How will a crucial stretch of March basketball swing the 2020 NBA draft?
In a class that has little consensus throughout the lottery, huge moments on the biggest stages could help any prospect break through into another tier of leaguewide draft boards. But unfortunately for NBA teams and fans of the worst squads, not all of the top players will be participating deep into the month.
So what are the key moments and questions to watch? We highlight what you need to follow, whether you're just catching up on the draft now or you've been paying close attention all season -- including Anthony Edwards' final games, the importance of conference and NCAA tournaments, European prospects and more.
MORE: Top 100 NBA draft rankings
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The final games of Anthony Edwards' college career
Barring a miraculous five-game, five-day win streak at the SEC tournament in Nashville, Tennessee, Edwards' short college career at Georgia will come to a close in the next two weeks. Regular-season games against Florida and at LSU -- plus any postseason games -- will provide good final tests for NBA teams to evaluate the potential No. 1 pick.
Edwards has had a wildly inconsistent freshman campaign, with some extreme highs but also real lows, leading many to ponder the legitimacy of his candidacy as the top prospect in a flat draft without much consensus. His final few games will provide final opportunities to make his case for the worst teams in the NBA. After that, fans won't see him in a competitive basketball environment until NBA summer league kicks off in July.
March 4: Georgia-Florida (7 p.m., ESPNU)
March 7: LSU-Georgia (2 p.m., ESPN2)
March 11: SEC tournament, Nashville (SEC Network)
Can Isaac Okoro solidify his candidacy as a top-five pick?
With top prospects Edwards, LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman, Deni Avdija, Tyrese Haliburton and possibly Onyeka Okongwu (on the bubble with USC) not participating in the NCAA tournament, Okoro likely will be the highest-rated prospect dancing from among the ESPN 100.
Auburn is slated as a No. 4 seed in the latest ESPN bracketology projections, meaning Okoro will be favored to make the tournament's second weekend at least. Averaging only 13 points per game -- the lowest of any college player currently projected in the lottery -- and shooting 28% from beyond the arc, Okoro is relying heavily on his physical tools, defense and ability to contribute to winning basketball. That case would be strengthened with a strong March.
Are NBA scouts better off spending the second half of March in Europe?
Only five of the top 19 prospects in the ESPN 100 are likely to be playing in the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament starting March 19: Okoro (No. 5), Kentucky's Tyrese Maxey (No. 7), Arizona's Nico Mannion (No. 9), Dayton's Obi Toppin (No. 10) and Arizona's Josh Green (No. 17), making it slim pickings for NBA executives or fans hoping to do their NBA draft lottery prospect scouting in the Big Dance. As noted, Okongwu (No. 6) and his USC squad are on the bubble.
With so many of the draft's best prospects injured, on losing teams or playing internationally, this is shaping up as one of the least interesting tourneys in recent history in terms of sheer future NBA star power. Depending on how things play out, it wouldn't be surprising to see NBA executives spending the end of March and beginning of April overseas scouting the likes of Deni Avdija, Killian Hayes, Theo Maledon, Leandro Bolmaro and others.
The point guard overload
Going into the season, we knew that one of the biggest strengths of this draft class was the number of point guards projected at the top of the class, something that has become even more pronounced.
Nine of the 14 players in our lottery projections are either full-time point guards or project to play the position part time in the pros. That extends beyond the lottery as well, as at least 21 PGs or combo guards occupy the top 45 spots in our Top 100 rankings. We're talking about some of the best players in college basketball, including potential All-Americans such as Cassius Winston (Michigan State), Tre Jones (Duke), Devon Dotson (Kansas), Jared Butler (Baylor) and Malachi Flynn (San Diego State). A bit further down in the rankings, there are notable prospects to monitor such as Payton Pritchard (Oregon), Myles Powell (Seton Hall), Markus Howard (Marquette) and Anthony Cowan (Maryland).
Does the NBA have the appetite to absorb such a huge number of players at such a deep position leaguewide? The best way for these players to solidify their standing in the draft: win, win and win some more. A deep NCAA tournament run could be the difference between players mentioned here being drafted in the first round, getting guaranteed money in the second round or missing out entirely.
The big man overload
While we expected this to be a deep point guard crop, the number of elite big men to choose from appeared limited in our preseason projections. That's changed dramatically since the start of the college season, as we've seen several collegiate big men put up impressive seasons, namely Obi Toppin (Dayton), Onyeka Okongwu (USC), Zeke Nnaji (Arizona), Tyler Bey (Colorado), Udoka Azubuike (Kansas), Vernon Carey (Duke), Daniel Oturu (Minnesota), Jalen Smith (Maryland), Filip Petrusev (Gonzaga), Reggie Perry (Mississippi State) and Nick Richards (Kentucky). All would have been strong candidates to be drafted in the first round a decade ago.
While there is no shortage of options, how many big men will the NBA actually want to draft? The 2019 draft saw just one college player over 6-foot-10 (Jaxson Hayes) picked in the first round, and only three centers overall among the first 30 picks (Hayes, Goga Bitadze and Mfiondu Kabengele). Our latest ESPN mock draft has just two centers projected in the lottery (Wiseman and Okongwu) but 18 players who are either centers or spend significant time at the position projected to be picked overall, making for a crowded field.
The NBA trade deadline earlier this month suggests there might not be as much of a market for big men as our projections suggest. We saw starting centers such as Clint Capela and Andre Drummond traded for relatively little value, and backups galore were dumped unceremoniously, often with cash and draft picks attached as enticement.
The supply of solid traditional big men is seemingly unlimited while the number of minutes available to them has dwindled dramatically. Where does that leave this host of ultra-productive players in 2020? We'll have to wait to see in June. In the meantime, standing out in March could make a huge difference for any of these prospects.
The second half of the first round is completely wide open
Players in the top 15 of the ESPN 100 have mostly been atop the board from a fairly early stage. Outside of that group, we've seen a significant amount of movement in each iteration, with players such as Aaron Nesmith (Vanderbilt), Jahmi'us Ramsey (Texas Tech), Devin Vassell (Florida State), Saddiq Bey (Villanova), Leandro Bolmaro (Barcelona) and others moving into the top 30 by virtue of their productivity, positional fit and upside for future improvement.
Although plenty of movement will continue to occur throughout the draft, including the lottery, the Nos. 15-60 portions of our mock are extremely fluid at the moment, with a good amount of depth emerging over the past month. The final month of the season will go a long way in helping NBA teams figure out how to rank this part of the draft. And pre-draft workouts, background checks, medical evaluations and other criteria (including who is willing to be stashed overseas or accept two-way contracts) will do the rest.
Youngest draft ever?
Last year's draft class tied for the youngest ever, with just eight players age 21 or older on draft night selected in the first round. That figure could very well get smashed in 2020, if our projections thus far hold up. Right now only four such players -- Obi Toppin, Precious Achiuwa (turning 21 a week before the draft), Saddiq Bey and Cassius Winston -- are projected in the first round, with the likes of Jordan Nwora (Louisville), Tyler Bey (Colorado), Abdoulaye N'Doye (Cholet), Malachi Flynn (San Diego State), Grant Riller (Charleston), Skylar Mays (LSU) and Corey Kispert (Gonzaga) threatening to crack the first round from the Nos. 31-45 range of our Top 100.
We expect our first-round draft projections to skew older as more experienced players lift their teams into deep tournament runs, as productivity tends to eventually outpace youth and potential, if last year's draft is any indication -- but by how much and to what extent is yet to be decided.
Mid-major tournaments to watch
One of the most exciting parts of March is watching prospects from smaller schools take center stage. That starts with conference tourneys, with their added drama of a winner-take-all format that gives older players one last chance to extend their college careers and earn an NCAA tournament berth.
The conference tournaments we'll be watching most closely include (in chronological order):
Mountain West Conference | March 4-7
Players to watch: Malachi Flynn (San Diego State), Jalen Harris (Nevada), Derrick Alston (Boise State), Neemias Queta (Utah State), Bryce Hamilton (UNLV)
The MWC will not only have one of the best teams in college basketball participating in 27-1 San Diego State, but it will also have several interesting draft prospects, including All-America candidate Flynn. Flynn and the Aztecs will likely need to win three conference tournament games in three days, culminating in the championship March 7 (5:30 p.m, CBS), to solidify their chances of a No. 1 NCAA seed. The earlier schedule, combined with its comfortable location in Las Vegas, should make for a strong showing of NBA scouts in attendance.
West Coast Conference | March 5-10
Players to watch: Filip Petrusev (Gonzaga), Corey Kispert (Gonzaga), Killian Tillie (Gonzaga), Joel Ayayi (Gonzaga), Jordan Ford (Saint Mary's), Malik Fitts (Saint Mary's), Colbey Ross (Pepperdine)
Gonzaga will try to lock up a No. 1 seed by winning its conference tournament final (March 10, 9 p.m., ESPN). With the Pac-12 tournament tipping the day after the conclusion of the WCC, expect quite a few NBA scouts to be in attendance to watch the conference's prospects, including three Gonzaga players currently projected to be drafted.
Colonial Athletic Association | March 7-10
Players to watch: Grant Riller (Charleston), Nathan Knight (William & Mary)
The CAA saw two players drafted last year and will be hoping for a similar result once again, as NBA scouts should be out in full force to evaluate two of the top seniors in mid-major basketball. Riller is a NBA athlete who lives inside the paint and has shown enough flashes as a perimeter shooter and passer to pique scouts' interest. His team appears to be a long shot to win the CAA automatic bid after struggling in conference play, which puts an outsized amount of importance on his performance in Washington. The championship game will be on March 10 at 7 p.m. on CBS Sports Network.
America East | March 7, 10 and 14
Player to watch: Anthony Lamb (Vermont)
Barring a surprising upset, Lamb and Vermont should be playing for an automatic bid on their home floor on national TV, providing a great opportunity for NBA executives and fans to watch one of the best players in mid-major basketball. Lamb is having a shockingly inefficient season by his standards, shooting just 48% from 2 and 30% from 3. His chances of hearing his name called on draft night have likely diminished as a result, but Vermont has one of its deepest and most talented teams ever and should be a major threat to win a game or two in the NCAA tournament.
Horizon League | March 3-10
Player to watch: Dantez Walton (Northern Kentucky)
Northern Kentucky has already earned a bye until the semifinals. Should the Norse advance, they'll compete for the automatic bid March 10 at 7 p.m. on ESPN, providing a terrific showcase for do-it-all combo forward Walton to demonstrate his role-player potential. Walton has had a strange season, starting out on fire but missing six weeks of action with a chest injury. He was limited at times and has been inconsistent at others since he was cleared. Still shooting 40% from 3 and providing plenty of defensive versatility and feel, Walton has a chance to build some momentum heading into the pre-draft process.
Atlantic 10 | March 11-15
Player to watch: Obi Toppin (Dayton)
Toppin is the flag-bearer of mid-major hoops, a projected top-10 pick with an unusual pathway to college basketball stardom. Already well-scouted and assured of playing in the NCAA tournament with a high seed, Dayton and Toppin might help their chances of earning a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday by winning the A-10 championship on March 15 (1 p.m. on CBS).
Big West | March 12-14
Player to watch: Lamine Diane (Cal State Northridge)
Nestled into the busiest weekend in college basketball, the Big West tournament is worth keeping an eye on if Diane's CSUN team makes a run to the championship game on March 14 (11:30 p.m., ESPN2). Diane is one of the most unique players in mid-major basketball, a 6-foot-7 guard who stuffs the stat sheet. Ruled academically ineligible for the fall semester and not playing his first game until Dec. 28, Diane missed several opportunities to show how his game translates against top-level competition, something that has made evaluating him as an NBA prospect challenging. While the sophomore has put up huge numbers, his team's conference-worst defense has made it difficult for the Matadors to win many games. At 12-17, CSUN's ability to make a run and earn a surprise automatic bid looks questionable, but it is something scouts will root for nonetheless. Likely to test the waters at the very least, Diane will get plenty of opportunities to be seen throughout the pre-draft process.