There are six undefeated teams left in the FBS: the Ohio State Buckeyes, Indiana Hoosiers, Texas A&M Aggies... and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, BYU Cougars and Navy Midshipmen. Three are not surprising, but the other three? That's the beauty of college football in the time of NIL and the transfer portal. For me, it's a reminder that winning isn't a popularity contest. So I'm here to put some respect on the undervalued undefeated teams, because, regardless of opponent, these programs are finishing the job.
If you win in the SEC or the Big Ten, people notice. It's basically how the playoff model was built, on the idea that strength of schedule and conference prestige matters most. But there is a difference between playing a tough schedule and being a tough team. The Yellow Jackets, Cougars and Midshipmen are proving that each week.
BYU: Earning belief one week at a time
Let's start with BYU. The Cougars are 8-0, 6-2 ATS and 2-0 outright as underdogs. Led by quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin, this offense can win in different ways. Two weeks ago, it was the run game that really hummed in a win over the Utah Utes. This past Saturday, it was the passing game that led the way against the Iowa State Cyclones.
The line movement is what has been most intriguing. Two weeks ago, BYU was -1800 to miss the playoffs. Last week, the Cougars were -700, and after Week 9 they're -450. That's the market learning to trust them in real time. Odds don't shift like that unless the performance demands it, and right now, BYU's performance demands it.
Georgia Tech: From long shot to frontrunner
Georgia Tech is my favorite team that no one, outside of sportsbooks, seems to be praising. The Yellow Jackets are 8-0 straight up, 6-2 against the spread, and also have two outright wins as underdogs. Haynes King has 1,480 passing yards, 651 rushing yards and has accounted for 19 total touchdowns. He has the second-most rushing scores in the FBS (12) -- not just for a quarterback -- sitting one behind Washington Huskies running back Jonah Coleman (13).
Georgia Tech is now the betting favorite to win the ACC at +175, ahead of the Miami Hurricanes (+275) and Louisville Cardinals (+500). It's basically the market's version of an apology, a recognition that the books finally had to move the Yellow Jackets from overachiever to legit contender.
Georgia Tech is 5-0 in conference play for the first time in program history and 8-0 for the first time in 1966. The Yellow Jackets beat the Clemson Tigers and survived overtime on the road against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons earlier in the season and have kept opposing offenses in check over the past three weeks.
They've rewarded bettors as underdogs, and now the market has caught up. Georgia Tech is +105 to make the playoff, a major shift from "feel-good story" to "yeah, this might actually be real." There's also a legit chance that GT is undefeated entering its season finale against the Georgia Bulldogs.
Navy: Winning, but not convincing
Navy, the class of the American Conference, is 7-0 and averages more than 37 points per game. Quarterback Blake Horvath has 19 total scores, tied for the second-most rushing scores in the FBS (12) with King and Ole Miss Rebels running back Kewan Lacy. Navy is playing with its typical discipline.
The difference between Navy and Georgia Tech/BYU is that the Midshipmen have been favorites every week, which says the market already expected consistency from them. However, they're just 2-5 against the spread. So while they're winning, they haven't exactly been blowing the doors off expectations. That's where the disconnect is.
The roadblock for the Midshipmen? The Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a couple of weeks. For now, Navy has earned respect on the field, but not with sportsbooks or with bettors losing money backing them in the spread market.
What's the betting angle?
When a team is undefeated but still a long shot to make the playoffs, it's normally because the books aren't sure it's built to stay that way. When a team is undefeated and the line starts to move in its favor week after week, it means the market is catching up to what the scoreboard already knew.
Georgia Tech has earned belief, BYU is earning it week by week, while Navy hasn't yet, but that's okay. Winning, even if the world doesn't believe in it yet, still matters. People will say these teams haven't really played anyone, but that's kind of the point.
These teams have played everyone that has been put in front of them and have handled business. These teams have done what great teams do... finish the job.
In the upcoming games, follow the market as you normally would and don't ask: "Who's the best undefeated team?" But instead: "Who's still mispriced?"
Georgia Tech and BYU are still slightly undervalued relative to each team's on-field efficiency and market momentum. Navy is overvalued because the record flatters a team that has failed to cover games. Basically, Navy is winning, but Georgia Tech and BYU are paying.