At the midpoint of the NHL season, teams are beginning to assess their chances of making the postseason and preparing to make decisions about whether to buy, sell or stand pat at the trade deadline.
While every team that is on the outside of the playoff race has some sort of shot at a comeback, certain clubs have a much better chance than others. Let's look at which teams have the best shot at unseating a current playoff team, and how they might make a push during the second half of the season.
Eastern Conference
New York Islanders (22-13-4)
Why they could surprise us: Goaltending
After years of talk about Robin Lehner's potential, it appears he is turning a corner. The former Senator and Sabre has an outstanding .938 even-strength save percentage in 19 games. With Lehner's success, quality play from veteran backup Thomas Greiss and vastly improved defense under coach Barry Trotz, the Islanders are allowing the second fewest even-strength goals per 60 minutes. Behind another strong start from Mathew Barzal, they are also ninth in even-strength scoring.
Chances they get into the playoff race: High
Sitting just one point out of a wild-card spot with games in hand on both the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens, the Isles have a strong chance of getting into the playoffs if they are able to add some secondary scoring at the trade deadline. The question, however, is whether Lehner's play is sustainable. His previous high for even-strength save percentage in a full season is .926.
New York Rangers (17-15-7)
Why they could surprise us: Young talent getting a chance
With the team in transition, up-and-coming players like defenseman Neal Pionk, 23, forward Pavel Buchnevich, 23, and rookie Filip Chytil, 19, are playing significant roles with the Rangers. Pionk leads all Rangers defensemen with 19 points while Buchnevich and Chytil are bottom-six forwards. If the youngsters get more opportunity as the season goes along, they could blossom and give New York a deeper attack than anticipated.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Low
Though there is some potential in the Rangers' youth, the Blueshirts' underlying numbers suggest they won't be in the race. They rank second to last in Corsi for percentage, 24th in even-strength scoring rate and 20th in even-strength goals against per 60 minutes. Unless the youngsters take a huge step forward and Henrik Lundqvist gets blazing hot in the second half, it's unlikely the Rangers will make the playoffs.
Florida Panthers (17-16-6)
Why they could surprise us: They have been unlucky
It's surprising to see a team in the top 10 in shot differential at 5-on-5 sitting nine points out of a wild-card spot, but things simply have not bounced the Cats' way this season. They rank fifth worst in even-strength shooting percentage and third worst in even-strength save percentage.
If Florida can get any semblance of steady goaltending from James Reimer and Roberto Luongo, and combine that with some better 5-on-5 shooting luck to bolster its third-ranked power-play unit, the Panthers could be dangerous down the stretch.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Medium high
The Panthers have the high-end talent to make things very interesting if they can get a save here and there. Stars Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov are pulling their weight, with each player producing more than a point per game, and Mike Hoffman's 18 goals have provided the scoring boost for which the Cats hoped when they acquired him in the offseason. A few breaks for the depth scorers could help the Panthers could get hot.
Carolina Hurricanes (17-17-5)
Why they could surprise us: Improving defense and the return of Jordan Staal
The Hurricanes have been searching for quality goaltending for a long time. It's not clear that they have found it in journeyman Curtis McElhinney, but he's certainly been an improvement over Scott Darling and Petr Mrazek. McElhinney has a .924 all-situations save percentage, and his performance has bumped Carolina's goals against per 60 minutes at even strength up to 10th place. They also allow the fourth fewest shots in the league. Staal's return from a concussion should solidify the defensive play. He's posted a positive relative Corsi percentage every season of his career.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Medium low
For years, the Hurricanes have dominated the shot counter, but not the scoreboard. This season is no different, as they rank No. 1 in Corsi for percentage and scoring chance percentage, but are third worst in the NHL in goals per 60. They do have a leg up on some of the competition: The Canes have more regulation wins than the Panthers and Rangers and only three fewer than the Sabres, who hold one of the wild-card positions. For the Canes to make the playoffs, though, they'll need to start finding the back of the net with a handful of all those shots.
New Jersey Devils (15-17-7)
Why they could surprise us: Mackenzie Blackwood could save the day
With Taylor Hall leading the way, the Devils have a strong primary scoring attack. They are 15th in goals per 60 minutes at even strength and 13th overall, but the team got an incredibly poor start from goaltenders Cory Schneider (.852 save percentage) and Keith Kinkaid (.901 save percentage). Top goalie prospect Blackwood, a second-round pick in 2015, has immediately shown why he was so highly regarded, stopping 190 of 201 shots in a seven-game stretch. He has the talent to quickly turn the Devils' fortunes around.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Medium high
Of course, it's hard to ask a 22-year-old goalie to lead the way. It's unlikely he'll be able to sustain a .945 save percentage, and New Jersey still lacks depth scoring past Hall, Nico Hischier and Kyle Palmieri. Only one other forward has more than 20 points this season. But it would make a great story if Blackwood did lead the Devils to the playoffs.
Detroit Red Wings (15-20-7)
Why they could surprise us: Dylan Larkin is playing like a superstar
After a down 2016-17, the 2014 first-round pick bounced back with a solid 63-point campaign last season. Now it appears he's taking the next step, as he's racked up 39 points in 42 games while playing a career-high 21:46 per game. He ranks in the top 30 in shots per 60 minutes, just behind Filip Forsberg and Taylor Hall.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Low
Aside from Larkin, there's very little of note on the Red Wings' roster. They have the fourth worst Corsi for percentage, 22nd-ranked goal scoring rate and 19th-ranked goals against rate. It's likelier that they will be selling off parts soon than fighting for position.
Philadelphia Flyers (15-20-5)
Why they could surprise us: The power play has to turn around soon
At some point, a team with this much talent has to break through on the power play. The Flyers' leader in power-play goals has just three, and stars Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek have combined for only two man-advantage tallies. They are likely to start producing more soon.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Very low
With the Flyers dead last in the Metropolitan Division, it would be stunning to see them get back in the race after being 14 points behind. In addition to their struggles on special teams, the Flyers are allowing 3.6 goals per game, and, despite some brief heroics from Carter Hart, don't seem to have a goaltending answer this season.
Ottawa Senators (15-21-5)
Why they could surprise us: They are scoring goals
Following the exits of Hoffman and Erik Karlsson, you wouldn't have expected Ottawa to rank in the top 10 in even-strength goals per 60 minutes -- but the performance of Mark Stone and Matt Duchene, combined with the rise of Thomas Chabot, has resulted in the Senators playing high-flying hockey. They have also received strong secondary scoring from 2018 fourth overall pick Brady Tkachuk, who has 10 goals and 10 assists in 30 games.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Almost zero
Though Ottawa's scorers have done their job, the Sens aren't providing defensive help for their goaltenders. They are allowing more shot attempts against than any other team in the NHL and the fourth most high-danger chances. Without an elite goaltender, and with Duchene possibly the next player traded out of Ottawa, we can expect the Senators to move into the next stage of their full rebuild.
Western Conference
Vancouver Canucks (20-20-4)
Why they could surprise us: The next wave is now
Just months after the Sedin Twins called it a career, a trio of young players has emerged as the core of a Vancouver team that isn't going away. Elias Pettersson -- the No. 5 pick from 2017 and a shoo-in for the Calder Trophy -- has joined Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser to combine for 53 goals. At 23, Horvat is leading the team in ice time, and Boeser has 28 points despite missing 13 games. When Boeser and Pettersson have been on the ice together, the Canucks have outscored opponents 18-6.
Chances they get into the playoff race: High
In the Pacific Division, teams don't have to be great to be competitive. The Canucks may rank 26th in Corsi for percentage and 21st in even-strength scoring rate, but the three young stars give Vancouver a chance to compete for a wild-card spot that currently belongs to the struggling Anaheim Ducks. The Canucks have three more regulation wins than the Ducks.
Minnesota Wild (19-17-3)
Why they could surprise us: Special teams are special
Bruce Boudreau's squad took a huge hit when defenseman Matt Dumba suffered an injury that will keep him out long-term, but the Wild could hang around based on their power play and penalty kill. They are 10th in man-advantage scoring and third on the penalty kill. A resurgent Zach Parise has six power-play goals this season, matching his total from 2016-17, and 17 goals overall. Veteran center Eric Fehr has helped Minnesota improve its shorthanded play, while goalie Devan Dubnyk has a terrific .922 shorthanded save percentage.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Medium high
The lack of quality competition in the West certainly opens the door for a team with as much talent as the Wild, but it won't be easy for them to sustain the loss of Dumba over a long period of time. They currently sit 18th in even-strength goals for percentage. It's also probable that Dubnyk's shorthanded-save percentage will dip as the season goes along. But Minnesota could end up being a buyer at the deadline if the Wild continue to be a fringe team. It appears they'd rather take shots at the playoffs than rebuild as long as Parise and Ryan Suter are still in uniform.
Edmonton Oilers (19-18-3)
Why they could surprise us: Connor McDavid
There have been few performances over the last two decades that rival what McDavid has done to start this season. He's produced an incredible 61 points in just 39 games while playing over 22 minutes per game. When McDavid has been on the ice at even strength, the Oilers have outscored opponents 38-27.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Medium low
When McDavid has not been on the ice at even strength, the Oilers have been outscored 34-51. Even a Hart Trophy-caliber performance from the young superstar might not be enough for the Oilers to sniff the playoffs. With an extreme shortage in secondary scoring, Edmonton has only four double-digit goal scorers and ranks 26th in goal-scoring rate at even strength.
Chicago Blackhawks (15-21-7)
Why they could surprise us: The top two lines
The Blackhawks no longer have a top-to-bottom lineup with quality role players netting important goals. Instead, they are as top-heavy as any team in the league. Undersized winger Alex DeBrincat continues to prove he's the real deal, as he and Jonathan Toews have dominated the puck to the tune of a 54.4 Corsi for percentage when playing together, and Patrick Kane has 50 points in 41 games. Chicago's top talents give the Blackhawks a chance against all but the deepest teams.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Low
With goaltender Corey Crawford still out, there doesn't seem to be much hope for a postseason berth. Cam Ward has a .888 save percentage, and the Blackhawks are just 18th in even-strength scoring despite quality top-end talent. They desperately need to start rebuilding in earnest.
St. Louis Blues (16-18-4)
Why they could surprise us: The stars haven't gotten rolling yet
Normally Vladimir Tarasenko is pushing for 40 goals, but in a season in which top scorers across the league are putting up crazy numbers, he has only 11 tallies and 11 assists in 37 games. After a 70-point season, Brayden Schenn has only 22 in 33 games, and Jaden Schwartz had only three goals in 24 games before suffering an injury. There's too much talent on the Blues' roster to continue to rank 26th in goals per game.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Medium low
Not only has production from top players been an issue, but St. Louis's woeful goaltending has the Blues fourth worst in the NHL in even-strength save percentage. But the West is giving out opportunities to make the playoffs this season. St. Louis has the same goal differential as wild-card holder Anaheim, and the Blues have won six of their last 10. Any improvement in goaltending could put them right into the mix.
Arizona Coyotes (17-21-2)
Why they could surprise us: They have to find offense eventually
Brad Richardson is the leading goal scorer on a team that has Derek Stepan, Alex Galchenyuk, Clayton Keller and Michael Grabner. How is that possible? Arizona might be able to take baby steps if its top players begin to produce at all.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Almost zero
Even with the team boasting the NHL's best penalty kill, the Coyotes' forwards would have to take massive leaps to make up for poor goaltending (20th in even-strength save percentage). Another rebuilding year in the desert.
Los Angeles Kings (16-23-3)
Why they could surprise us: Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty
The Kings' two superstars have been at the forefront of the team for a decade. Neither is performing up to his usual level this season, as Kopitar has only nine goals in 40 games and Doughty has a 48.8 Corsi for percentage -- a low number for him. If both got outrageously hot in the second half, the Kings could at least become a challenge for top teams to play against.
Chances they get into the playoff race: Almost zero
The Kings rank fourth in even-strength save percentage and sit dead last in the West. That conveys how few offensive weapons they have. Without a massive overhaul, Los Angeles might not be in contention for a long time.