Which prospects are rising and falling in the 2020 NBA draft? And what are the potential lottery teams likely to do with their selections?
Now that we're past the NBA trade deadline, the draft picture is starting to take shape. There are already nine teams with at least an 89% chance to end up drafting in the top 10, according to projections via ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), and there are 13 teams with at least an 83% chance to be in the lottery. But there have still been plenty of changes to draft projections, including multiple players rising in the top 10.
Let's run through our new mock draft for both rounds, highlighting nine players who have moved significantly.
More: Top 100 NBA draft rankings
Onyeka Okongwu | Fr. | C | USC
Mock draft: No. 7
Okongwu recently passed two significant tests, posting 23 points, 14 rebounds and 6 blocks at Oregon and then 23 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks at Arizona -- arguably the best competition he'll face in the regular season. Okongwu's impact was felt well beyond the numbers, as he has developed into a devastating force on the defensive end with his ability to cover ground, alter shots around the rim and switch onto anyone. His instincts, timing and mobility give him game-changing potential.
While Okongwu's defense is what makes him special, he has also been quite a force offensively without having any plays run for him. He catches everything thrown his way, displays phenomenal body control and brings soft touch with either hand.
Although not much of a creator or floor-spacer, Okongwu has a high ceiling thanks to his feel and improvement trajectory, leading some scouts to ponder his candidacy as the top big man in this draft (perhaps ahead of James Wiseman). He has moved firmly into our top 10.
Tyrese Haliburton | So. | PG | Iowa State
Mock draft: No. 8
After fracturing his wrist in late December, Haliburton continued to play through injury until reaggravating it on Feb. 8, leading to surgery that will end his season and likely his college career. Still, this season can't be described as anything but a resounding success, as he was able to shoulder a bigger offensive load while expanding his game and remaining efficient.
Haliburton is possibly the most unconventional prospect in this draft. He's a 6-foot-5 point guard who weighs 173 pounds, possessing unorthodox shooting mechanics and a phenomenal feel for the game. Haliburton loves to empower teammates by pushing the ball ahead and igniting the break. He's creative in the half court, showing a propensity for jumping high in the air and finding the open man. He didn't have much help, which depressed his assist numbers, but he will wow you with the way he makes the game easy for teammates.
Haliburton lacks a degree of strength and explosiveness to beat better defenders off the dribble and finish inside the paint, preferring to avoid contact. His lack of physicality can be an issue on the defensive end, as well, as stronger players often go right through him. His pull-up jumper is a work in progress, showing varying mechanics that tend to break down when closely contested. The fact that he has tremendous touch on floaters helps, but he's forced to settle for difficult shots from outside the paint, making it questionable whether he'll ever be able to develop into a primary ball handler and creator in the NBA.
To his credit, Haliburton has plenty of experience operating off the ball and has developed into one of the best 3-point shooters in college basketball with his feet set -- making 49% of such attempts this season, according to Synergy data, and 42% of all 3s for his college career. He contributes in a variety of other areas, as he's an excellent rebounder, regularly gets in the passing lanes and shows terrific timing as a shot-blocker.
Haliburton doesn't fit into a traditional evaluation box and needs to have the right teammates around him to be successful, which makes projecting his draft stock a bit tricky. He's likely going to be more appealing to teams with star prospects already in place. But considering he's essentially the same age as some of the freshmen in this class, he will probably continue to expand his game as his frame adds bulk.
Aaron Nesmith | So. | SF | Vanderbilt
Mock draft: No. 16
Nesmith's sophomore season was cut short after 14 games, but he displayed plenty of development during that time, averaging 23 points and shooting 52% from 3 on eight attempts per game. He combines that production with ideal physical attributes for an NBA wing, standing 6-6 with a shredded frame and a wingspan projected around seven feet. He's a good athlete who can play above the rim in transition, showing the ability to bounce off of opponents on straight-line drives and get to the free throw line at a solid rate. Nesmith is one of the best prospects in this class shooting off of screens, needing very little time or space to get into his jumper. A deadly floor spacer with his feet set, he is also a capable option shooting off the dribble or attacking a closeout.
Although he shows flashes of being able to execute basic passes and doesn't turn the ball over often, Nesmith's assist rate is the second-worst among non-bigs in this class. The lack of capable scoring options around him at Vanderbilt certainly didn't help, but he has a lot of room to grow. He's a fairly clunky ball handler who doesn't have the best feel, looking a bit wild at times, hoisting up difficult shots in the midrange or barreling into the lane for offensive fouls. That extends to the defensive end, as he doesn't always know the scouting report and can be a step slow reacting off the ball. His size, length and strength gives him some room to grow in this area over time, but he'll have to bring more consistent energy.
As other prospects in the mid-first round have faltered, Nesmith has gotten more buzz from scouts with teams going back to study his film and seeing a clear role for him in the NBA. Players with his physical tools who can shoot on the move are valuable. Nesmith has a chance to continue to help himself in the pre-draft process with strong interviews and workouts demonstrating he's healthy.
Devin Vassell | So. | SG | FSU
Mock draft: No. 18
A bit player as a freshman, Vassell has blossomed into a first-team All-ACC candidate on a top-10 FSU team. Ranking only sixth on his own team in usage rate, Vassell has always intrigued analytics models with his high steal, block and rebounding rates combined with his age (19.5) and sparkling 3-point percentage (42%), but his offensive outbursts against some of the lesser ACC teams have helped established him as a legitimate first-round prospect.
Vassell has good size and length for a wing, with long arms and a frame that should fill out in time. His shot-making has been impressive -- not just from deep, but also with pull-ups in the midrange. His aggressiveness does get the better of him on occasion, though, as he's an average athlete who struggles to create his own offense at times due to his rudimentary ball-handling and feel, having a difficult time getting much going inside the arc against top competition
Vassell likely will be asked to be more of a go-to guy in big games heading into March, which should be telling. He was unexpectedly benched for FSU's latest game, against Syracuse, for disciplinary reasons, which is something teams will be monitoring.
Daniel Oturu | So. | C | Minnesota
Mock draft: No. 37
Arguably the best player in what many consider the toughest conference in college basketball, Oturu has made a strong case as a first-rounder. Slightly undersized for a center -- measuring 6-9 prior to college -- Oturu is a fluid and agile big man with long arms. He has benefited from the outsized role he has been forced to shoulder for 12-12 Minnesota, allowing him to score from all over the floor.
Oturu does most of his damage in the post with his 240-pound frame, showing physicality carving out space, strong footwork mixing in spin moves and the ability to use either hand to score off the glass. He has also demonstrated some potential stepping outside and shooting 3s, making midrange jumpers or creating his own shot in small doses.
Oturu isn't much of a passer, and his poor assist-to-turnover ratio does put somewhat of a damper on his shot-creation potential, but he should continue to improve his feel over time. His defense has been a mixed bag this season, as he shows somewhat questionable decision-making while still figuring out how to use his tools on a consistent basis.
Players at age 20 who produce at Oturu's level are clear NBA prospects, but the value of players in his mold has dipped, which might relegate him to the second round. With Minnesota appearing likely to miss the NCAA tournament, Oturu might consider returning to college, fine-tuning his skills and trying to enter the NBA on a higher note next year.
Malachi Flynn | Jr. (RS) | PG | SDSU
Mock draft: No. 43
The engine behind the lone undefeated college basketball team, Flynn has quietly turned himself into a potential All-American. What Flynn lacks in prototypical tools, he makes up for with skill, pace and feel. He has deep range, the ability to create and finish with either hand, soft touch on floaters and impeccable skills operating out of pick-and-roll. He has come alive in several crucial, late-game situations this season, showing tremendous confidence.
With San Diego State currently tracking as a No. 1 seed, Flynn should have several opportunities to emerge on the national spotlight in March. Scouts will want to see how he compares physically with better athletes and top competition. Can he defend quicker guards while still being able to create efficient offense in the half court? A deep tournament run would certainly go a long way.
Grant Riller | Sr. | PG/SG | Charleston
Mock draft: No. 42
Riller has taken his game to another level as a senior, upping his volume, improving his playmaking ability and becoming a knock-down, 3-point shooter in conference play.
Standing 6-3 with tremendous athletic ability, Riller is one of the best slashers in all of college basketball. He's able to get anywhere he wants on the floor with his quick first step, ability to change gears, tremendous body control, polished footwork and excellent ballhandling skills. Once inside the paint, Riller has an advanced layup package and impressive touch, as well as the willingness to absorb contact. He has gradually improved his ability to create for others, even if he's a born scorer. However, it's not rare to see him make good passes that aren't converted.
After starting the season on somewhat of a cold streak from beyond the arc, Riller has been on a tear in 2020, making 44% of his 64 attempts. Considering his somewhat slight frame and potential off-ball role in the NBA, this is an important factor for his transition to the pro game. Scouts will also want to learn more about his defense, which is poor at the moment. He seems to mostly view this end of the floor as an opportunity to rest. When engaged, Riller does seem to have some quickness staying in front of opponents and the instincts to get in the passing lanes, but his effort level really comes and goes.
Nick Richards | Jr. | C | Kentucky
Mock draft: No. 50
A bit player in his first two years at Kentucky, Richards has been a different player since coming up huge in a rivalry win over Louisville in late December. He's now a legitimate SEC player of the year candidate.
Richards' appeal starts with his tremendous physical tools -- a 7-footer with a 7-5 wingspan, a chiseled, 250-pound frame and impressive athleticism. That translates to the defensive end, where Richards switches onto guards, covers ground well and uses his length to contest jumpers, while also having the bulk to bang with traditional bigs and protect the rim. Kentucky mostly keeps things simple for him offensively, but his ability to explode off two feet and finish is a huge advantage. Richards has some real touch, even starting to make free throws (75%) and midrange jumpers in small doses.
The game still moves too fast for him at times, which shows most notably on the defensive glass and when asked to make simple passes. No college player in the past 30 years has been drafted with a combined assist and steal rate are as low as Richards'. Considering he's already 22, his poor feel for the game is certainly a concern when projecting him to the NBA, where his physical advantages won't be quite as pronounced.
Most of Richards' worst games this season came against similar-size players, so it will be important for him to continue to produce against elite competition heading into March. Despite his shortcomings, Richards has moved himself back into consideration as a draftable player, something that looked likely when he first enrolled at Kentucky and just took longer than initially expected.
David Johnson | Fr. | PG | Louisville
A top-100 recruit, Johnson suffered a torn labrum in July that ruled him out for almost the entire summer and knocked him out of the Cardinals' rotation until mid-December. But he has shown some impressive sparks of potential since being cleared to play, averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists and 2 steals per 40 minutes coming off the bench, most notably posting 19 points, 7 assists and 4 rebounds in a road win at Duke in which he was clearly the best player on the floor. While Johnson has been up and down since, he looks like one of the most gifted freshman guards in the country from a physical standpoint, and he has impressive creativity as a ball handler, even at age 18.
Johnson has excellent size for a guard at 6-5, with a strong frame, long arms and terrific athleticism. He's aggressive in the open floor, with terrific body control and the ability to finish through contact. He shows flashes of playmaking ability out of pick-and-roll, using nifty bounce passes and lobs to find his big men or seeing over the top of the defense for weakside cutters. But Johnson gets a little loose with the ball and can be questionable as a decision-maker, with his lack of experience showing at times.
The biggest things he'll have to address are his jumper and funky mechanics -- something he'll have to seriously improve to make it at the next level. His defensive feel also isn't great, as he gets lost off the ball, buried behind screens and taken advantage of by older and craftier guards. He does show plenty of long-term potential, though, mostly thanks to his physical tools.
Louisville has limited shot creation on its roster and will likely need Johnson to emerge as a viable, ACC-level point guard. A big NCAA tournament game or two in March could help Johnson emerge in NBA circles, but in all likelihood, his sophomore season is where he should begin to gain real steam as a prospect.