With the Stanley Cup handed to the St. Louis Blues, we are officially in offseason mode.
There are hundreds of potential scenarios with trades and free agents that could shape the 2019-20 season, and every team will be looking for the deal that puts them over the top like the one St. Louis made for Conn Smythe Trophy winner Ryan O'Reilly last offseason. But there are some player and team decisions that will have a tremendous impact on the entire landscape of the offseason. Let's have a look at the 10 most notable.
Will Erik Karlsson choose to stay with the Sharks?
While San Jose's season did not end with the team's first Stanley Cup championship, Karlsson proved that he can keep the team's window to win open if he sticks around. Karlsson produced 45 points in 53 games and -- as per usual -- drove play to the tune of an outstanding 59.2 Corsi for percentage. When Karlsson was off the ice, the Sharks saw their Corsi drop by 6.6 percentage points and goals for percentage sink by 4.1 percentage points. Simply put: The Swedish star was every bit the difference-maker that the Sharks hoped for when they acquired him.
If Karlsson leaves in free agency, the Sharks will either have to become a major player for other top free agents or trade targets, or they will have to seriously consider another retooling-on-the-fly period.
A Karlsson bidding war would have a domino effect on the entire league. His services could turn any team into a playoff contender and a good team into a Cup favorite. However, if he re-signs with the Sharks, we will see the value of other available defenders skyrocket.
Will the Penguins actually trade Phil Kessel?
During the playoffs, The Athletic reported that Pittsburgh and Minnesota had come close to a deal to send Kessel back to the state in which he played college hockey, but the two-time Cup champ nixed the deal. A report during the Stanley Cup Final indicated that a Kessel deal was off the table, but we've learned to never say never, especially if the right deal comes along that is amenable to both Penguins GM Jim Rutherford and Kessel.
Pittsburgh might be finished with their scoring winger, but Kessel did not show signs of being washed up as a top-notch offensive player. He scored 82 points in 82 games, and 10 of his 27 goals were game-winners. For a team like the Arizona Coyotes that might not have the cache to lure top free agents Matt Duchene or Artemi Panarin, Kessel would give them the instant offensive boost that could get them back into the playoffs. Not so long ago, Kessel gave Pittsburgh the extra oomph to get back to the Cup Final, so he could certainly do the same for another contender.
On the Penguins' side of a Kessel deal, they might take a step back from being a Cup favorite, but a deal could give them the younger players to form a solid core around Evegni Malkin and Sidney Crosby down the stretch of their careers.
Who will pay Matt Duchene top dollar?
After Colorado struggled for relevancy during most of Duchene's time in Colorado, and Ottawa sunk to the bottom of the standings when they acquired the 2009 No. 3 overall pick, there might have been some question as to whether he could be a top center on a winning team. But Duchene's short tenure with Columbus answered those questions after a playoff series win over the juggernaut Tampa Bay Lightning and 10 points in 10 playoff games overall. He finished the regular season with 70 points in 73 games.
The question is: Which team will be willing to make Duchene one of the highest paid players in the NHL? Would a contending team like the Nashville Predators or New York Islanders make him the final piece of the puzzle? Or would a franchise looking to build like Philadelphia, the New York Rangers or Montreal look to Duchene as the player who can change their trajectory? Whichever team goes all-in will strain their salary cap, but also give themselves a better chance immediately.
Who will Artemi Panarin choose?
All 31 teams would love to have a scorer of Panarin's talent. In his four NHL seasons, the Russian winger has 151 points in 162 games, and he's coming off a career-high 87 points. He's also been incredibly effective at impacting his club's shot-attempt differential, with a plus-7.7 percent relative Corsi.
Panarin is the rare free agent who will fit into any team's top line and top power-play unit and be an instant upgrade.
But which team will be the most attractive to Panarin? Is market size a factor? Or whether the team has a No. 1 center a la the Dallas Stars or Los Angeles Kings? Is the team's odds to win the Cup next season important? Or perhaps familiarity with a certain coach from his days with the Blackhawks, who now runs the show for a club that plays where there are no state income taxes?
A trade for Jacob Trouba?
What would an NHL offseason be without rumors of Winnipeg's Jacob Trouba being traded? The 25-year-old blueliner set a career high in points last season with 50 in 82 games, making him an attractive option for teams in need of defense -- which is almost all of them. While 30 teams would be interested in adding Trouba, the list of teams that have enough in terms of assets -- and would be willing to send back a player that would help the Jets remain in contention -- is another story.
There are only a handful of such teams -- among them Philadelphia, Dallas, Edmonton and Calgary -- that could send a quality defenseman back the other way in the form of Shayne Gostisbehere, Esa Lindell, Darnell Nurse or TJ Brodie, and still upgrade their blue lines. If Winnipeg is more open to taking a forward or younger players in return, that would open the door for many more contenders.
Will the Minnesota Wild tear it all down?
Minnesota traded away three of its core players last season in Charlie Coyle, Mikhail Granlund and Nino Neiderreiter. GM Paul Fenton reportedly already tried to move Jason Zucker to Pittsburgh this offseason, and might keep trying until he's dealt away the 27-year-old speedster.
No one seems to be sure exactly whether the Wild are rebuilding or retooling in the twilight of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter's careers. If they want to burn it all to the ground and form a new core with youngsters Ryan Donato and Kevin Fiala, we might see Jared Spurgeon dealt. He's a dynamic defender who could play huge minutes on a contending team. Losers of the Karlsson sweepstakes (if there is one) would be thrilled to land Spurgeon as a consolation prize.
Of course, a teardown would also take the Wild largely out of contention in the Central next season, a tough pill to swallow for a loyal fan base that has been hoping for a long playoff run for many years.
Will Brayden Point or Mitch Marner sign offer sheets?
Offer sheets are more or less non-existent in the NHL, but this year's crop of restricted free agents (and the desperation of some teams to find an elite scorer) might just change that.
Without any cap massaging, neither the Tampa Bay Lightning nor the Toronto Maple Leafs have the salary-cap room to sign Point or Marner to the superstar-level deals that they are worth, and teams around the league that have the cap space -- like the Islanders, Devils, Flyers, Canucks, Jets and Panthers -- should be examining the opportunity. Granted, Point or Marner would have to actually be enticed to sign such a deal, but the money could certainly be there.
Last season Point produced 92 points and Marner had 94. Are those players worth giving up future draft picks for a team on the cusp? You bet they are. Will we actually see an offer sheet signed this summer? Stay tuned.
Is a Jonathan Quick trade too risky for teams in need of goaltending?
Last season was easily the worst of Quick's career. In 46 games, he notched an .888 save percentage on a struggling Kings team. It would make sense for Los Angeles to rebuild and move on (and create $5.8 million in cap space). While Roberto Luongo proved to us that any contract can be moved, it's tough to believe too many teams would be interested in a goalie with recent injury problems coming off a bad season.
On the other hand, Quick is a two-time Stanley Cup champ and Conn Smythe Trophy winner, and is only one year removed from a .921 save percentage season. That's earned him a lot of equity in the minds of front offices around the league, and a deal isn't entirely far-fetched if the Kings' asking price isn't too outlandish.
Would a contender like San Jose, Columbus, Winnipeg or Calgary take the risk with hopes of finding a winner in net? Quick's ultimate destination could impact the market for unrestricted free agents like Sergei Bobrovsky and Semyon Varlamov.
Who will be the No. 3 overall draft pick?
The New Jersey Devils will select either Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko. Whichever No. 1-worthy player doesn't get picked at the top will fall to the New York Rangers at No. 2. Both players have the capability to step into the limelight and impact their teams right away. If the Devils nail the pick, it might impact Taylor Hall's willingness to stay long term, and the other will certainly accelerate the Rangers' rebuild.
But starting with the Chicago Blackhawks at pick No. 3, things get really interesting, with little clarity on who they'll take (or even which position). Could they grab another diminutive goal-scoring wizard in Cole Caufield? What about a player who could step in to the No. 2 center role in the somewhat near future in Alex Turcotte? Or, will they bolster the blue line with a defenseman like Bowen Byram or Cam York?
How will teams start setting up for the 2021 expansion draft?
The expansion rules for 2021 will be the same as the ones that set up the Vegas Golden Knights for success in their inaugural campaign. Part of Vegas's success came from teams trading quality players (and picks) to the Golden Knights in order to protect other players from being selected.
Could we see surprising moves this offseason from teams who are trying to think ahead and cash in on players who would likely be picked by Seattle? Expect GMs around the league to handle things better this time around.