In six weeks, Dayton forward Obi Toppin could win the Wooden Award or lead the Flyers to the Final Four. In June, Toppin could also hear his name selected in the 2020 NBA draft.
But less than four years ago, Toppin didn't have a single Division I offer when his high school career ended at Ossining High School. He could have attended Monroe College, a junior college north of New York City, but he was aiming higher. Instead, Toppin headed south to Mt. Zion Prep in Baltimore to do a prep school year.
At the time, Mt. Zion coach Rodrick Harrison thought college programs had likely missed the boat on Toppin.
"When I saw him, I told a lot of people they got that one wrong," Harrison recalled. "He played in a small area outside of New York City. The recruitment side is based on where you're at now. Guys don't really trust their eyes. ... He moved different, he looked different. How did they mess this up?"
During his one season at Mt. Zion, Toppin played alongside five other future Division I players, most notably Teshaun Hightower (Georgia, now Tulane) and Isaiah Whaley (UConn). The steady stream of college recruiters coming in and out of the gym quickly led to an uptick in interest around Toppin.
Georgia was the first school to make an offer; Texas A&M, Minnesota, Texas Tech and Dayton followed.
"He got more athletic, he grew up a couple inches here," Harrison said. "He started shooting the ball more from the perimeter. He could switch out on guards and guard them for more than one or two dribbles. He matured. One year makes a big difference. He got a chance to show he could do it against high-level competition."
Toppin was ready to take visits, with several schools on his list. Dayton was first, and it wouldn't get any further than that.
"He's a family-oriented type of person," Harrison said. "He didn't want to go on any more visits because it felt like home to him. That's how he operates. He wasn't after glamour. He didn't care if it was Division I, II or III. 'It's got a good fan base and everyone is welcoming me here. This is what I'm going to do.' And a few days later, he committed."
Toppin bought into spending time in the weight room in addition to his development on the court.
"They took a flier on a high-upside guy and it paid off. They even acknowledge that privately," ESPN recruiting analyst Adam Finkelstein said, pun presumably unintended. "His physical upside was very clear, but he didn't like contact and was nowhere near the player he is now. He's also the biggest physical late-bloomer I've seen in years. The way his body changed in three years is crazy."
There would be a delay in Toppin's true breakout, however. Upon arriving in Dayton, he redshirted his first season for academic reasons. It's worked out: Toppin is averaging 19.7 points and 7.9 rebounds and Dayton sits at 22-2.
"Obi could have played at Kansas," Harrison said. "The only thing he was waiting for was his body to mature. He put on like 15 pounds, but he still looked like a little boy.
"Now, you see Obi as Superman."
Iowa plants seed early to land Luka Garza
During the early stages of Luka Garza's recruitment, it was mostly schools in the Washington, D.C., area and a few smaller colleges in the mix. When Iowa offered Garza a scholarship toward the end of his sophomore year of high school, it raised some eyebrows.
But it wasn't a mistake. Hawkeyes coach Fran McCaffery had an advantage over the competition because of his son Connor. Connor was invited to the Nike Elite 100 camp in 2015, and Fran was allowed to attend while other college coaches were not. At that camp, McCaffery watched Garza go head-to-head against current Ohio State star Kaleb Wesson. He was convinced enough to extend an offer.
"That one came out of nowhere," said Luka's dad, Frank.
It would take almost another year for Garza's recruitment to really take off. He joined the Team Takeover AAU program on the Nike Elite Youth Basketball circuit and was thrust into the starting lineup. During the spring of and summer after his junior year of high school, Garza went against some of the best big men in the country: Wendell Carter, Deandre Ayton and Brandon McCoy. He held his own against all of them.
"It was his fundamentals and footwork, his ability to step away from the basket and make shots," Team Takeover coach Keith Stevens said. "He's always had some of the best fundamentals in his class. He plays almost like a European-type game, with ball fakes and a quick-twitch game."
That's not a coincidence; Frank Garza played at Idaho under Bill Trumbo, who spent a lot of time coaching basketball in Europe, specifically the former Yugoslavia. Frank and Trumbo handled most of Luka's training and development, spending time in Hawai'i and Bosnia over the past few summers.
"We had prepared for it," Frank said of Luka's breakout spring and summer in 2016. "We knew he would be a late bloomer. We know the big guys didn't want to come out from the basket. He got a chance to show some of his prowess on the outside."
The scholarship offers started flying in. Alabama, Georgia, Louisville, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Saint Joseph's were all in the mix. Iowa was still the team to beat, but Garza and his father wanted to take visits before making a decision. They took unofficial visits to Louisville and Georgetown; they also went to Alabama, where they met football coach Nick Saban and where then-hoops coach Avery Johnson said, "You know I coached Dirk [Nowitzki]? I'm gonna have Luka do that." A coach from Georgia left voicemails with Georgia-themed songs, but the Garzas never ended up making the trip to Athens.
Luka committed to Iowa in early September 2016.
"It wasn't just the relationship," Frank Garza said of McCaffery. "He looked at my son and could see what I saw. He proved it by me asking questions and he convinced me he saw what was in my boy. His heart, his intangibles. That he's a basketball player, not an athlete. Secondly, will you allow him and his heart to blossom in these situations? He convinced me that he saw that, and no other coach did that. ... Fran saw what you're seeing now, back then, when [Luka] couldn't walk and chew gum at the same time."
Garza can do a lot more than that now: He's averaging 23.1 points, 9.9 rebounds and 1.7 blocks and is a Wooden Award front-runner.
Loyalty pays off for Big East scoring stars
Markus Howard's late 3-pointer to beat the buzzer in a crushing loss to Villanova makes him the all-time leading scorer in Big East history.
Marquette's Markus Howard and Seton Hall's Myles Powell are often linked together. They were ranked just three spots apart in the 2016 ESPN 100, both play in the Big East and are two of the best scorers in college basketball.
And they ultimately committed to the first coaches to recruit them.
In Howard's case, the relationship began just after his freshman year of high school, when he committed to Arizona State and coach Herb Sendek. Less than seven months later, Howard was back on the market and Sendek was out of Tempe. But the lead assistant at Arizona State was Stan Johnson, who would leave Bobby Hurley's Sun Devils staff after a few weeks to join Steve Wojciechowski at Marquette.
The first recruiting call Johnson made after getting to Milwaukee? You guessed it.
"Before I even talked to Wojo about it, [Howard] was my first call," Johnson said. "Made a call to his family, told them I'm going to make the switch. I said I would love to recruit him there. Wojo hadn't seen him yet, [Howard] was young. I said he was a no-brainer. So when I got settled, [we set an] unofficial visit. ... Markus is such a relationship kid, and our relationship, with the years that had been established. Me going to Milwaukee, saying the same things, believing the same things when we were together at Arizona State. I think that pulled on him."
But it wasn't an easy close for Johnson. Arizona State remained involved with Howard due to the in-state connection, Arizona jumped in late, and Indiana was a factor. Baylor was the toughest competition for Marquette, however. Howard took an official visit to Waco, Texas, two weeks after visiting Marquette, and he thought there was a real chance he would end up playing for Scott Drew.
Howard committed to Marquette in early April and announced he would reclassify and enroll in college the next fall. Four years later, he is the program's all-time leading scorer and the No. 1 scorer in college basketball.
"If you would've seen Markus as a ninth- or 10th-grader, he could score just like he did now. Just on a smaller level. He had a knack to score like no one I've seen," Johnson said. "He's really, really special. He's got a gift. This guy has a gift. ... He's always wanted to be great. Did I think he would lead the country in scoring? I don't know that. But I knew if he was with us for four years, he was going to be a remarkable player. That's what he's turned into."
Howard's conference counterpart has a slightly different story. Seton Hall was the first school to make an offer to Powell back in 10th grade -- and the early offer would end up making the difference later in his high school career after a number of other schools entered the fray for the New Jersey native.
Former Seton Hall assistant Shaheen Holloway -- now head coach at St. Peter's -- was the lead recruiter for Powell and first saw the scoring guard in ninth grade. Holloway liked his scoring ability and thought he could be an impact player if he developed his body a bit more. Once that started, Powell's recruitment took a major step.
DePaul, VCU, UConn, Pittsburgh and UCLA were all involved down the stretch, but Powell and close friend Bryce Aiken took a visit to Seton Hall's campus, and the trip was enough to convince Powell.
"The plan was to get both of those guys. That was going to be Seton Hall's future backcourt," Holloway said. "Myles was locked in and sold. Bryce chose Harvard; you can't argue with that.
"With Myles, he's a very loyal kid. He didn't forget we were the first school to offer him. He and I had a very good relationship and he had a very good relationship with the guys on the team. He felt comfortable and I think he just wanted to stay home. I didn't think at first he wanted to stay home, but once he understood it, saw what we had to offer, he was sold."
When Powell arrived at Seton Hall, he was the young newcomer on a team filled with veterans. But he found ways to affect games with his scoring, whether it was bringing a boost off the bench or providing shooting in the starting lineup. And as a junior and senior, he broke out, emerging as one of the elite scorers nationally and averaging better than 22.0 points over his past two seasons.
"He had the skillset, he always could shoot the basketball," Holloway said. "Seton Hall did a great job when I was there, and since I've been gone, of developing players. ... His freshman year for us, he made an impact. Sophomore year, he made an impact. It's not like he busted out of nowhere. He's been doing it since he came to college. They're doing a great job with him. [Coach Kevin] Willard is putting good pieces around him. People are seeing what we saw five years ago."
Wooden Award finalists: The rest of the best
Udoka Azubuike, Kansas (No. 22 in 2016): Azubuike was nothing like the 270-pound, dominant dunker he is now when he arrived in the United States from his home of Nigeria in 2012. Then a 185-pound soccer player, he developed into a five-star prospect and McDonald's All American, and the likes of Kansas, Florida State and North Carolina were consistently involved. He eventually picked Kansas in late January of his senior year.
Saddiq Bey, Villanova (unranked four-star in 2018): Bey originally committed to NC State over Miami, but reopened his recruitment the same day Kentucky transfer Sacha Killeya-Jones committed to the Wolfpack. Before Bey's freshman season, there was plenty of discussion about the forward possibly redshirting during his first year in the program. He scored 16 points in the season opener and hasn't looked back.
Jared Butler, Baylor (No. 88 in 2018): Butler took a unique road to being the starting point guard for the No. 1 Bears. He committed to Alabama before his senior season began, but was granted a release from his letter of intent in late August -- just a couple weeks after Kira Lewis committed to the Crimson Tide. Butler committed to Baylor and received a transfer waiver to play right away last season.
Vernon Carey Jr., Duke (No. 6 in 2019): Carey took his time going through his recruitment. He visited Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina, Miami and Kentucky. The Hurricanes were long thought to be a major contender for Carey -- his father played football at Miami and later for the Miami Dolphins, while coach Jim Larranaga and his staff sat four-deep at most of his high school games. But they didn't end up making his final three. Duke overtook Michigan State in the weeks before Carey made his commitment.
Anthony Cowan Jr., Maryland (No. 62 in 2016): It always appeared unlikely Cowan would end up anywhere but Maryland. His ties to the school ran deep, having grown up in the area and having multiple family members either attend school or work at College Park. He ended his recruitment early, committing in January of his junior year.
Devon Dotson, Kansas (No. 24 in 2018): Florida was one of the favorites for Dotson, but the Gators took commitments from ESPN 100 guards Andrew Nembhard and Noah Locke in the fall of 2017. It came down to Kansas and Maryland, with Dotson taking official visits to both schools and hosting both coaching staffs in the final days. The Jayhawks won out and thought they had their backcourt of the future when Quentin Grimes committed a few weeks later.
Anthony Edwards, Georgia (No. 4 in 2019): Edwards reclassified from 2020 to 2019 in November of his final year of high school and immediately became the most sought-after prospect in the country. He would ultimately stay home and play at Georgia, choosing the Bulldogs over Kentucky. For much of his recruitment, Florida State was a legitimate option, but he canceled his official visit to Tallahassee just before committing.
Malachi Flynn, San Diego State (unranked in 2016): Flynn stayed home for college, committing to in-state Washington State. He made an immediate impact for the Cougars, averaging 9.7 points as a freshman and 15.8 points as a sophomore before deciding to transfer. It came down to San Diego State, Creighton and a couple others, with Flynn choosing the Aztecs. In a cruel twist for the Bluejays, Flynn scored 21 points against them earlier this season in a 31-point victory.
Tre Jones, Duke (No. 17 in 2018): Was there any doubt Jones would follow in his older brother's footsteps and play for the Blue Devils? They first offered Jones in 2015, early in his sophomore year, when Tyus was running the show in Durham, North Carolina. There was some thought in the weeks before his commitment that Duke wasn't totally a done deal, but Jones chose the Blue Devils and eventually helped land Cam Reddish, RJ Barrett and Zion Williamson.
Jordan Nwora, Louisville (No. 56 in 2017): Nwora didn't have the recruitment he wanted when he played at The Park School in Buffalo, so he transferred to Vermont Academy for a postgrad year and teamed up with the New York Rens on the Nike EYBL circuit. Scholarship offers began pouring in, but Rick Pitino and Louisville won out before Nwora's season at Vermont even started. After considering a transfer following a drama-filled first season with the Cardinals, Nwora stayed and established himself as the best player in the ACC.
Daniel Oturu, Minnesota (No. 57 in 2018): Richard Pitino put a huge emphasis on in-state prospects in the 2018 class, with Oturu the crown jewel (beside Tre Jones). The Golden Gophers offered Oturu early in the process, in the summer before his junior year. He ended his recruitment a few months later, in January of his junior year -- despite Kansas jumping into the mix in November. Oturu was one of the best rebounders on the EYBL circuit, but it was difficult to foresee a potential two-and-done college career.
Filip Petrusev, Gonzaga (No. 56 in 2018): Gonzaga has developed a reputation for getting in on European players early in the process and closing the deal before anyone else knows how good they are. That wasn't the case with Petrusev. "They were the last school to recruit me," he said. The Serbia native went to Montverde Academy (Florida) for his final season of high school and had a number of schools in pursuit. But Gonzaga's history with international players -- and the Zags' tendency to play through their bigs -- was the difference for Petrusev.
Payton Pritchard, Oregon (No. 54 in 2016): It originally looked as though Pritchard would end up at Oklahoma. He committed to the Sooners in November of his junior year; both of Pritchard's parents went to Oklahoma, with his father having played tight end on the football team. Pritchard decommitted in the summer before his senior year, though, and the in-state Oregon Ducks won out. Michigan and Kansas looked to get involved, but he took multiple visits to Eugene and built too strong a relationship with Dana Altman.
Jalen Smith, Maryland (No. 10 in 2018): Maryland worked hard for Smith, and it paid off. He first visited the College Park campus as a freshman in high school, and the Terrapins extended a scholarship offer early in his sophomore campaign. He would take a handful of other visits to Maryland, while also going to Villanova, Georgetown, Syracuse and others. But the Terps were always at the forefront. "The whole time we knew it was Maryland or Villanova," Team Takeover's Stevens said. "Even when Duke and those guys started reaching out. They always wanted him close to home." Smith took his official visit to Maryland on June 23 and committed days later. It was good timing. Less than a month later, "Stix" dominated the prestigious Nike Peach Jam in leading Team Takeover to a title.
Lamar Stevens, Penn State (unranked four-star in 2016): Stevens followed the usual recruiting process during his high school career, going from a regional prospect with offers from Villanova and Philadelphia's Big 5 schools and Penn State to a player with offers from Indiana, Maryland and Florida State. Stevens would transfer to Roman Catholic High School before his senior year, though, which would be a boost for Nittany Lions coach Pat Chambers. Three players from Roman Catholic would commit to Penn State in 2016: Stevens, Tony Carr and Nazeer Bostick.
Cassius Winston, Michigan State (No. 31 in 2016): Coach Tom Izzo zeroed in on Winston as his primary point guard target in the 2016 class and won out early in the fall of 2015. Winston also had Pittsburgh and Stanford on his final list, and took official visits to all three schools and hosted all three programs for in-home visits in the week before his commitment. But Michigan State had the in-state advantage and also was the final official visit for Winston. Winston would also help land top-10 prospect Miles Bridges a few weeks later.