We are less than a month through the NHL schedule, and most teams are just approaching double-digit games played. But based on a number of factors, including circumstances, ice time, shot metrics and a touch of common sense, we can already spot trends of players on the rise and others whose slow starts are likely to become down years.
Let's have a look at one player from each Eastern Conference team who is on his way to more success and another who could be in for an extended slump.
Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins
Trending up: Right wing David Pastrnak
It's becoming more and more clear that Pastrnak is not a passenger alongside Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand; rather, the 22-year-old winger is a driving force behind the Bruins' top-line dominance. The 2014 first-round pick has been on ice for 13 even-strength goals this season, the most in the NHL. That's no fluke, as the B's are outshooting opponents 79-64 with him on the ice at 5-on-5.
Trending down: Right wing David Backes
In seven games before an injury-related scratch, Backes played just 13:27 per game, by far the lowest of his career. He produced zero points and only eight shots on goal. The veteran forward was still a decent contributor last season, but those days might be over.
Buffalo Sabres
Trending up: Left wing Jeff Skinner
After years of trade rumors, the Hurricanes finally moved on from Skinner following a 24-goal season in 2017-18. In nine games, he has already posted five goals, four of which came playing alongside Jack Eichel. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Skinner get back to the 30-goal level if he sticks with Jack.
Trending down: Left wing Vladimir Sobotka
Part of the Ryan O'Reilly trade, Sobotka has offered virtually nothing to Buffalo thus far. At one time, he was a solid role player, but in his first six games, opponents outshot the Sabres 47-29 at even strength with Sobotka on the ice. Buffalo might ultimately lean toward younger players instead of the 31-year-old winger for depth jobs.
Detroit Red Wings
Trending up: Center Dylan Larkin
Larkin suffered from some poor puck luck last season, with just a 6.9 percent shooting percentage. In his first nine games, the 2015 15th overall selection has notched four goals on 28 shots. The trend could continue. The website Natural Stat Trick credits Detroit with an 82-57 advantage in scoring chances with Larkin on the ice this season.
Trending down: Left wing Thomas Vanek
We have pronounced the end for Vanek many times over the past few years, and he's always bounced back, but this might be it. Soon to be 35, the Austrian winger has been annihilated at even strength. Opponents are outshooting the Wings 36-73, and the Wings have given up seven goals against to just one goal for with him on the ice.
Florida Panthers
Trending up: Right wing Evgenii Dadonov
The best player many hockey fans don't know, Dadonov made an impressive return to the NHL last season, with 65 points, and has picked up where he left off by playing 20:10 per game and adding seven points in his first six contests.
Trending down: Right wing Troy Brouwer
The Cats took a flier on the journeyman winger, but so far he hasn't shown any signs of being worth the one-year deal. Brouwer has averaged under 10 minutes per game and has a 42.0 Corsi for percentage.
Montreal Canadiens
Trending up: Left wing Tomas Tatar
Tatar offered very little to the Golden Knights after they acquired him at the deadline last season. He has changed that trend quickly, scoring eight points in seven games. Montreal has crushed opponents with him on ice, with 74 shots for the Habs and just 36 against.
Trending down: Center Andrew Shaw
When the Canadiens acquired Shaw in 2016-17, it appeared that he might be the strong depth center they had been missing, but in five games, he has averaged less than 13 minutes per game, put only 10 shots on goal and won just one of 13 faceoffs.
Ottawa Senators
Trending up: Defenseman Thomas Chabot
With Erik Karlsson dealt to San Jose, the second-year blueliner is playing big minutes (21:43 per game) and getting opportunities playing behind the top forward lines. His production has followed in Karlsson's footsteps so far, with nine points in seven games.
Trending down: Center Matt Duchene
The Sens' top center has eight points in seven games, but all the other numbers surrounding him are not promising. He has managed a subpar 44.1 Corsi for percentage, and Natural Stat Trick credits opponents with 64 scoring chances against and only 48 for the Senators with Duchene on ice. Plus, 2.0 shots per game is well below his career 2.5 rate.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Trending up: Center Brayden Point
Point is off to a strong follow-up to his 66-point 2017-18 season, notching five goals in his first seven games. Driving the bus on the first line with Steven Stamkos, Point has helped the Lightning control the game with a 57-46 shot advantage with him on the ice.
Trending down: Left wing Alex Killorn
Coming off a career-high 47 points, Killorn has found himself playing around one minute less than last year and spending his time on a less dangerous third line than Tampa has boasted in the past. The Lightning have yet to score a 5-on-5 goal with him on ice. That's the bad news. The good news is having a player as talented as Killorn on the third line says a lot about Tampa Bay's talent.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Trending up: Defenseman Morgan Rielly
While Auston Matthews has been the star of the show in Toronto to start the season, the Maple Leafs have mauled the opposition with Rielly on the ice. Not only has he produced 14 points, but also the Leafs have outshot opponents 104-85 and outscored them 12-7 with their top defenseman on the ice. At age 24, and with an outstanding group on offense in front of him, Rielly appears to be coming into his own as a top-notch defender.
Trending down: Center Nazem Kadri
With back-to-back 32-goal seasons in his rearview mirror, it appeared that Kadri had found his fit in Toronto, but the addition of John Tavares has pushed him down the depth chart. The 28-year-old center is currently playing a career-low 15:58 per game and has managed just 1.8 shots per game.
Metropolitan Division
Carolina Hurricanes
Trending up: Center Sebastian Aho
The young Finnish forward is quickly rising to star status, with 14 points in his first nine games. Aho is at the center of a team that appears to finally be taking a step forward. The Canes have outscored the opposition 8-2 with him on the ice and controlled the ice with a 57.3 Corsi for percentage.
Trending down: Goalie Petr Mrazek
While Carolina has offensive firepower and a clear puck-possession advantage, it is still short on goaltending. The former Red Wing has just an .888 save percentage in five starts.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Trending up: Defenseman Ryan Murray
The 2012 No. 2 overall pick has gone through tough times in the first five seasons of his career, but there are signs that he could take a step forward. Murray is playing a career-high 22:59 per game, and the Jackets have an outstanding 57.3 Corsi for percentage with him on ice, plus 34 "high-danger" shots compared to just 14 against. The impending return of Seth Jones might alter his usage, but the early results are promising.
Trending down: Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky
When Bob is on fire, there are few goalies who can match him. But the bumps in the road have been particularly bumpy throughout his career. Five games is hardly a sample to judge Bobrovsky's season, but having a game in which he allowed eight goals and an .876 save percentage overall to start the season is less than ideal.
New Jersey Devils
Trending up: Right wing Kyle Palmieri
Since joining the Devils, Palmieri has become an impressively consistent player, producing 30, 26 and 24 goals in three seasons in New Jersey. While his blazing-hot start is certainly driven by his 31.8 percent shooting, the former Duck is also playing more minutes than ever (18:12 per game) and has spent 90 percent of his minutes with superstar Taylor Hall.
Trending down: Center Pavel Zacha
The 2015 sixth overall pick has shown almost no signs of offensive ability in his two seasons, and nothing appears to have changed in his six games this season. Zacha has zero points and only eight shots on goal.
New York Islanders
Trending up: Goalie Robin Lehner
After three up-and-down seasons in Buffalo, Lehner is looking to take hold as the Islanders' No. 1 goalie and live up to the potential the Senators saw when they drafted him 46th overall in 2009. So far, so good, as the 27-year-old has a .936 even-strength save percentage.
Trending down: Left wing Anders Lee
It was clear the moment Tavares signed in Toronto that Lee would not be repeating his 40-goal 2017-18 season. He has scored on 9.1 percent of shots this season, compared to 19.1 percent in 2017-18. Lee will have fewer chances to score if the Islanders' struggles to control the puck continue. They have been outshot 35-58 with him on ice at even strength through the first seven games.
New York Rangers
Trending up: Center Mika Zibanejad
The Blueshirts are not in great shape in most areas of their roster, but the 25-year-old center appears to be a piece to build around. Following a 27-goal season, Zibanejad has five points in eight games, despite a low 8.6 shooting percentage. His line is the only one for the Rangers to dominate the shot counter, putting 78 shots on goal and allowing only 60 against.
Trending down: Left wing Jimmy Vesey
Much fanfare came along with Vesey's signing in New York, but he hasn't produced at a high rate in his first two seasons with the Rangers. Although he is seeing more ice time, the former Harvard standout has just three points in eight games. Vesey also boasts the third-worst Corsi for percentage on the club, at 44.7 percent.
Philadelphia Flyers
Trending up: Right wing Travis Konecny
Five points in nine games and a mere 14:10 ice time per game isn't much to get excited about, but the underlying numbers hint at better things to come soon for Konecny. Natural Stat Trick's scoring chance formula has the young forward with a massive scoring chance advantage of 51-29 when on ice and a 58-39 shot edge. If his line keeps getting that many opportunities, more points should follow.
Trending down: Center Nolan Patrick
Despite scoring only 13 goals in his rookie campaign, you can keep your hands off the panic button on Patrick's career ... at least for now. But the fact that he has been given only an average of 13:26 of ice time per game should be a concern if the expectation was that he take a big leap forward in Year 2.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Trending up: Defenseman Kris Letang
Since the second half of last season, Letang has been back in elite defenseman form. The Pens have dominated the puck with him on ice, to the tune of a 56.2 Corsi for percentage and equally promising scoring chance and "high-danger" chance numbers. Letang is playing his highest average ice time since 2015-16, and he has added eight points in six games.
Trending down: Right wing Patric Hornqvist
No longer a Crosby linemate, the 32-year-old winger is finding his home on the third line, where it will be very difficult for him to replicate his past production. Hornqvist's ice time has dipped by nearly two minutes, and he has just one point.
Washington Capitals
Trending up: Left wing Alex Ovechkin
You'd think it would be impossible to trend upward from where Ovechkin was at the end of last season -- on top of the world -- but he has made it crystal clear that a Stanley Cup has not slowed his determination. Ovi has opened the season with eight goals in eight games and more than four shots on goal per game.
Trending down: Left wing Andre Burakovsky
The 23-year-old winger is teetering between whatever prospect status is still remaining and not living up to the expectations he set with a 17-goal age-20 season. He has dipped below 12 minutes in average ice time, and he has zero points.