Congratulations to the Buffalo Sabres. You finally won the draft lottery! What are you going to do next? Well, you're going to draft Rasmus Dahlin.
The Sabres' awful record is going to do them some good, as Dahlin offers the team an additional pillar of support to alleviate the crushing weight Jack Eichel has been forced to carry. Dahlin does not instantly change things for the Sabres, but he helps the franchise take a very important step forward as it attempts to emerge from the quagmire that has tested fans' patience.
While Dahlin is the top prize, this draft is going to be a strong one. It's particularly exciting for teams that have a top-nine pick.
We often talk about drafts in terms of tiers. Dahlin has one all to himself, but then there's a strong second tier led by Andrei Svechnikov, with Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk occupying space not far behind him. One could make a case for Oliver Wahlstrom to be right with that group due to his elite scoring ability. Then there's a tier of top-level defensemen who can move the puck extremely well and have top-four potential. That includes Adam Boqvist, Evan Bouchard, Noah Dobson and Quinn Hughes.
After those names go off the board, things get a little tougher to predict. A scout recently expressed to me how close everything gets from No. 10 all the way down to No. 50. There's a little more consensus for the middle third of the first round, but things really do open up. It's hard enough to predict what teams will do, but with the depth that exists between the first and second rounds this year, there are just so many different ways it could all go.
We'll make sure to revisit the mock as the draft gets closer, but here's a look at what the first round could look like following the draft lottery. Picks 24-31 are derived from expected playoff success with consideration to regular-season point totals and division winners. Let's have some fun.
1. Buffalo Sabres: Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frolunda (Sweden)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 181
41 GP | 7 G | 13 A
The Sabres finally get lucky and will have the chance to land the franchise cornerstone defenseman they've been missing. Adding Dahlin fills the position of greatest need while also adding a key piece to a new young core around which the Sabres can more reliably rebuild. Eichel alone could not save the Sabres, but having Dahlin there is going to help Buffalo a great deal. The draft will be the easy part, though, as Jason Botterill has a lot more work to do on this franchise.
2. Carolina Hurricanes: Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie (OHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 188
44 GP | 40 G | 32 A
Svechnikov could be an immediate contributor for a team that has some exciting young forwards in Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and top prospect Martin Necas. On top of his special goal-scoring ability, Svechnikov plays the game with power and speed. He'll add a new dynamic to Carolina's forward group. Though the Canes need more strength down the middle, they'll be happy to add a winger who scored 40 goals in 44 OHL games this season. For a while, Svechnikov looked more even with the other top wings in this draft, but I think his performance down the stretch and in the playoffs provided separation.
3. Montreal Canadiens: Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston University (Hockey East)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 196
40 GP | 8 G | 23 A
The bunching of top wingers makes this range very challenging to predict. That said, I have a hard time seeing the Habs passing on Tkachuk in this spot. He's big and mean, and that doesn't even begin to cover the many things he does well. Tkachuk's NCAA production has given some pause about his overall projection, but he still has many fans in the scouting community. He has a solid power game and is very good down low, which is where you'll see a lot of his offense generated. His vision and distribution skills are also of the high-end variety for a player of his size. Tkachuk just seems to fit the profile of the kind of player Montreal would want to bring into the fold.
4. Ottawa Senators: Filip Zadina, RW, Halifax (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 195
57 GP | 44 G | 38 A
The Sens have the option of letting the Colorado Avalanche use this pick as part of the Matt Duchene trade, but there's no way they should pass up an opportunity to take one of the remaining top players in this spot -- especially if that player is Zadina. He had a fantastic season with Halifax and should remain in the discussion as a top-three pick the rest of the way. On top of his skills, he plays with great energy over the course of the entire game. Zadina uses his size and hand skills to create space for offense. He'd have a chance to make the team right away.
5. Arizona Coyotes: Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, USA U18 (NTDP)
Age: 17 | Shoot: R | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 205
54 GP | 40 G | 43 A
The Coyotes could definitely consider a defenseman here, as they're a little shallower on the blue line within their prospect pool, but I don't think they would pass on taking an elite scorer like Wahlstrom. His stock has only continued to rise this season while playing alongside 2019 top prospect Jack Hughes, but Wahlstrom can create offense on his own, and he may have the best shot in the draft. Wahlstrom also has a big frame and skates well. The only knock at this point is consistency in his competitiveness, but when he's on his game, he's an absolute scoring machine.
6. Detroit Red Wings: Evan Bouchard, D, London (OHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: R | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 193
67 GP | 25 G | 62 A
This should start the post-Dahlin run on defensemen. The Wings could go in a lot of different directions here, but I think they'll lean toward Bouchard because of his size and offensive abilities. Additionally, Bouchard is a right-shot defenseman, which fills a bit of an organizational need. Ryan Ellis is the only defenseman in the last 20 years who had more than Bouchard's 87 points in an OHL season.
7. Vancouver Canucks: Adam Boqvist, D, Brynas Jr. (Sweden-Jr.)
Age: 17 | Shoot: R | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 168
25 GP | 14 G | 10 A
Just like the Red Wings, the Canucks will have many options among the defensemen. It all comes down to preference. I could see either Hughes or Dobson going here, too, but Boqvist is the right-shot defenseman with the most offensive upside left on the board. He can run things from the back end but will require a fair amount of patience, as I think he's at least a year or two away from being a contributor.
8. Chicago Blackhawks: Quinn Hughes, D, Michigan (Big Ten)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 170
37 GP | 5 G | 24 A
To me, he's the most unique defenseman in this draft for his ability to lead the rush and create chances for everyone else on the ice. Hughes should intrigue Chicago if he drops this far. Despite being a smaller defenseman, Hughes is one of the best skaters in the draft and would help the Blackhawks' D corps better support its talented forwards by getting the puck up ice more effectively. Hughes' 0.78 points per game puts him in the top 10 among U19 defensemen in college hockey over the last 30 years.
9. New York Rangers: Noah Dobson, D, Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: R | Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 180
67 GP | 17 G | 52 A
The Rangers picked up a lot of defensemen in their trades near the deadline, but Dobson would jump to the head of the pack on the prospect depth chart. One of the best defenders in the draft class, Dobson still averaged over a point per game in the QMJHL last season. You pretty much always know what you're going to get out of him.
10. Edmonton Oilers: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Assat (Finland)
Age: 17 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 188
57 GP | 10 G | 19 A
The buzz has been growing around Kotkaniemi and will only get louder after he helped Finland win gold at the U18 World Championship. A physical force within his own age group, Kotkaniemi is hard to take off the puck due to his big frame and smart puck skills. He plays a mature game, which showed during his performance in the Finnish pro ranks this season. Kotkaniemi led all U18 players in the league and produced at a rate comparable to Jesse Puljujarvi and Teravainen at the same age.
11. New York Islanders: Joseph Veleno, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 193
64 GP | 22 G | 57 A
Having back-to-back picks is certainly a luxury, but this is the portion of the draft where things start to even out. There's still a lot of quality out there, though, and Veleno has worked his way back into the upper tier of the draft. He's a good two-way center who had 79 points in 64 QMJHL games this season. His skill doesn't get you out of your seat, but he has enough to be a solid middle-six center long-term. Veleno was granted exceptional status into the QMJHL draft in 2015, joining a few former No. 1 NHL draft picks with such distinction.
12. New York Islanders (via CGY): Ty Smith, D, Spokane (WHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 175
69 GP | 14 G | 59 A
This might be a good spot for the Isles to consider trading down just to collect more assets, but I think they'd be better off just drafting Smith. He put up big numbers in the WHL this season with 73 points in 69 games. His defensive zone play needs work, but Smith's skill with the puck on his stick is enticing. It wasn't that long ago that Smith was being mentioned in the same breath as the group of defensemen listed ahead of him here.
13. Dallas Stars: Barrett Hayton, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
Age: 17 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 190
63 GP | 21 G | 39 A
Hayton doesn't have any one standout skill or trait; he just does everything very well. A smart player who has been one of the key pieces to the Soo Greyhounds, the top team in the CHL for much of the season, Hayton can fit into any kind of role Dallas would need him to. The Stars might not need a ton of help up front for a while, but his versatility would make him an attractive add in this slot.
14. Philadelphia Flyers (via STL): Joel Farabee, LW, USA U18 (NTDP)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 164
54 GP | 27 G | 37 A
Farabee is a do-everything winger who mixes a solid skill set with a strong on-ice work ethic. He was often in roles this year where he was doing a lot of the dirty work for his linemates, but he has an impressive ability to finish as well. He's the kind of player you win with.
15. Florida Panthers: Bode Wilde, D, USA U18 (NTDP)
Age: 18 | Shoot: R | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 195
53 GP | 11 G | 25 A
A big, athletic defenseman who skates extremely well and has solid puck skills, Wilde might be a high-risk, high-reward pick. His physical tools are all there for him to be a potential star defenseman, but there are some concerns about Wilde's overall hockey sense and ability to make plays under pressure. A defenseman putting up over 40 points in a season with the National Team Development Program doesn't happen terribly often, though.
16. Colorado Avalanche: Grigori Denisenko, LW, Yaroslavl 2 (Russia-Jr.)
Age: 17 | Shoot: R | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 176
31 GP | 9 G | 13 A
The Avs are starting to really build things up. They're not going to get immediate help from anyone in this slot, so the best bang for their buck at this point likely comes in the form of Denisenko. A shifty forward with excellent puck skills and an ability to make plays at high speeds would be a nice addition to a team that's playing at a high pace.
17. New Jersey Devils: Isac Lundestrom, C, Lulea (Sweden)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 185
42 GP | 6 G | 9 A
The Devils want to find players who fit into their team's identity, and it's hard to find a better fit than Lundestrom. He possesses good speed, can make plays with pace and is committed to a strong two-way game. He's shown steady improvement over the course of the year and could be a very strong middle-six center in the not-too-distant future.
18. Columbus Blue Jackets: Vitali Kravtsov, RW, Chelyabinsk (Russia)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 170
35 GP | 4 G | 3 A
A big winger with crafty skills and a quick shot, Kravtsov has been rocketing up draft charts after putting up 11 points in 16 KHL playoff games with Chelyabinsk. He had only seven points in 35 games in the regular season, but the tools are evident. I'm starting to wonder if Kravtsov will even be available at this slot, but I'm sure the Blue Jackets wouldn't complain if he is.
19. Philadelphia Flyers: Rasmus Sandin, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 184
51 GP | 12 G | 33 A
A solid two-way defenseman who plays bigger than his frame, Sandin has been a rising star throughout the draft season. He's on a loaded team in Sault Ste. Marie, but the Swedish defenseman makes the Greyhounds better. He'd make the Flyers' well-stocked prospect pipeline better, too.
20. Los Angeles Kings: Rasmus Kupari, C, Karpat (Finland)
Age: 18 | Shoot: R | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 183
39 GP | 6 G | 8 A
If the Kings want to get faster, Kupari could help. He's quick in just about everything he does, from his skating to his puck skills. Kupari makes a lot of plays, and I'm not totally convinced he'd drop this far on draft day. He had a bit of an up-and-down year, but he can do a lot of damage with the puck on his stick.
21. Anaheim Ducks: Jared McIsaac, D, Halifax (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 196
65 GP | 9 G | 38 A
Another solid two-way defenseman with a good frame and a lot of confidence, McIsaac is a safe pick in this range for the Ducks. There isn't a lot of depth in Anaheim's defensive prospect pool, so McIsaac would help there as the best player available in this range.
22. Minnesota Wild: Mattias Samuelsson, D, USA U18 (NTDP)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 217
50 GP | 9 G | 19 A
Samuelsson is a bruising defenseman who thinks about the game at a high level. The son of former NHL defenseman Kjell Samuelsson has more offensive talent than dad, highlighted by a heavy shot. Samuelsson won't fill the score sheet like some of the other defensemen in this draft, but he looks like a surefire NHLer who won't need terribly long to make the jump.
23. Toronto Maple Leafs: Serron Noel, RW, Oshawa (OHL)
Age: 17 | Shoot: R | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 205
62 GP | 28 G | 25 A
The Maple Leafs would have to consider adding a defenseman here, but I don't see anyone else on the board who would make it worth passing up Noel if he's available. The big-bodied forward has room to fill out his massive 6-5, 205-pound frame to add more power to his game. Already a solid skater, Noel has a nose for the net and so much potential.
24. San Jose Sharks: K'Andre Miller, D, USA U18 (NTDP)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 206
50 GP | 7 G | 17 A
If the Sharks are looking to boost their defensive pipeline, Miller would be a great add in this range. He's been playing defense for only three years, but based on what he has shown already, his upside is immense. He's a physical force and skates very well north and south. He's not afraid to jump into plays, and you get to see those forward skills come back to him when he's in the offensive zone. He still needs time to develop, but this would be a late-first home run for the Sharks if he's there.
25. Ottawa Senators (via PIT): Martin Kaut, RW, Pardubice (Czech)
Age: 18 | Shoot: R | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 176
38 GP | 9 G | 7 A
The Sens would have a lot of good options in this range, but one of the more interesting players would be Kaut. The second-leading scorer among U20 players in the Czech league this year, Kaut was a standout for the Czech Republic at the World Juniors and looks poised to make the senior team for the World Championship. He knows his way around the offensive zone and looks like he might have a short timeline to reach the next level. An added bonus: If the Sens do land Zadina at No. 4, Kaut was the other wing on his line at the World Juniors.
26. New York Rangers (via BOS): Akil Thomas, C, Niagara (OHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: R | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 171
68 GP | 22 G | 59 A
It's harder to find a sure thing in this range, but Thomas is a really good player. A quick skater who can slot in at center or wing, Thomas plays hard every shift and brings a lot of energy. He put up 81 points in 68 games, showing solid playmaking ability. He should receive high marks for his versatility and strong character.
27. St. Louis Blues (via WPG): Dominik Bokk, RW, Vaxjo Jr. (Sweden-Jr.)
Age: 18 | Shoot: R | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 180
35 GP | 14 G | 27 A
The Blues have done such a great job building up their prospect system over the last few years with a stronger focus on forwards. They've drafted seven forwards with their nine picks in the first two rounds over the last four drafts. Despite being deep up front, it would be hard to pass on the super-skilled Bokk here. The German forward showed flashes of high-end abilities in Sweden's junior league. St. Louis won't need him for a while, so his upside is worth going after if he's still on the board.
28. Washington Capitals: Alexander Alexeyev, D, Red Deer (WHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 200
45 GP | 7 G | 30 A
The Capitals have a lot of needs in their system, and they could take a lot of players with this pick who would instantly become one of their top prospects. Alexeyev brings a lot of value as a big defenseman with solid two-way skills. He moves the puck well enough but also plays sound defensively. One concern at this point is overall foot speed, but he has a strong hockey sense.
29. Detroit Red Wings (via VGS): Ryan McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 203
68 GP | 26 G | 44 A
One of the more explosive skaters in this draft, McLeod has a great stride and can get up the ice quickly. There is some moderate concern about his overall puck skills and whether or not he'd be able to translate offensively in the NHL. With his size and physical attributes, he'd be an especially nice pickup in this range.
30. New York Rangers (via TBL): Ty Dellandrea, C, Flint (OHL)
Age: 17 | Shoot: R | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 185
67 GP | 27 G | 32 A
Having three picks in the first round should make the Rangers more comfortable to take a shot. Dellandrea is one of those players who is hovering between first- and second-round projections. He played for a pretty bad team this season but was still able to take over shifts and occasionally games. His higher-end puck skills were on full display for Canada at the U18 World Championship, showing what he is capable of when playing with other top players.
31. Chicago Blackhawks (via NSH): Jacob Olofsson, C, Timra (Sweden-2)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 192
43 GP | 10 G | 11 A
A solid two-way forward, Olofsson helped Timra win a promotion to Sweden's top pro division this year. Olofsson posted 21 points, which was best among all U18 players in the Allsvenskan this year. Additionally, his U18 production was higher than notable forwards Filip Forsberg and Elias Pettersson at the same age. Olofsson's skating is a bit of a concern, which is why he could slide out of the first round, but his U18 national team coach Torgny Bendelin just raves about his hockey sense.