Ranking NBA rookies by future star potential

Who are the best long-term prospects from this rookie class? Which players have risen the most since the 2018 NBA draft?

With about a month left in the 2018-19 regular season, ESPN analysts Kevin Pelton and Mike Schmitz check in on this talented group, ranking Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Deandre Ayton, Jaren Jackson Jr. and their top-10 rookies by star potential.

Note: Find each writer's top-10 rankings at the bottom of this post.

More: Ranking NBA sophomores by future star potential

Luka a clear No. 1?

Kevin Pelton: My expectations for Luka Doncic, the top-ranked player in the history of my statistical draft projections, were high. Yet he has managed to exceed them as a rookie. The most legitimate concern about Doncic as a superstar prospect was whether he could create his own shot against the bigger, more athletic defenders he would face in the NBA. Yeah, we can consider that question answered.

So far this season, Doncic is posting the fourth-highest usage rate by a rookie who has played at least 1,000 minutes since the ABA-NBA merger:

It's not just Doncic shouldering a big load that's impressive; his former teammate Dennis Smith Jr. did the same last season. But unlike Smith, Doncic has remained efficient in that role, posting the second-highest true shooting percentage (TS%) of this high-usage rookie group -- still true when adjusted for league average (TS%+). Add this key fact: Smith was the only other player in this group younger than 21 during his rookie season.

Given Doncic is more than just a scorer -- he's also a 6-foot-8 point forward -- I think he has the highest potential of not just any rookie but any player in the league younger than MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Mike, is there any doubt in your mind that Doncic belongs No. 1?

Mike Schmitz: Nope, he has all the attributes of a future MVP candidate so long as he commits himself to working on his body. We were quite bullish on Doncic coming into the draft, given his talent, experience and EuroLeague success, but he has exceeded even our expectations, especially with regards to creating high percentage offense against some of the NBA's elite defenses. He ranks third in the NBA in late-clock scoring efficiency (less than 4 seconds, 150 possession minimum) behind only James Harden and Blake Griffin.

Doncic has the instincts and competitiveness to survive defensively, and offensively his combination of off-the-dribble shooting, ballhandling, timing, sheer size and basketball intellect is perfectly suited for today's game. What makes Doncic so intriguing, to me, is the fact that we haven't even consistently seen perhaps his best attribute -- his passing. He and a healthy Kristaps Porzingis should be able to pick-and-pop teams to death, and as Dallas continues to add talent around him, Doncic could very well average double-digit assists in his career sooner than later.

Simply put, Doncic is in a class of his own among this group.

Top contenders

Schmitz: The consensus likely breaks down at No. 2. Kevin, who do you think has the second-brightest future?

Pelton: Yeah, I think you can make a strong case for at least three different players in this spot. I'm going with Jaren Jackson Jr., another rookie who has exceeded my expectations in terms of making an immediate impact. I figured Jackson would probably come off the bench, given he's the league's second-youngest player. Instead, he has started virtually all season and more than held his own.

I think Jackson's versatility separates him from the other big men drafted in the high lottery. Because Jackson can stretch the floor, play in the post, protect the rim and defend the pick-and-roll, the Grizzlies have the luxury of using him at either power forward or center depending how they build their roster around him.

Do you have one of the other contenders ahead of Jackson?

Schmitz: Jackson's immediate impact has been a pleasant surprise for me also. I seriously considered the 19-year-old at No. 2 because of his modern fit and age, but opted to go with top pick Deandre Ayton, with Jackson coming in at No. 3. Jackson's shooting and defensive versatility are clearly intriguing, and I'm high on him long term, but I do wonder a little about his spotty passing (65 assists to 98 turnovers this season -- also a theme prior to the NBA) and foul-prone nature. Playing him more at center down the line should ease some of those concerns.

As for Ayton, his production speaks for itself, and he's actually starting to come around on the defensive end of the floor after a rough start to the season. He'll never be Rudy Gobert as a rim protector, but I do think he'll become a switch asset on the perimeter, and the fact that he showed potential chasing around small-ball centers like Giannis and LeBron James should instill some level of optimism among his most outspoken skeptics. His defensive motor is trending in the right direction, as are his rotations.

Offensively, Ayton is shooting 77.39 percent in the restricted area, according to Second Spectrum data, despite a lack of consistency at point guard for most of the season. He's clearly a threat as a roller, given his mobility and finesse, and I love that he can really facilitate out of a variety of different actions. The fact that Ayton has been so productive without capitalizing on his shooting potential or getting to the free throw line all that often speaks to his tremendous touch.

What do you think?

Pelton: I have Ayton fourth, down a spot from when I did my version of our top 25 under-25 rankings last month. Since then, Trae Young has continued to dominate offensively, so I'm moving him up to third.

I think it's a mistake to look at Young's performance over the past five weeks (30 percent usage, .608 true shooting, 9.8 assists per 36 minutes since Jan. 26) as an indication of the starting point in his development. The first three months, when Young struggled to score efficiently, are also predictive of his future. Additionally, Young continues to be ineffective at the defensive end of the court, where his minus-4.7 defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) is worst in the NBA.

Those defensive limitations explain why I still have Young behind Jackson, who can become a more complete player. But given the relative replaceability of point guards and centers, I think Young's offensive skills project as more valuable than Ayton's at this point. After all, as I explored before the draft, point guards tend to develop later in their careers than other players. That makes what Young has done as a rookie all the more impressive.

Do you have him fourth, Mike?

Schmitz: I actually have Young ranked sixth, behind Marvin Bagley III and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Young has already well-surpassed my pre-draft expectations. The game comes so easily to him, and when his 30-foot pullups are falling, he's almost impossible to guard, given his ball-on-a-string handle, incredible live-dribble passing, finesse around the rim and ability to draw fouls despite his size. But while he's a dangerous offensive player, I do still worry about Young's streaky nature as well as the fact that he's a defensive liability at this stage, without much physical upside to grow into on that end of the floor.

I thought the Miami Heat somewhat laid the blueprint for how to slow Young on Monday, sending aggressive blitzes his way and making him score and facilitate over length, which led to a 4-for-11, 8-turnover outing. Derrick White also did a number on Young on Wednesday, forcing Young to finish through size and physicality. The Spurs regularly used White as a screener to get DeMar DeRozan isolated on Young, a strategy more teams are likely to explore. The fact that opposing coaches already have to game-plan for the ultra-skilled guard does speak to Young's talent level, as he's a lethal shot creator, but I do think you have to take his production with somewhat of a grain of salt given Atlanta's rapid pace and his ultimate green light.

I'm also interested to see how Young handles sharing volume with two potential top-10 picks next season. But he made the Hawks fun again, and there's no question that Young has silenced a lot of doubters in the process. He made me eat my words with his play several times up until this point, and I know I'm certainly at risk for more of that in the future.

Ranking the top 10

Schmitz: Ahead of Young, I love Bagley's offensive aggression and ability to play in transition as a lane-filler, rim runner or ball handler. He doesn't need much offense run for him in order to produce, and I do think he's going to become a proficient NBA 3-point shooter in time, which will allow him to unlock his unique ballhandling and wing-like fluidity in the half court. Bagley certainly has to become a better passer and more consistent defender, but I think he'll be capable in switch situations while continuing to improve his ability to protect the rim when at the small-ball center spot, something we've seen in only 8 percent of his total minutes, according to Cleaning The Glass. He's a big reason for the level of optimism in Sacramento right now.

I've long been a supporter of Gilgeous-Alexander as the best long-term point guard prospect in the 2018 draft, and I'll remain on that island for the time being. While not clearly as dynamic as Young, I love the fact that Gilgeous-Alexander should be able to defend up to three positions in time while making every pick-and-roll read, striding it out into finesse finishes and keeping defenses honest from 3-point range. He lacks a degree of confidence and aggression offensively -- and he clearly hit a wall during the middle of the season -- but Gilgeous-Alexander's winning impact shouldn't be understated on what looks like a Clippers playoff team. Gilgeous-Alexander has the approach to the game -- along with the physical upside -- that could make him one of the league's best two-way point guards down the line. He needs to continue shooting it better from 3 and rely less on inside-the-arc jumpers, but I'm keeping my stock in Gilgeous-Alexander for the moment.

KP, where does Bagley rank for you? I know I'm an outlier with SGA. Did he crack your top 10?

Pelton: We're not as far off as you might think, as I have Bagley fifth and Gilgeous-Alexander sixth. I'm still concerned about whether Bagley can become even an average defender given his own poor defensive RPM (minus-1.5, 91st among 94 listed power forwards) but I think his combination of skills and size will eventually translate into high-caliber offense. And you're right that Gilgeous-Alexander is ahead of the point guard development curve, which bodes well for his long-term future.

Next I have Mikal Bridges, who has been the kind of instant contributor in a 3-and-D role I expected -- just on a team with much bigger needs than that right now. In eighth, ahead of two centers drafted in the lottery, I have Mitchell Robinson. Robinson's EYBL stats suggested he would be a prodigious shot-blocker and high-percentage finisher, and Robinson hasn't disappointed. While he still has a lot of work to harness his skills, I'd rather have a prospect do too much than produce less efficiently, like Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter despite their superior pedigree.

With apologies to Miles Bridges, my list is rounded out by a pair of shooting guards who have shown NBA 3-point range. We knew Landry Shamet could shoot it, but he has shown a more rounded game than expected, allowing him to move into the Clippers' starting five alongside Gilgeous-Alexander after being acquired midseason in the Tobias Harris trade. Meanwhile, Kevin Huerter's floor spacing has helped open things up for Young in Atlanta, which appears to have found its backcourt of the future.

Schmitz: Robinson was on the bubble for me, missing the cut despite the fact that he's a monster defender and elite vertical spacer. Shamet is also a great call as he has been tremendous value relative to his draft slot.

With that said, I'm rolling with Carter (7), Collin Sexton (8), Bamba (9), and Huerter (10) to round out my top 10.

While he had some highs and lows in 44 games prior to injury, I still think Carter will develop into an Al Horford-type in time with his defensive versatility, rebounding, offensive feel and inside-outside game. As for Sexton, De'Aaron Fox's Year 2 improvement reminded me to be patient with speedy rookie point guards who aren't yet elite shooters or playmakers. He needs to improve defensively, continue reading the game at a higher level and rely less on midrange pullups, but Sexton is a big-time worker who has scored 20 points or more six times since the beginning of February while shooting better than 40 percent from 3-point territory during that stretch.

With Bamba, we knew he was more of a long-term prospect coming into the season, and I'm not ready to give up on a 20-year-old prospect with a 7-foot-10 wingspan and 3-point shooting potential despite his up-and-down rookie campaign. My 10th spot came down to a battle of Kevins, eventually favoring Huerter over Kevin Knox. While I do think the 19-year-old Knox will rebound from a tough rookie campaign, I'm with you on Huerter, as his combination of positional size, shooting and feel at 20 gives him excellent long-term potential on an exciting young Hawks team.