When polling most scouts and executives, Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman have consistently been the top three prospects in the 2020 NBA draft, in no particular order.
Deni Avdija now deserves to be in that conversation. The 19-year-old forward is playing a key role for Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague, and he has a real chance to end up as the best player in this class.
"He has great size and a good feel for the game," said former No. 2 pick Derrick Williams, who recently guarded Avdija. "There are players all over the world who are talented, but what really sets Deni apart is his confidence and basketball IQ."
Over his past 10 games, Avdija has posted per-40-minute marks of 18.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.8 turnovers, 1.1 steals and 0.7 blocks, while shooting 65% from 2 and 42% from 3. In his last two EuroLeague contests (both wins), he's averaged 12 points, six rebounds, and three assists in 23 minutes. He has bought into his role as a defender, spot shooter and occasional creator in EuroLeague play, while tapping into more of a playmaker role in the lesser Israeli League.
The improving production is nice to see, but why exactly does Avdija deserve to be mentioned in the draft's upper echelon? After spending five days in Tel Aviv scouting multiple practices, individual workout and games, I'll take a look at that question and some more international scouting highlights.
Modern fit
Avdija is a multipositional player who can defend several spots and function on or off the ball. His size and improved defense play a huge role in his coveted versatility. He is now approaching 6-foot-10 in shoes, weighing 225 pounds. While that added bulk has caused him to look a bit less fluid at times, he's standing up opposing bigs in the post with regularity, thanks to a strong base. He's still foul prone and lacking discipline at times, but he's evolved into one of Maccabi's more valuable defenders.
He has become a verticality artist in the Israeli League, with the ability to attack defensive boards and push tempo. He can create in transition, catch and shoot or operate out of the post, and he's even playing some backup point guard due to Maccabi's injuries.
Avdija still needs to become more consistent from beyond the arc, fine-tune his handle and kick the free throw yips that have plagued him since the summer (shooting 53.7% this season). But in a league that values positional flexibility more than ever, Avdija fits into more lineup combinations than any of his draft counterparts, and he has learned how to play off others in the second-best league in the world. Edwards is the only other player who offers close to the same versatility as Avdija, as he already can play point guard through small forward in a pinch.
Experience
Avdija will be entering the NBA with over 1,000 career EuroLeague and Israeli League minutes. The Israeli League doesn't have elite competition, but getting meaningful burn against EuroLeague powerhouses will speed up his transition to the next level.
"There isn't a very big gap in terms of talent between the NBA and EuroLeague," Williams told ESPN. "I think being able to play top competition at early ages definitely benefits the European guys and prepares them for the NBA."
Avdija also is a FIBA veteran, with two Under-20 European Championship gold medals and a tournament MVP. On top of that, he knows what it's like to play in a pressure-packed environment, where every possession matters and one defensive miscue earns you a spot on the bench.
"EuroLeague has a higher level of importance per regular season game (than the NBA)," Amar'e Stoudemire, now Avdija's teammate, told ESPN. "I'm very impressed with the way he works. I've been around young players -- he has the best attitude toward working and training."
On the flip side, we're working off a 12-game sample for Ball in the NBL, a midlevel league not known for its defense. Wiseman played three college games, with only one against a legitimate opponent. Edwards is gaining valuable experience in the SEC, but even he hasn't always played winning basketball, with Georgia sitting at 12-11.
Floor plus ceiling
In a draft that features a lot of uncertainty, Avdija holds arguably the best combination of floor and ceiling. At the very worst, he's a big combo forward who can make an open 3 (career 32.3% shooter on 434 attempts), defend his position, move off the ball and make the right play.
Even if he never stabilizes as a shooter -- still a big question for some -- there's a sizable role for his prototype. More cautious evaluators see comps to Dario Saric when he was in Philadelphia.
While Saric is a realistic floor, what could really make Avdija special is if he's able to fully tap into his on-ball skill, growing into more of a jumbo guard. Fine-tuning his handle, off hand and pull-up jumper are going to be key. But I've seen enough glimpses of pull-up 3s and pick-and-roll shot-creation in junior competition to wonder whether he could become the primary ball handler in the right system.
Edwards has an advantage by playing for a name-brand coach, Tom Crean, in one of the NCAA's best conferences with an NBA-style game. His athleticism, shotmaking and defensive upside give him star potential. Ball brings superstar highlights and talent. Those who might pass on him fear missing on a generational player. Then there's Wiseman, who tantalizes teams with his combination of tools and potential. I would take both Ball and Edwards ahead of Avdija if the draft were today.
But the gap is a lot smaller than it previously appeared. Looking forward, scouts will have a close eye on what happens to Avdija's minutes when leading scorer Scottie Wilbekin and combo forward Yovel Zoosman return. But if Avdija is able to continue settling into his role as Maccabi makes a EuroLeague Final Four push, it's hard to envision him going outside the top five come June.
Rounding out the top-five prospects in Europe
Including Ball and RJ Hampton, this draft features six to eight potential first-round picks playing outside of the United States. After Avdija, here's how I would rank the rest of the top-five prospects playing in Europe after recently scouting them on a three-week swing.
2. Leandro Bolmaro
I watched the 6-7 Argentine playmaker go for 16 points in a Spanish third division loss to Gran Canaria. With a few American-based executives in the stands, Bolmaro turned in an up-and-down performance, getting to the rim at will, defending with energy and showing glimpses as a facilitator, yet struggling to get going from 3 (1-for-7) and running from his shot in crunch time of a must-win game.
The fact that Bolmaro is now shooting 26% from 3 on 50 attempts is less than ideal, and there are questions about just how efficiently he'll be able to score in the half-court at higher levels. But having watched most of his LEB Silver games and the impact he had early on with the first team, I'd still consider Bolmaro No. 2 behind Avdija. His positional size, nonstop motor, passing creativity and ability to play on the ball as a facilitator or off the ball as a slasher give him an excellent blend of floor and upside.
However, it has been difficult for even European-based scouts to catch Bolmaro, as he often doesn't know until game day if he'll be with the ACB/EuroLeague team or Barcelona's B squad. Barcelona and veteran coach Svetislav Pesic aren't exactly known for embracing the NBA. In late January, plenty of NBA scouts were in Barcelona to catch the second team at 6 p.m. and the first team at 8:30. On paper, this was the perfect time to catch Bolmaro. But two of Barcelona's guards went down with injury, Bolmaro was promoted from the second team midday and then he sat and watched the entire ACB game from the bench as NBA scouts looked on in frustration.
With Barcelona closer to full strength, Bolmaro should be playing more consistently with the second team, allowing scouts to get a consistent feel for his draft stock. The next hurdle becomes figuring out his buyout information; some international scouts have had trouble getting a clear answer. But when you're able to strip all that away and look at Bolmaro the basketball player, there's a lot to like. He showed early in the season that he's more than capable of playing a role off of stars such as Nikola Mirotic, and for stretches with the B team he has given scouts a taste of his upside as a primary shot-creator as he whips the ball all over the floor with either hand. Given his situation, Bolmaro may not hear his name called ahead of French guards Killian Hayes and Theo Maledon, but I'd bet on him turning into the best pro of the three.
Hayes has seen more minutes than any other European prospect in this draft, which has given scouts a clear window into the player he can become at the NBA level. I watched him turn in one of his most efficient games of the season with 15 points, six assists and one turnover on just eight shots, including a clutch step-back 3 to help ice the game.
Hayes' smooth pick-and-roll game, off-the-dribble passing and improved shooting at 6-5 have caught the eye of NBA scouts, with some even considering him a potential top-10 pick with starter potential. He has benefited from additional freedom after moving from Cholet to Ulm, and his lack of elite burst hasn't been as apparent as it might be in a more athletic league. Some scouts are still putting Hayes' production into context as it relates to the rest of the international class, but it's easy to envision him going in the lottery as the second European after Avdija.
4. Theo Maledon
At the mercy of head coach Zvezdan Mitrovic, 6-5 ASVEL guard Maledon hasn't experienced a consistent role on a game-to-game basis. While Mitrovic's willingness to roll with young players last season was a huge reason for Maledon's emergence as a potential top-10 pick, the coach has been far less trusting this season. It has muddied Maledon's NBA evaluation a bit.
As one NBA executive texted me before a EuroLeague game: "Stay turned for the next chapter in 'As the prospects stagnate' brought to you by Euroleague coaches!"
Maledon has had his defensive struggles this season, which have been a source of his inconsistent role. But there's often little rhyme or reason for his benchings, and that fluctuating role could hurt him with American scouts not as familiar with his game -- a versatile guard with size, length, a sound jumper and strong intangibles.
Given the circumstances, Maledon could end up as a draft-day steal, especially if he ends up sliding to a playoff team that will value his ability to play on or off the ball along with his unselfish nature and feel for the game.
5. Aleksej Pokusevski
The 7-1 Serbian big man drew considerable NBA interest early in the season, torching defenses in the Greek second division (an extremely low level of competition). Through eight games with Olympiacos B, the youngest player in the draft class posted per-40-minute averages of 18.8 points, 12.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 2.1 steals and 3.1 blocks while making 3s effortlessly.
Throw on a Pokusevski highlight and it's easy to convince yourself the unique point-center is a potential diamond in the rough. He can push in transition, facilitate, make shots on the move and protect the rim in a pinch. But Pokusevski -- not always seen as a top prospect because of his narrow frame and questionable toughness -- is one of the trickiest players to evaluate given the level of competition and his unique style.
Things have become increasingly challenging over the past few months. Pokusevski hasn't played since Nov. 30, nursing a knee injury. What was first described as a small injury by one of Pokusevski's coaches has sidelined him for 2½ months. With a return date that has been pushed back further and further each month, some scouts have speculated if this is simply a matter of Pokusevski's camp being selective with how much NBA teams see him. He's slated to return in three or four weeks, but when you consider how well he played in front of several NBA executives early on in the season, it would make sense for Pokusevski to be cautious.
Some teams are wondering if Pokusevski's camp has already found an NBA team they feel comfortable with in the late-first or early-second round -- a model that worked with Alen Smailagic, Isaac Bonga and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Quick-hitter scouting notes
• In Poland, I caught Amar Sylla in a Champions League road game. The 6-9 Senegalese big man is one of the draft's more divisive prospects, looking like a sure first-rounder on some nights, while his limited physicality and shaky feel for the game stand out on others. This time around, he looked lost on the offensive end, which affected his motor. Much better suited for an open NBA game than European style of basketball, Sylla has as volatile a draft range as any international draft prospect in this class.
• Standing 6-8 with an ideal basketball frame and length, Paul Eboua gave scouts an accurate representation of who he is at this stage on the road against Bologna, knocking down a pair of 3s, crashing the offensive glass and showing flashes on defense while struggling to make decisions and react on the fly. He's a competitive, energetic forward who is improving as a perimeter shooter, yet he still has quite a bit of room to grow in terms of his defensive instincts, offensive feel and ball skills. But he could be an interesting swing for a team in the Nos. 40 to 60 range with a plan for him in the G League.
• An ultra-productive player at the FIBA youth level for Macedonia, Nenad Dimitrijevic was often written off due to his physical tools. But Dimitrijevic's production this season has caused scouts to give the slight 6-2 guard another look, as he has averaging 20.4 points and 7.4 assists per 40 minutes in 34 ACB and EuroCup games while shooting 59.1% from 2 and 33.3% from 3. He has improved defensively and as a perimeter shooter, and a team might want to invest in him as a second-round draft-and-stash candidate.
• Serbian 7-footer Borisa Simanic had a strong showing in a low-pressure ABA League game, followed by a disheartening effort against Barcelona and Mirotic. Even with his flaws, Simanic is shooting 49.2% from 3 this season. He might be worth a second-round flier.
• While he remains a scrappy defender with on-ball talent, it has been a tough year for Yam Madar's club, Hapoel Tel Aviv, and unless he gets into the Nike Hoop Summit and can really show out, it might make more sense for him to target the 2021 draft, given the glut of point guards.
• Arturs Kurucs struggled in front of more than 10 NBA scouts, but he has nonetheless emerged as a name to keep track of, given his shotmaking ability at age 20.
• Louis Olinde hasn't put up gaudy stats this season and can be a bit passive. But he stands 6-10 with fluidity, some defensive versatility, a sound feel and some ability to make standstill 3s. He's a second-round sleeper candidate, as he plays a role that's not easy to fill in the NBA.
• I got my first look at late-blooming French big man Ismael Kamagate. While still at an early stage of skill development, Kamagate is impressive at 6-11 with long arms and a great frame. If Kamagate can make another leap in the offseason, he could emerge as a legitimate option for teams in the 2021 draft.