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          Will Alexis Lafreniere be the 2020 NHL draft's top pick? Inside the race for No. 1

          Will Alexis Lafreniere go No. 1 in June? AP Photo/Petr David Josek
          • Chris PetersJan 8, 2020, 07:30 AM ET
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              Chris Peters is ESPN's NHL draft and prospects analyst. The Chicago native previously covered the NHL for CBSSports.com and founded the popular independent blog UnitedStatesofHockey.com where he covered the game at all levels since 2010.
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          With the 2020 World Junior Championship now in the rearview and many NHL teams already looking down and out of the Stanley Cup playoff hunt -- Detroit Red Wings fans, you might want to read this -- the hockey-prospect world is slowly turning its attention to the 2020 NHL draft. At the center of that discussion is an intriguing battle for the No. 1 pick among a handful of top prospects.

          You might have heard chatter about Alexis Lafreniere, who is projected by many to be that first selection in June. But is he the definite top pick? And who else is in the running? We answer all of your questions about the top of this draft class and a race for the top pick that is only accelerating six months out.

          Jump to:
          Lafreniere | Byfield | Others

          Is there a unanimous No. 1-ranked prospect right now?

          You'd think so, after Lafreniere earned MVP honors at the World Junior Championship. But "unanimous" is the key word here. Lafreniere is absolutely the favorite to go No. 1, but the truth is more complicated. There are still scouts and perhaps entire staffs out there that can't help but look at Quinton Byfield, a 6-foot-4, 214-pound center and at least pause to consider the option.

          Wasn't Lafreniere the guy a few months ago? Has the race closed a little?

          Over the course of the season, Byfield has definitely closed the gap in a number of ways. It's so surprising because Lafreniere has been exceptional, but Byfield has performed at an exceptionally high level in the OHL and has tantalizing upside. That's the key. He's young and has shown tremendous year-to-year progression, which makes you wonder more about how he projects out. Lafreniere is better right now without question, but is he going to be the best long-term? That is the question scouts are asking.

          OK, so we've heard a lot about Lafreniere for a while. What makes him so good?

          How much time do you have? He is as complete a winger as you could ask for. Lafreniere has good size, speed, physical strength, vision and hockey sense. He hits and he makes plays. There just aren't many things you can point out as clear weaknesses aside from the fact that he does not play center.

          As a late birthdate, we have two years -- plus the first half of this season -- to evaluate both his play and progression. Lafreniere had 80 points as a QMJHL rookie, hit 105 points in his second campaign and looks poised to obliterate that mark this turn around with 70 points in just 32 games for the Rimouski Oceanic in the QMJHL. That's an average of 2.19 points per game!

          He's a real playmaker, right?

          Uh, have you seen this?

          What about Byfield? What makes him stand out?

          As noted, Byfield is 10 months younger than Lafreniere, and because of the way hockey tracts are structured, he's essentially a full year behind in development. But Byfield is a freight train on skates with incredible hands -- especially in tight by the net. He is a sight to behold on a night-in, night-out basis, posting 57 points in 30 games this season as the engine that drives the OHL's Sudbury Wolves. While Byfield was at the World Juniors, the Wolves managed just one win in eight games.

          Speaking of those hands in close, you have to see this play from the 2019 Hlinka Gretzky Cup.

          What is the biggest separating factor between the two prospects?

          It sounds silly, but the biggest separating factor is the position they each play. When players are viewed this close in the eyes of the scouting community, there is a school of thought that you draft the center. That's especially true if you think that player is a long-term, No. 1 pivot. A center can, in theory, impact the game more than a wing. Even so, I believe there are plenty of scouting staffs out there that feel Lafreniere is far ahead of Byfield and still wouldn't think twice about going wing over center.

          Both skated for Team Canada at the World Juniors. How did each perform against their peers?

          Lafreniere was the MVP, while Byfield barely played by comparison, so there's that. Lafreniere, who missed two games amid an injury scare that wasn't as severe as feared, averaged nearly 16 minutes per game, was on the top power-play unit and finished the tournament with 10 points in five games. Byfield averaged 8:41 per game, had one assist and did not take a single shift in the gold-medal game.

          But wait, I thought you said they were close? Why the disparity in ice time and role?

          I can understand the confusion, but this is where the World Junior Championship differs from the NHL draft. The WJC is all about what a player can do right now, whereas the draft is about what a team believes a player can do over his career. And there's no question Lafreniere is the better player right now. Byfield's projection and upside are the intriguing factors, but long-term upside doesn't help you win gold (though it might help you win a Stanley Cup five or six years down the line).

          Additionally, you have to consider that Lafreniere was a returning player and a year older, and Canada had a lot of veterans to slot in ahead of Byfield. Lafreniere was out there doing things like this.

          In what areas do Lafreniere and Byfield still need to improve?

          Lafreniere has said he needs to work more on his defensive game, and while I agree, it has come a long way in the past year. He's getting there. For Byfield, a lot of players with his speed can get tunnel vision a bit. He won't be able to beat players wide all the time in the NHL, so I want to see more consistency in creative plays off the rush. He's so fast and so strong that it's hard for teams to stop that. Additionally, Byfield's two-way play still needs a little more work, but it's not a significant hole for him.

          To whom would you compare them?

          I'm always wary of comps, but since you asked so nicely, Lafreniere has some elements of both Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Huberdeau. He shares those really good stick skills with Kucherov, though the Lightning winger has a better shot. And the snarl in his game likens him to Kucherov a bit, too. Lafreniere's physical composition (6-foot-1, 192 pounds) reminds of Huberdeau, a comp I've also heard from outside sources.

          A big center who can physically dominate but also has tremendous skill, Byfield entered the season with Eric Lindros's name being thrown around a bit as a comp. Maybe "Diet Lindros" works because I'm not sure anyone could really compare to Lindros at the peak of his powers. In today's game, Byfield is similar to the center version of Blake Wheeler. Just consider his size, incredible skating and great stick skills to make plays. I think he processes the game in a similar way, too.

          So it sounds like it is a two-horse race for No. 1, right?

          It continues to trend that way, but we have a long way to go to June. There remains homework to be done on a lot of players. And while I don't see anyone in the next group of players supplanting either of those top two, it's not outside the realm of possibility.

          Who else is in play?

          I really like the way the top eight of this draft is shaping up, providing a lot of value in the upper portion of the lottery this year. Austrian sensation Marco Rossi has certainly made a great case for himself with absurd production with the Ottawa 67s this season. He currently leads the OHL with 69 points in just 29 games. The only two players who have produced at a higher rate in the OHL pre-draft in the past 15 years are Connor McDavid and Patrick Kane, who you might have heard panned out pretty well.

          Rossi is not alone, though. Swedish forwards Lucas Raymond and Alexander Holtz are exceptionally skilled young players who have seen time in the top pro level in Sweden and were key offensive players for the Swedish team at the World Juniors. And there's also a goaltender in the mix.

          Oh, the Russian goalie everyone is talking about?

          Yup. Yaroslav Askarov did not have his best showing at the World Juniors, but in just about every other instance of his young career, he has performed at a high level. The right-catching 17-year-old is playing well in Russia's second division and was the difference for Russia in a gold-medal run at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup this summer.

          Is Askarov in the mix for No. 1, too?

          The last goalie to go No. 1 was Marc-Andre Fleury in 2003, and there have been only three in total (Rick DiPietro in 2000, Michel Plasse in 1968). The Russian factor and the unpredictability of goaltenders in general make it hard to imagine Askarov joins that crew. But he's definitely in my top five for the class, and I think he is the best goalie prospect since Carey Price -- who, incidentally, was the last goalie drafted with a top-five pick. Temper expectations, though -- he might slip outside the top 10 if teams are nervous about how long it would take him to come over to North America.

          Did the World Juniors help any of these other players? Raymond looked pretty good!

          Man, Raymond is good for a highlight-reel play per game with the Sweden jersey on. He's such a competitor, too. I also think Holtz made a strong case for himself as a potential top-five pick, showing that he can make high-end plays and that he's more physically developed than a lot of his peers. Canada's only under-age defenseman, Jamie Drysdale, helped boost his stock with a solid showing, too, especially later in the tournament. But Lafreniere cast such a long shadow over his draft-eligible peers.

          OK, prediction time. Who goes No. 1 in June?

          If the draft were tomorrow, Lafreniere would be the pick for me. But there's still a lot of runway, and I think teams will want to watch Byfield extra closely the rest of the way. Sometimes we anoint players as the consensus No. 1 too soon. But based on the full body of work to this point and the fact he only keeps topping himself, I think Lafreniere is going wire to wire as No. 1 and will be the top pick come June.