The NHL draft by its very nature is all about comparison. How one player compares to another ultimately decides a team's draft board. And in the 2020 NHL draft, the gap between the top two prospects and the rest of the class is fairly substantial. Alexis Lafreniere and Quinton Byfield project favorably to being All-Star-level players for the bulk of their careers.
But how do those two talents stack up -- based on my own evaluations -- against the top two picks from the previous four drafts, dating back to the Auston Matthews 2016 class? Strictly looking at where I thought those players were at the time of their draft, and not revising evaluations based on what they've done as NHLers, I stacked Lafreniere, Byfield and the top two prospects from 2016 to 2019. (It should be noted that I was off the draft beat for 2017 but still followed that season closely and consulted some outside sources to augment that gap.)
One thing to keep in mind is the margin between players is often very, very thin. We're talking about elite players who were elite prospects. That said, where do our two top prospects for 2020 fall in comparison?
1. Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Drafted No. 1 in 2016 from the Swiss National League
Matthews had one of the most unique draft seasons of any prospect maybe ever. An elite American player going overseas to play pro hockey is unheard of, and we might not see it again unless the stars align perfectly for someone else.
After a record-setting U18 season at the USA Hockey National Team Development Program, Matthews headed to Switzerland and torched the record books with the ZSC Lions in the NLA. No player 18 years old or younger in the league's history had as many as Matthews' 46 points or reached his absurd 1.28 points-per-game average. In fact, no U19 player in any of the top five European professional leagues has ever had a points-per-game average that high. Matthews then dominated at the World Juniors and men's World Championship, leading Team USA in scoring at both events.
A 6-foot-3, 200-plus-pound center with an incredible scoring ability, Matthews had elite puck-protection skills and an NHL readiness that would be awfully difficult for any player to replicate. And the production continued after the draft. He came right in with the Maple Leafs and won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year, and he has become one of the NHL's premier centers. In 282 career games, he is better than a point per contest, and his 47 goals in 2019-20 rank third in the NHL at the time of the suspension of play.
2. Patrik Laine, RW, Winnipeg Jets
Drafted No. 2 in 2016 from Liiga
There was an honest debate in 2016 about whether Laine should go first overall, even despite everything I just listed off about Matthews. And it was a completely fair argument.
Ultimately, Toronto made the right choice, but it's hard to overstate just how highly regarded Laine was during his draft year. He actually outscored Matthews at both the World Juniors and men's World Championship, helping Finland to gold in the former and silver in the latter. Laine also had a strong season with Tappara in Liiga with 33 points before absolutely going off in the playoffs, scoring 10 goals in 18 games. His 15 points in that postseason is a record for any U18 player and second overall by a player age 20 or younger.
When it's close, the advantage is almost always going to go to the center, but Laine's goal scoring was breathtaking and his elite shot released was considered better than Matthews' by many. In the NHL, he has hit a few small bumps in the road but is only 22 and already has three 30-plus-goal seasons, including one in which he hit 44. He is tied for seventh in the NHL in goal scoring since he entered the league.
3. Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey Devils
Drafted No. 1 in 2019 from the U.S. National Team Development Program
Hughes is the all-time leading scorer at the USA Hockey National Team Development Program, which has produced each of the past five Americans to go No. 1 overall. But unlike the previous three, Hughes was not a late birthdate playing outside of the program. He opted to stay and play a schedule mixed against college, junior and international opponents -- and he dominated them all. He also had the second-most productive U18 World Championship in the history of the event before becoming the youngest player to ever play for Team USA at the men's World Championship.
Hughes was the best skater in his draft class and showed his exceptional skills on a regular basis. His size and lack of strength were concerns, but he had simply controlled the game at every level he'd ever played. He became the first player to jump from the NTDP directly to the NHL, and even though he had his struggles in his rookie year with the Devils (21 points), the future remains bright.
4. Alexis Lafreniere, LW, Rimouski (QMJHL)
Ranked No. 1 in 2020
Before the QMJHL canceled the season amid the coronavirus pandemic, Lafreniere was having the kind of draft audition most can only dream of putting together. Only two players produced at a higher rate in their draft seasons in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League in the past 20 years: Sidney Crosby and Jonathan Drouin. Lafreniere also was the MVP for Team Canada at the World Junior Championship. And don't forget about the 102 points and CHL Player of the Year honors in 2018-19.
Lafreniere doesn't get the generational tag thrown around, maybe because we've all done it way too much, but he absolutely is tracking to be an elite winger in the game. He could step into the NHL tomorrow and handle himself pretty well. He has all of the tools, both physically and mentally, to be a major contributor. I think the gap between him and Hughes on this list is minuscule.
Lafreniere's 2020 scouting report: Lafreniere thinks the game at a high level, with elite anticipation and an understanding of what to do with the puck immediately after he gets it. He has a physical edge and initiates contact more than most top picks of recent years, separating players from the puck with regularity. We've seen Lafreniere's emotions get the better of him at times, but he has a competitive fire. He wants the puck at all times in all situations. And he has the skill and hands to make things happen when he has it. Few other players exude the level of confidence Lafreniere has shown over the past two seasons.
5. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres
Drafted No. 1 in 2018 from the SHL
Scouts were saying Dahlin was the best defenseman to enter the draft in at least a decade, and he had No. 1 hype from the time he was about 15 years old. His size, maturity, skating ability and hockey sense all shone brightly. In his draft season, Dahlin put up 20 points while appearing in 41 games with perennial Swedish Hockey League power Frolunda. No U18 player in the history of the SHL had produced that total, and there were very few other young blueliners playing top-four minutes in the top level of Swedish professional hockey. After a brilliant World Juniors, in which he helped Sweden to silver, Dahlin was even named to the 2018 Olympic team.
Dahlin's range and mobility were plus tools, while his hockey sense was among the elites at his position. He's still learning to defend at an NHL level, but he continues to prove exceptional in talent. He has topped 40 points in each of his first two seasons, and his 84 career points rank second all time among teenage defensemen in the NHL behind Phil Housley. Dahlin is on an incredible trajectory right now, just as he appeared to be at draft time.
6. Quinton Byfield, C, Sudbury (OHL)
Ranked No. 2 in 2020
Byfield's potential is very intriguing. Being his size, moving as fast as he does and playing as offensively dominant a game as he does from the center position gives some reason to the thought that he has a higher ceiling than Lafreniere. It doesn't hurt that Byfield is one of the youngest players in this draft class, especially among the top players. The concern at this point is Byfield's game-to-game consistency, though. He was really good throughout the season -- he was fifth in the Ontario Hockey League in points per game at 1.82 -- but faded toward the end. He missed out on the OHL playoffs and/or the U18 World Championship to reassert himself, too (both were cancelled).
That said, he's one of the most intriguing and exciting prospects I've covered. I would not be shocked to see him become one of the best players in this group because there is just so much projecting that you have to do with his game. Physically, he's the most gifted player on this list at the time of his draft, given his size, strength potential and skating. It's going to be all about development and continuing to gain strength and confidence. This kid could be an absolute superstar in the league.
Byfield's 2020 scouting report: Byfield's game was a little uneven from midseason on, and I wonder whether the draft season began to wear on him. At his best, he is a dominant force with elite-level speed, especially considering his size. He thinks the game extremely well, with good vision and a playmaker's touch. Byfield's defensive game needs maturation, but his instincts with the puck are very strong.
7. Kaapo Kakko, RW, New York Rangers
Drafted No. 2 in 2019 from Liiga
The Hughes-Kakko debate was a hot one, especially at the end of last season. Kakko had put together the best goal-scoring season by a U18 player in Liiga's history, scored a late, game-winning goal in the gold-medal game at the World Juniors and capped it all off by leading Finland in goals on the way to gold at the men's World Championship. But even though Kakko had just spent the year playing with and against professionals, the advantage went to the center, and Kakko ultimately went No. 2 to the Rangers, who were plenty happy to have him as their consolation prize. He had 10 goals for the team before the NHL's suspension of play.
The biggest separating factor was skating, as Hughes had a marked advantage in that department. Neither had an amazing rookie season, but they were both just 18 years old entering the year. There is a lot to look forward from both of them as they grow into cornerstone players for their respective franchises.
8. Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Carolina Hurricanes
Drafted No. 2 in 2018 from the OHL
Injuries and international duty kept Svechnikov from being among the leaders in the OHL during his draft season, but he still outscored his age peers with 40 goals in just 44 games and averaged 1.64 points per game. At that point, it was the eighth-best per-game scoring rate by a U18 player in the OHL over a 15-year span. All but one of the players ahead of him were top-five picks in the NHL draft. Svechnikov also got the nod to represent Russia at World Juniors and produced despite a limited role.
A power-scoring winger, he was the only serious challenger to Dahlin for No. 1 going into the draft. Over his first two NHL seasons, he has scored at least 20 goals in each, and he was in the midst of a breakout campaign before everything shut down this season. His two lacrosse-style goals garnered a lot of headlines, but Svechnikov had been making a positive impact on Carolina's offense all year long. He should be a long-term top-six scoring threat.
9. Nico Hischier, C, New Jersey Devils
Drafted No. 1 in 2017 from the QMJHL
The 2017 draft was a tricky one. Hischier didn't really become the leader for the No. 1 pick until the latter half of the season, and even then, it wasn't a sure thing. By No. 1-pick standards, his QMJHL production lagged behind others in their U18 seasons. However, Hischier turned a ton of heads at World Juniors with shift-to-shift dominance for a Swiss team whose opponents all knew whom they had to stop. Hischier never garnered consensus No. 1 status, and there was some doubt as to whether or not New Jersey would take him with the top pick as late as the week before the draft.
Ultimately, Hischier has been a solid contributor at both ends of the ice for the Devils. He might not end up going down as the best player from his draft class, but going into draft day, he at least appeared the best option at No. 1. He has 135 points in 209 games in the NHL.
10. Nolan Patrick, C, Philadelphia Flyers
Drafted No. 2 in 2017 from the WHL
Patrick had to deal with injuries during his draft season, which made his stock suffer. He was also one of the oldest players in his draft year, born just four days after the cutoff to be part of the previous class. He actually had a really spectacular season the year before his draft, in which he put up 102 points in the regular season and another 30 in the Western Hockey League playoffs on the way to the league title with the Brandon Wheat Kings. But that was not enough for him to hold off Hischier.
Patrick had the size-and-strength advantage, and there was a real belief he could become a power center in the league. He has had two modestly productive seasons for the Flyers but spent all of this season on the shelf dealing with a migraine disorder that hopefully does not further derail his career. Assuming he can get healthy, there's no reason to believe he can't become a reliable middle-six player for a long time.