Unlike in baseball -- in which signing discussions lead to pre-draft leaks -- hockey teams hold their cards close until the last second prior to the start of the draft.
To wit, one team's head scout (a team not in the first few picks) responded to a question as to whom they'd be targeting in the first round by saying: "Auston Matthews -- hoping he falls to us."
This mock is my best estimation of how I think the first round will play out, with caveats added as necessary.
Also, let's take one moment to acknowledge that this is the last year in which we have a 30-team mock draft. Starting next season, we're going 31 deep!
1. Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews, C, Zurich (NLA)
Toronto has done its due diligence and discussed Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi in considerations for the top pick, but ultimately, everything I've heard points to the Leafs taking Matthews. Never say never, but I'd say the Arizona native has an 80-85 percent chance of being the pick right now.
2. Winnipeg Jets: Patrik Laine, LW, Tampere (Liiga)
Although there is a camp within the industry that prefers Puljujarvi to his fellow Finn, it is a small one, and I don't believe Winnipeg's management is in that camp. Barring something strange occurring, we can pretty much lock this one in.
3. Columbus Blue Jackets: Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Karpat (Liiga)
There have been plenty of rumors about the Blue Jackets' considering trading down, but if they stick here, I fully expect Puljujarvi to be the selection. Matthews and Laine are sure bets to be in the NHL next season, but for Puljujarvi, I'd say he would be about 50-50 to be on the Blue Jackets' NHL roster for the full season.
4. Edmonton Oilers: Matthew Tkachuk, LW, London (OHL)
It was a tenuous task to project this pick for the Oilers a month or so ago. I believe they were considering Tkachuk, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Logan Brown among others, but Tkachuk's great finish to the season created a tilt in his direction. Keith's son would be unlikely to make the Oilers out of camp next fall, but does have a small shot of doing so. Of course, this is another pick that could be dealt.
5. Vancouver Canucks: Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
Some scouts I've talked to outside the Canucks organization believe Brown is a possibility here, but most indicators point to Vancouver taking Dubois. The NHL-ready options pretty much end at this point, so the Quebec native will be a very smart pick as a versatile forward Canucks fans can hope will make the team in the relative near future.
6. Calgary Flames: Logan Brown, C, Windsor (OHL)
Calgary is believed to be considering either Brown or Clayton Keller at this slot. Brown's stellar second half and under-18 tournament really moved him up the boards of a number of NHL teams, and if Calgary doesn't take him here, somebody is going to try to trade up to get him. Calgary has also been vocal about trying to get a taller player in this year's draft, so I expect the Flames will lean toward the Raleigh, North Carolina, native. If Dubois somehow slips to No. 6, I think Calgary would prefer him.
7. Arizona Coyotes: Alexander Nylander, RW, Mississauga (OHL)
Arizona has been very public about trying to beef up its young defense group, so I'm not 100 percent sold that this is the pick. The Coyotes could trade down, and they've gotten some quality offers to do so. If they stick at No. 7, though, I think they will have a shot at a highly skilled forward such as Nylander or Keller, and I can't see them passing that up, even with their organizational need for young defensemen.
8. Buffalo Sabres: Olli Juolevi, D, London (OHL)
The rumor the past few weeks has been Juolevi to the Sabres, but it has been hard to pin down. GM Tim Murray doesn't project his first-round picks all too well, but historically, he doesn't go too far off the beaten path, so Juolevi and Nylander (if Arizona selects Juolevi) are the two likeliest scenarios here. Juolevi would join Finnish countryman Rasmus Ristolainen, 21, as the core of a solid young defensive group for many years to come.
9. Montreal Canadiens: Michael McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
I originally had Montreal on Mikhail Sergachev, but his lackluster under-18 tournament left a sour taste. As it stands now, it is likely between McLeod or Keller for the Habs at this slot. However, if Nylander somehow slides to No. 9, I think the slide stops at Montreal.
10. Colorado Avalanche: Mikhail Sergachev, D, Windsor (OHL)
Colorado has historically been one of the toughest organizations to glean information from, for a variety of reasons. That said, if the board plays out like this, I believe it's between Keller and Sergachev for the Avs, and they'll lean to the Russian to help their barren organizational defense.
11. New Jersey Devils: Clayton Keller, C, USA U18 (USHL)
I have heard that the Devils have been high on Keller. I'm not 100 percent certain he'd be the pick, but as GM of the Penguins, Ray Shero targeted highly skilled, smart players in the first round, even if it didn't always work out. That describes Illinois native Keller in a nutshell.
12. Ottawa Senators: Tyson Jost, C, Penticton (BCHL)
While I'm sure some Ottawa fans would prefer a defense selection here, the Senators have some pretty good defensemen in their system, and after Colin White and Francis Perron, there is a pretty steep drop-off in their organizational forward group. One could argue that Jost would move ahead of White to become the system's top prospect.
13. Carolina Hurricanes: Jakob Chychrun, D, Sarnia (OHL)
Carolina has a great group of young defensemen on its roster, but lacks a high-end defense prospect, and Chychrun would become the Hurricanes' top one if he's the pick here. The Boca Raton, Florida, native is a two-way defender who generates a ton of shots on goal and plays tough minutes in all situations.
14. Boston Bruins: Jake Bean, D, Calgary (WHL)
I am not slotting him here for the Bean to Beantown jokes -- though I have several of those upon request. After the first draft of the Don Sweeney regime, which was somewhat unpredictable, I admit to not having a great read on what this organization is targeting, but according to the industry, the Calgary native is the best player available here, and he would become the top defense prospect in the Bruins' system.
15. Minnesota Wild: Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston University (Hockey East)
Since 2012 (Matt Dumba), the Wild haven't drafted a top-end defense prospect, and McAvoy would become the top defender in their system. I do think if Jost gets this far, the Wild would love to add such a skilled center to their system.
16. Detroit Red Wings: Kieffer Bellows, LW, USA U18 (USHL)
I've heard some chatter on Logan Stanley being the guy for Detroit, but I'm skeptical of that rumor. It would be an out-of-character selection for the Red Wings, given his mediocre offensive upside. Minnesota product Bellows makes a lot more sense as a big-time goal scorer with a large frame. Also, Detroit can afford to be patient with him as he heads to college.
17. Nashville Predators: Dante Fabbro, D, Penticton (BCHL)
Despite Nashville's being known as a defensemen factory, the Predators used their top pick on a blueliner only twice in the past six drafts, and one, Seth Jones, was recently dealt. Fabbro checks a lot of things the Predators look for in their organization, particularly his elite hockey sense, and he would replenish a position they usually emphasize.
18. Philadelphia Flyers: Luke Kunin, C, Wisconsin (Big Ten)
Although the Flyers have historically looked to the CHL for draft picks, they are rumored to be high on Kunin, who played last season at the University of Wisconsin. Alternatively, I could see Julien Gauthier being their selection at this slot.
19. New York Islanders: Riley Tufte, LW, Fargo (USHL)
Tufte made a lot of noise as the season went on, with a great high school season at Blaine High (Minnesota), and he was impressive in the USHL. The Islanders have several quality young forwards on the way, so timeline-wise, getting a guy such as Tufte into the mix will let him play three years in college plus an AHL campaign or two before he makes it to the big club.
20. Arizona Coyotes (from Rangers): Alex DeBrincat, RW, Erie (OHL)
Whether Arizona sticks with its top few picks remains to be seen, but if the Coyotes stay, I expect the new management staff will be aggressive in going after high-upside talent. DeBrincat fits that mold, even if he is a small player by NHL standards. This is based on my suspicion of how the Coyotes' draft board lines up. I wouldn't necessarily expect them to walk away after Friday with two highly skilled forwards, given how badly their system needs defense, but we can't account for trades in a mock draft.
21. Carolina Hurricanes (from Kings): Max Jones, LW, London (OHL)
Jones didn't put up gaudy point totals, but he was a big part of London's Memorial Cup team. Carolina doesn't really have a Max Jones-type player, a guy who can beat you with speed, skill or power, in the system, so the Michigan native would be a nice add.
22. Winnipeg Jets (from Blackhawks): Brett Howden, C, Moose Jaw (WHL)
Winnipeg's slot at No. 22 right through the end of the first round is the most interesting range of the draft for me because you have an industry consensus of 10 or so guys in that range who don't appear to have many fans in the organizations in these slots. This could result in several trade-down scenarios, as some other organizations try to get guys such as Logan Stanley and Markus Niemelainen. Of the remaining top prospects, Howden brings a combination of skill, speed and hockey sense that Winnipeg should find desirable, on top of his having a great on-ice work ethic.
23. Florida Panthers: Vitaly Abramov, RW, Gatineau (QMJHL)
Florida did a quick 180 entering the draft by firing its head scout and naming a new general manager. Getting a feel for exactly how the Panthers will draft is not easy, but there has been some foreshadowing. Abramov is a dynamic forward who was one of the very best players in the QMJHL this season, though he is a small player.
24. Anaheim Ducks: Pascal Laberge, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL)
Anaheim tends to like highly skilled and athletic players, which is what Laberge delivers. A former top QMJHL pick, the Quebec native is a superb talent and athlete who put up solid counting stats in the CHL this season. Anaheim's system is a little bare when it comes to high-upside forwards.
25. Dallas Stars: Rasmus Asplund, C, Farjestad (SHL)
Drafts run by Stars GM Jim Nill tend to look for players with either superb hockey sense or explosive skating. Asplund is more of the former, as he is often praised by Swedish sources as a highly intelligent, two-way center with significant scoring upside. Dallas has some similar players in its pipeline, including Jason Dickinson and Radek Faksa, but Asplund provides a little more skill.
26. Washington Capitals: Jordan Kyrou, RW, Sarnia (OHL)
Washington has a tough pick to project here. I could see German Rubtsov as a potential pick, or a trade down. I like the Toronto native here because even though he didn't put up huge numbers, he consistently impresses with his tool kit, and the current Capitals staff loves to roll the dice on players such as him.
27. Tampa Bay Lightning: German Rubtsov, C, Russia U18 (MHL)
The meldonium doping scandal likely changed Rubtsov from a guy going in the teens to one going in the 20s. This is a logical projection, given that Tampa loves to roll the dice on guys who "slide" due to various risk variables, notwithstanding the number of Russians the Lightning have taken in recent years.
28. St. Louis Blues: Kale Clague, D, Brandon (WHL)
I've had an inkling of Clague going to the Blues the past few weeks, but this late in the first round is anyone's guess, based on how the board plays out. St. Louis usually targets high-upside players with a lot of hockey IQ, and that's why I see a fit with Clague.
29. Boston Bruins (from Sharks): Logan Stanley, D, Windsor (OHL)
I'm not a huge Stanley fan, but I believe someone is going to take him in the first round. Whether it's Boston at No. 14 or 29, Anaheim at No. 24 or 30, Winnipeg at No. 22 or Detroit at No. 16, there have been various rumors of his eventual landing spot. Some team is going to bet on a behemoth such as the 6-foot-7 Kitchener, Ontario, native, who can skate and handle the puck competently.
30. Anaheim Ducks (from Penguins via Maple Leafs): Boris Katchouk, LW, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
Katchouk was solid for most of the season in the OHL, and he made a lot of noise during the OHL playoffs. He's a skilled player and a fierce competitor. Katchouk would become one of the very best forwards in the Ducks' system.