The first big college basketball games of the 2020 NBA draft scouting calendar tip off this week, including Tuesday night's Champions Classic, which features Kansas-Duke and Michigan State-Kentucky (7 p.m. and 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/WatchESPN).
What positions are weakest and strongest in the draft? How do the top prospects project statistically? Who are the potential sleepers to monitor?
Our NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton answer the big questions about this 2020 class and what to expect throughout the year.
What are the big traded picks to watch?
Givony: The Boston Celtics own the Memphis Grizzlies' first-rounder, protected Nos. 1-6 in 2020 and unprotected in 2021. ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) ranks the Grizzlies as the second-worst team in the league, but they currently are projected to win the least amount of games (23) due to being in the much stronger Western Conference. The Grizzlies might decide to do everything in their power to keep this pick, which under the new lottery odds would only happen for certain if they finish 30th or 29th overall. Right now, BPI projects Boston has a 9.2% chance of getting the selection.
A top-10 team getting a high lottery pick definitely changes the complexion of a draft, both in terms of potential trades and the type of player the Celtics might target (as opposed to a rebuilding team). If the pick rolls over to 2021 -- where there appears to be a great deal of star power -- the Celtics likely won't be devastated, as Memphis still seems to be far away from contending for the playoffs.
The Brooklyn Nets dealt a lottery-protected first-rounder to the Atlanta Hawks as part of the Taurean Prince trade. An unexpectedly rough start for the Nets makes you wonder about the chances the Hawks might have to wait a year to reap the fruits of that deal. BPI still only gives Brooklyn a 36.5% chance of ending up in the lottery, but an extra pick in the teens is a great outcome for an Atlanta team already loaded with cap space and assets.
The Cleveland Cavaliers' first-rounder is owned by the New Orleans Pelicans, protected Nos. 1-10. It converts to second-round picks in 2021 and 2022 if not conveyed. The Cavs have been a little friskier than expected, but BPI gives them a 98.3% chance of safely holding onto this pick.
The Indiana Pacers also are worth monitoring, as they traded a lottery-protected first-round pick to the Milwaukee Bucks in the Malcolm Brogdon deal. After a rocky opening week, Indiana is back up to .500, with a greater than 90% chance to make the playoffs and give up their pick, per BPI.
How does the strength of the international class make this draft different?
Givony: The 2016 draft was a major turning point for NBA front offices on the international front, with a record eight players from outside the United States selected in the first round (and 16 picks overall). That class of players can't be described as anything but a failure, as all but two of the 16 (Juan Hernangomez and Ivica Zubac) had their rookie team options declined, are currently out of an NBA rotation or are not in the league at all. Following that, 2017 to 2019 saw the lowest three-year total of non-U.S. first-round picks (seven overall) since 1997 to 1999.
There's a good chance that things are different this time around. Four of the top seven players in our Top 100 rankings are currently playing outside of the U.S., and we've identified at least 22 other draft-eligible international prospects thus far that we consider realistic candidates to hear their names called in June.
Both Mike Schmitz and I already made the trek out to Australia to watch the NBL's Next Star prospects RJ Hampton and LaMelo Ball, who are part of the reason for this resurgence. We're both planning long trips to Europe in January, as well, where we'll check in on most of the draft-eligible candidates who might end up making up this banner class of international prospects.
What positions are weakest and strongest in this draft class?
Schmitz: Point guard is far and away the strength right now. Nine of our current top-20 prospects could be considered point guards, even if some are more wired to score than others. Add in Anthony Edwards, who figures to play a fair amount on the ball at Georgia and in the NBA, and that number rises to 10.
The trend doesn't stop at the top, either. The draft should be loaded with quality guard depth, including Cassius Winston (Michigan State), Ashton Hagans (Kentucky), Kira Lewis Jr. (Alabama) and Arturs Zagars (Joventut).
What makes matters even more intriguing: Several of the likely lottery teams -- Memphis, Cleveland, Washington -- already are flush with guards. Now, maybe more than ever, a team's philosophy in drafting need vs. best available will be tested.
For the guard-heavy teams, there's no shortage of wings and forwards in our top 20. But for front offices searching for a franchise center, the options are slim. Potential No. 1 pick James Wiseman (Memphis) is the only center prospect in our top-10, with Isaiah Stewart (Washington) following him at No. 12 overall. Hybrid 4/5 Makur Maker is the next true big up at No. 25.
Maker is the wild card to keep an eye on here. A near-7-footer who spaces the floor and handles the ball should intrigue several teams drafting in the top 20, though it's still unclear if he'll be deemed eligible for the 2020 draft.
How do the top prospects project statistically?
Pelton: Here are this year's preseason top-10 college players in my consensus draft model, which incorporates both stats-only NBA projections and where players rank in our top 100. Freshmen who played in the Nike EYBL are included. (Thanks to Neil Johnson of ESPN Analytics for compiling EYBL stats.)
Largely because of the international-heavy nature of this year's draft, just two of our top seven prospects have projections. (No. 2 prospect Edwards played AAU in the Under Armour UAA.) They had different AAU experiences. Cole Anthony posted two of the four highest-rated EYBL seasons among my translations (which cover 2012 through 2018), registering outstanding assist and steal rates and scoring with high efficiency. As a result, he enters his freshman season with the best projection of any player by a wide margin.
Wiseman was less impressive, generating few assists and steals and scoring with only average efficiency. However, Wiseman's two EYBL seasons covered fewer than 700 minutes combined, so we'll surely learn far more about him as a college freshman. That performance will ultimately make up the bulk of his NBA projection, giving Wiseman the opportunity to move up these rankings.
Three lower-ranked freshman crack the top 10 here based on the strength of their EYBL performance. Wendell Moore Jr. shot accurately inside the arc and posted a high assist rate for a wing, Tyrese Maxey finished well for his size and Boogie Ellis' high-volume, accurate 3-point shooting was impressive.
The projections for returning players also are dominated by point guards, with three in the top 10. Tyrese Haliburton rated well in stats-only projections as a freshman because of his accurate shooting (69% on 2s, 43% on 3s) and strong steal and block rates. An impressive showing in the FIBA U19 World Cup showed Haliburton could be successful while creating more offense for himself and others, moving him up our top 100.
We're in Year 2 of lottery reform. Do you expect teams to approach the draft any differently?
Pelton: It's interesting how few teams went into this year without any hope of competing. In the West, only the Grizzlies didn't at least aspire to make the playoffs. I do think that's an example of teams prioritizing competitiveness now that the lottery offers fewer guarantees for bad teams.
At the same time, that also created an opportunity for a slow-starting would-be contender to pack it in and take an early lead in the race to the bottom. The Golden State Warriors seem to have taken full advantage after a broken bone in Stephen Curry's left hand sidelined him for several months.
I'm also curious whether the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Lakers jumping up in the lottery will affect the decision-making of teams on the fringe of the playoff race come late January. Will they prioritize lottery positioning over the faint hope of making a run at the eighth seed?
What is your biggest lesson learned from the 2019 NBA draft?
Givony: The top 23 players in the ESPN 100 at the moment are either freshmen or teenagers, showing just how much of a premium we place on upside when it comes to forecasting the draft. Last year's draft tells us that a lot of that should get thrown out the window once the actual college games tip.
Who were the biggest risers last year, comparing our initial projections and the actual results? Older players such as Brandon Clarke, Grant Williams, Dylan Windler and Mfiondu Kabengele, who were nowhere to be found in our first mock draft but ended up getting picked in the first round after All-American-caliber seasons. De'Andre Hunter moved up seven spots from our first forecast. Jarrett Culver, Cameron Johnson, Matisse Thybulle, Carsen Edwards and Bruno Fernando all rose at least 10 spots. These were the best players in the college game. It just took a few months of action for us to realize that and have them slotted as such.
We're definitely going to have our eyes open for which older players emerge from the pack, especially those from winning teams.
Pelton: Teams adjusted to the relative abundance of quality centers in the league, drafting just one 5 (Texas product Jaxson Hayes) among the first 16 picks a year after taking either three or four of them (depending how you classify Jaren Jackson Jr.) in the first eight picks.
The 2020 draft will pose a compelling question about how teams are valuing centers, given Wiseman is the top prospect in our top 100 and Washington's Stewart also is projected in the lottery.
Cutting-edge statistical research, including FiveThirtyEight's new RAPTOR player ratings, suggests that centers who can create their own offense are still highly valuable. Wiseman should fit into that category. We'll see whether Stewart's post-centric skill set puts him in that group, as well.
Schmitz: Teams appear to be relying more on collegiate production and maturity as opposed to pure upside plays that often characterized previous drafts.
Nassir Little is a perfect example. I figured his tools would be enough for him to hear his name called in the top 20, but seeing guys such as Grant Williams, Brandon Clarke, PJ Washington, Cam Johnson and Ty Jerome all go ahead of him was proof to me that teams are valuing lower-risk prospects who can step in and play a role right away more than ever. Talented prospects such as Nicolas Claxton, KZ Okpala and Bol Bol going in the second round further supports that notion.
Sure, players such as Carsen Edwards or Eric Paschall are still going to go a little lower than projected, but the days of a Thon Maker or Georgios Papagiannis going in the lottery seem to be behind us for now.
Which sleeper prospect are you highest on to start the year?
Givony: Quietly, NBA general managers such as OKC's Sam Presti have been making their way back to far-flung gyms in the Greek second division over the past few weeks to get their eyes on a tall, skinny, long-armed big man with guard skills who has been filling up the stat sheet and creating some real buzz with his versatility and athleticism. Sound familiar?
That's where the Giannis Antetokounmpo comparisons end for Aleksej Pokusevski. However, there are definitely reasons to be intrigued with the 7-footer. He has averaged 11 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks and 1 steal in 25 minutes per game through four contests. His efficiency (44% from 2, 29% from 3, 71% on free throws) still leaves something to be desired, but the fact that he is playing in a men's league at age 17 is notable, especially when you consider that he is the youngest draft-eligible player in this class.
Pokusevski has the height (6-foot-11 barefoot), length (7-foot-3 wingspan) and standing reach (9-foot-1) of a center, but he grew up with the ball in his hands. He is at his best handling, creating and shooting from the perimeter thanks to his advanced skill-level and feel for the game. He is highly instinctive defensively, constantly making plays on that end. He is painfully thin, last weighing under 200 pounds in the summer of 2018, but he has a solid base and appears to be filling out his frame.
Catch Pokusevski on the wrong night and he'll be avoiding contact, hanging his head at the first sign of adversity and often appearing to be just going through the motions. He seems to be improving his consistency in those areas, though, and he possesses the type of talent and versatility you simply can't find in a player his size, making him someone NBA executives will continue to follow closely.
The fact that his team, Euroleague powerhouse Olympiacos, was relegated to the second division this summer might actually be working in the young prospect's favor. Unfortunately, that also means his team's box scores are only available in Greek and game film is hard to come by, which is part of the reason high-level decision makers have elected to make the trip to Greece to watch him with their own eyes.
Pelton: Trevelin Queen.
Having averaged 15.2 minutes per game off the bench for New Mexico State as a JC transfer who turned 22 during the season, Queen is certainly a deep sleeper. But if teams are looking for the next Matisse Thybulle, they'd do well to pay Las Cruces a visit. Queen averaged 2.6 steals and 2.0 blocks per 40 minutes last year, not quite on the level of Thybulle's dominant senior campaign (4.5 and 2.9, respectively) but similar to what Thybulle did in a man-to-man defense as a sophomore (2.8 steals and 0.9 blocks per 40 minutes).
Queen also showed scoring potential, averaging 20.4 points per 40 minutes. He should have a chance to do more offensively after scoring a combined 41 points in the Western Athletic Conference championship game and the Aggies' one-point loss to Final Four-bound Auburn in the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
Schmitz: Karim Mane.
If Mane were playing college basketball this year, I think he would end up with legitimate looks in the top 10, given his combination of tremendous tools, athletic gifts, defensive toughness and a rapidly blossoming offensive game.
Already 19, Mane, who is currently playing for Vanier College in Montreal, likely will have quite a few NBA eyes on him at the National Prep Showcase later this month. He needs to become a more consistent shooter and improve his decision-making, but he has a strong foundation. After Mane, I'm most intrigued by Boise State wing Derrick Alston, Texas Tech guard Jahmi'us Ramsey and Southern California wing Onyeka Okongwu.