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The top player matchups in each second-round series -- and who has the edge

Blues leading scorer Vladimir Tarasenko is going to be seeing a lot of Roman Josi in Round 2. Who has the edge when these two are on the ice? Joe Puetz/NHLI via Getty Images

In the first round, Ryan Kesler of the Anaheim Ducks closely shadowed Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan and kept them both scoreless at even strength en route to a four-game sweep of the Calgary Flames.

In the second round, he'll have the greater challenge of trying to shut down the NHL's regular-season scoring leader, Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers.

The highly anticipated Kesler-McDavid showdown is just one of several critical player matchups that will determine the outcome of the second round. Roman Josi and Nashville's blue line will have to shut down Vladimir Tarasenko of the St. Louis Blues the same way they neutralized Patrick Kane of the Chicago Blackhawks in the opening round. Matt Niskanen and the Washington blue line will have to find a way to shut down Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins without letting Evgeni Malkin's and Phil Kessel's scoring loose. Ryan McDonagh and the New York Rangers can advance only if they manage to contain Ottawa's all-world captain, Erik Karlsson.

Let's take a closer look at each head-to-head matchup and determine which team has the edge in each case:


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Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers vs. Ryan Kesler, Anaheim Ducks

The most anticipated individual matchup of the second round pits the winner of the Art Ross trophy as the league's top scorer, Connor McDavid, against one of the three finalists for the Selke Trophy as the best defensive forward, Ryan Kesler. It's fair to suggest that the outcome of this showdown will determine which team advances to the Western Conference finals.

At first glance, it's easy to predict that McDavid will have the upper hand, given his incredible regular-season performance. However, Marc-Edouard Vlasic somewhat neutralized McDavid in the first round, as he was held to four points in six games against the San Jose Sharks.

Even that modest total of four points was enough for McDavid to be in on 33.3 percent of Edmonton's scoring, which is considerable. In the regular season, his 100 points on Edmonton's 243 goals worked out to an amazing 41.2 percent.

If Edmonton goalie Cam Talbot hadn't delivered such an inspired performance, including shutouts in Games 2 and 3 and restricting the Sharks to a single goal in the decisive Game 6, then Vlasic's defensive performance might very well have been enough to defeat the Oilers.

Kesler, who prevented Calgary's Gaudreau and Monahan from scoring a single point at even strength in their first-round series, could be just the player to shut McDavid down. He is joined on arguably the league's best shutdown line by ironman Andrew Cogliano and the highly underrated Jakob Silfverberg.

Edmonton's best opportunity to score could be on the man advantage, on which their power-play percentage of 22.9 percent ranked fifth in the league in the regular season. Anaheim's penalty kill ranked fourth, at 84.7 percent, but Calgary scored a league-high six power-play goals in 16 opportunities in four games in Round 1, which suggests that there's a potential vulnerability for McDavid and the Oilers to exploit.

Edge: Edmonton


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Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Matt Niskanen, Washington Capitals

With the status of the Capitals' top shutdown defenseman, Karl Alzner, uncertain after he missed the last four games of their first-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs because of an upper-body injury, the mighty task of shutting Crosby down could fall to someone else.

In the first round, Toronto's top line of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Zach Hyman faced off primarily with Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov for the final four games. The Caps pair were effective enough to help defeat the Maple Leafs, but can they slow the Penguins?

Niskanen and Orlov are primarily offensive-minded defensemen, but they have been effective in defensive roles as well. In terms of the shot-based metrics, Orlov and Niskanen led the Capitals in the regular season with a shot-based plus/minus of plus-222 and plus-198, respectively.

Even if they succeed, shutting Crosby down is not enough to beat the Penguins. As the Columbus Blue Jackets learned in the first round, focusing on Crosby is no victory if it allows Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel to cut loose. They led the first-round scoring race with 11 and 8 points, respectively. Stopping the Penguins will require a complete team effort. Based on this matchup, the advantage goes to the Penguins.

Edge: Pittsburgh


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Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues vs. Roman Josi, Nashville Predators

The Predators' blue line operates primarily as a four-man unit, without much reliance on the third pairing. In their first-round series against Chicago, their top four defensemen all averaged at least 25 minutes per game, while Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber averaged 11:55 and 11:25 minutes per game, respectively.

In the first round, Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis were tasked with shutting down Chicago's top line of Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov, primarily in the defensive zone. At even strength, Josi lined up for 14 faceoffs in the offensive zone and 46 in the defensive zone, for a zone start percentage of 23.3 percent.

Given that Chicago's scoring was almost completely silenced, the Blues could be in for a tough series. Their scoring is largely consolidated on one line of Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz and Paul Stastny.

In the regular season, Tarasenko led the Blues in most offensive categories -- by a wide margin. His 39 goals were 16 more than Patrik Berlgund's 23, his 75 points were 20 more than Schwartz's 55, and his 286 shots were 98 more than defenseman Colton Parayko's 188.

Tarasenko is the key to the team's scoring. If Josi & Co. can shut down Tarasenko as effectively as they silenced Kane and Panarin, this series could be over as quickly as the last.

Edge: Nashville


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Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators vs. Ryan McDonagh, New York Rangers

Ever since Karlsson's second season in 2010-11, the Senators have been one team when he is on the ice and another when he is not.

At five-on-five, Ottawa has outscored its opponents 417-408 with Karlsson on the ice but has been outscored 490-441 without him, as compiled by Corsica Hockey. That's a swing of 58 goals. In terms of all shot attempts, the Senators are up 9,963-8,917 when the captain's on the ice, and they have been out-attempted 12,817-12,112 when he isn't, which is a swing of 1,751 shot attempts. All of that success is despite Karlsson's already being the focus of all the top opponents -- it isn't like this is his first great season, after all -- and playing alongside blue-line partners no better than Filip Kuba and Marc Methot.

For the past six seasons, the key defensive player for the Rangers has been Ryan McDonagh. He takes on all the top opponents, in both zones, in any manpower situation and at any score. The past four seasons, his most frequent opponent has been John Tavares of the New York Islanders (164:10 against), followed by Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom of the Capitals, at 153:52 and 132:44, respectively, according to the data compiled by Hockey Analysis.

In the first round, McDonagh was focused on Montreal's top line of Alexander Radulov, Max Pacioretty and Phillip Danault, and he allowed only a single goal at even strength.

Under normal circumstances, it's hard to name any player who can neutralize the tremendous impact Karlsson has on his team. But given the hairline fractures in Karlsson's heel, it's possible that McDonagh can keep up with the speedy Swede. It's possible, but it isn't likely.

Edge: Ottawa