with good positioning and sharp technique, and he gets post-to-post well. He keeps things very in control. Commesso is bound for Boston University next season, where he should start right away.
3. Nicolas Daws, Guelph Storm (OHL)
Age: 19 | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 199 | Catch: L
It is pretty rare for a third-year draft eligible to be among the top goaltenders for a given draft. It speaks to two things. The first is the relative shallow pool of goalies to pick from. But the second is Daws' marked year-over-year improvement. Part of that is due to an offseason of hard work getting in better shape, which was a big concern with Daws coming out of last season.
He grew into the best goalie in the OHL, earned a spot on Team Canada at the World Juniors and rose up the draft charts in 2019-20. Daws had so few rough starts this season, showing improved power and athleticism in the crease. He has a huge frame and cuts down angles well. The rebound control could certainly be better, but I think he's just really starting to discover his game.
4. Samuel Hlavaj, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 218 | Catch: L
Second-year eligible Hlavaj has made a much better case for himself to be selected in 2019-20. He spent last year adjusting to North American hockey with the Lincoln Stars and really seemed to take off this season with Sherbrooke, earning the QMJHL's defensive rookie of the year honors by posting a .915 save percentage in 39 games. Internationally, he has played behind very poor Slovakian teams and has gotten shelled with regularity, though you could say he's the only reason his teams managed to stay in games and keep them moderately competitive.
Hlavaj has a lot of the tools but still needs refining. He's big, he's quick and he showcases good-enough hockey sense. One wonders how much he can benefit from instruction from an NHL team's goaltending coach because he's still so raw. There's enough of a skill set there, though, that I think his potential is high.
5. Jan Bednar, HC Banik Sokolov (Czech 2)
Age: 17 | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 196 | Catch: L
Bednar played 37 games of professional hockey this season as a 17-year-old. That's a lot to ask of a young player, but Bednar has been so highly regarded within the Czech system that it was hardly a surprise.
He was named the Czech league's rookie of the year after only 10 appearances in 2018-19 when he was 16. The numbers were not very inspiring in 2019-20, but the workload he got at 17 is truly distinctive. Only five U18 goalies have appeared in more games than the 13 Bednar had in the Czech's top division this season, with Hall of Famer Dominik Hasek at the top of that list. And only two played more than the 24 Bednar appeared in with the Czech's second pro division in 2019-20.
Bednar brings a lot of raw talent to the table. He has had tastes of success at a young age, and I at least have a little concern he was handed too much too soon this season. He can stay home next year or possibly come to the CHL as an import. He won't turn 18 until late August. Teams have to be patient with goalies, but I think there's a lot of upside in Bednar, who has the size and athleticism to be a strong goalie in the future.
6. Dylan Garand, Kamloops Blazers (WHL)
Age: 17 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 173 | Catch: L
Teams are starting to give smaller goaltenders a little more time, and Garand is undersized by NHL standards. What stands out, however, is how good he was in the WHL this season. He appeared in 42 games, and among primary starters, he was second in save percentage at .921. Garand had a pretty sturdy team in front of him and plays sharp. He maximizes his size with good technical skill and some polish. There's still a lot of work ahead, but Garand's game intrigues me.
7. Joel Blomqvist, Karpat Jr. (Finland Jr.)
Age: 18 | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 182 | Catch: L
The top goalie in Finnish junior hockey this year, Blomqvist put together the best season by a U18 starter in Liiga Junior A since Juuse Saros in 2012-13. The then-17-year-old also got a chance to appear in two games at the top pro level this season. Internationally, he ran a little hot and cold, though.
Technically sound and confident between the pipes, Blomqvist doesn't cast an imposing frame, which might be why he's a little lower on boards.
8. Calle Clang, Rogle Jr. (Sweden Jr.)
Age: 18 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 194 | Catch: L
Clang performed well in Sweden's U20 league, appearing in more games than any other U18 netminder and posting a .913 save percentage, which was third among U18 players. He had some nice showings internationally, too, including at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup and U18 Five Nations while sharing the net with highly touted 2021 draft prospect Jesper Wallstedt.
Clang has been loaned out to play in Sweden's second-tier pro division next season, which should be a great challenge for him. He has solid mechanics and a good frame to be molded into a quality goalie prospect.