No. 1 overall draft pick Deandre Ayton has been slightly overshadowed so far by other members of the 2018 draft class, including Luka Doncic and Jaren Jackson Jr.
But what kind of potential is the rookie center displaying on the 5-24 Suns, and why is it important to be patient with Phoenix's crown jewel?
The production and situation
Ayton is quietly averaging an impressive 15.5 points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 assists in 30.4 minutes per game with a 60.5 true shooting percentage. No other under-21 player has ever reached those marks, according to our extensive database, and the only under-22 player to do so was Karl-Anthony Towns.
Ayton's tremendous production speaks to his natural ability -- an outstanding combination of size, agility and touch that made him the top pick in June's draft. His glimpses are eye-opening, even if his lows can be baffling. Before diving into his game, it's imperative to provide some context into Ayton's development path to reach this point.
Consider this:
• Ayton came somewhat late to the game, first really surfacing in the States at the 2013 Pangos All-American Camp as a 14-year-old. At Phoenix's Hillcrest Prep, becoming a defensive anchor wasn't a priority and he had total freedom to roam.
• While a standout on the Nike EYBL circuit, Ayton participated in minimal FIBA competition. He had few opportunities to learn on the fly in meaningful games like fellow bigs Wendell Carter Jr. or Jackson had. Simply put, Ayton -- already missing key development years early on -- wasn't always held accountable or tested on the floor before arriving in Tucson.
• Arizona head coach Sean Miller is one of the most prepared and intense coaches in America, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but Ayton played virtually the entire year at power forward. He wasn't known for living in the gym either. He got by on natural ability to post monster numbers.
So comparing Ayton to Doncic right now makes little sense, as Doncic is the most experienced international prospect we've seen. It's also important to be mindful of how Ayton's current situation in Phoenix may accentuate some of his shortcomings. An organization in flux with youth across the board and minimal point guard play isn't the ideal way to shine immediately.
The Suns' director of player development, Cody Toppert, told ESPN that Phoenix keeps a checklist of areas where Ayton can improve both in the interim and long term to make sure that his development remains on track.
Here are some of the areas where he has room for growth.
Defense
Ayton's defensive motor was one of his biggest question marks heading into the draft, and his fluctuating effort has certainly showed up during his rookie campaign.
"I've found that it's a different type of motor in the NBA," Ayton told ESPN. "You have to bring it every game. Most matchups are going at me. You're just on your heels every day. Everybody's watching me. Even when I think they're not, they are. ... I love it, I love the challenge."
Here are his three main defensive priorities.
1. Pick-and-roll nuance
Ayton has little experience as a drop man on screens. He's proved adept at switching, but the Suns generally switch only 1-4 defensively. Phoenix is working with Ayton on the nuances of pick-and-roll defense, emphasizing form, speed and then contact in breakdown drills. So first Ayton needs to grasp the concepts of footwork and technique, then they'll put it to game speed, then they'll add contact with a decision-making component.
Ayton tends to either give the guard an open lane to the rim or overcommit to the ball, resulting in an open lob. The goal for the Suns is to bait opponents into contested midrange shots first and foremost. To do that, there's an element of "cat-and-mouse," as Toppert describes it. Because Ayton was able to get by on sheer athleticism at a young age, he doesn't have the same tricks of players such as Nikola Jokic and Marc Gasol.
This all starts with footwork. When a guard comes off a ball screen going to his left, it's important for Ayton to be high enough to touch the screener while also having his right foot forward, which allows him to both keep the ball in front yet stay behind the screener in case of a lob. From there it's about reading the ball handler and knowing when he's going to attack or when he's going to throw a lob, all while maintaining active hands.
Ayton doesn't take great angles when trying to contain the ball in pick-and-roll. Here he needs to be square to the ball with his right foot up, allowing him to contain and drop, keeping the ball in front while making sure Bam Adebayo doesn't get behind him. Ayton opens up completely, gives Goran Dragic a lane to the rim and gets dunked on:
Similar situation here, where Ayton allows Jordan Bell to get behind him for the lob:
Oftentimes he's completely upright, showing little effort to get out and contain the ball:
Even when he is in the right position, he has a tendency to leave the ball before the guard defender can get back in front. There are also times when Ayton decides to fully commit to the ball, which opens up an easy lob to the roller.
He's still learning how to get square, play center field and bluff-and-recover while guarding both the ball-handler and the roller.
There's no question Ayton has the tools to figure this out. So long as he continues studying his own game film while picking up the tendencies of his opponents, he should absolutely be able to become an asset as a ball-screen defender in time.
"[Head coach Igor Kokoskov] talks about it all the time too with Rudy (Gobert) -- it's not an overnight process," Toppert said. "With Rudy it took about three years to figure out, on the defensive side of the ball, hand activity. The importance of hand activity and how hand activity can often make up for guys being out of position for guys who have great length."
2. Becoming a defensive anchor
The Suns have made it clear that they're challenging Ayton to turn himself into an elite rim protector in the NBA.
"[Kokoskov] really wants me to stay around to protect the rim," Ayton said. "Last year in college I wasn't really around the rim as much. This year I am."
While Ayton is gifted with a 7-5 wingspan, powerful frame, agility and quick-leaping ability, opponents are shooting 71 percent at the rim when Ayton is the closest defender (28th out of 29 players who have defended 100 shots), per Second Spectrum.
Sometimes he can completely lose sight of the ball:
He can improve his positioning and understanding of when to hang around the rim. Here he should be right inside the charge circle ready to rotate, with Nikola Vucevic in the dunker spot:
He doesn't always jump to the ball, limiting shot-blocking opportunities.
And he can have perfect position but opt not to make a play on the ball:
So what are the keys to becoming a good rim protector for Ayton?
"Knowing the floor and knowing where you are," Ayton said. "Once I really start to get the hang of guy's personnel in the league and knowing what people's bread and butter is, I'll start to read them even more and know that I'll always have to protect the rim no matter where I'm at on the court."
For Toppert, it starts with Ayton's pick-and-roll footwork, as that will allow him to be in much better position to challenge shots at the rim on initial drives, in turn putting him in better spots to rotate from the weak side on second-side drives. Ayton has proven capable in drop situations when he can funnel the ball to the rim with sound technique:
A high motor can often cover up technical errors, but with Ayton's hot-and-cold approach along with his raw fundamentals, it's been difficult to fully gauge where his instincts stand. So while things haven't looked promising early in his career, we may not know the caliber of shot-blocker Ayton can become until he gains more experience with in-game reps.
3. Finding a body
Rebounding was Ayton's most ready-made skill, and it's certainly translated from a statistical standpoint. With that said, Ayton is still figuring out when and how to find a body on the glass,
"He's going to fall backwards into eight defensive rebounds a night," Toppert said. "But can he keep his guy off the glass, and can he not only neutralize his guy, but get those out-of-area rebounds after neutralizing his guy? I think there's no reason why he can't be a 15-rebound-per-game guy and do a great job on both sides of the ball."
While developing into a savvy pick-and-roll drop defender or elite rim protector is likely to take years, tightening up his box-out awareness is one defensive area Ayton can own in the short term.
Offense
Part of what made Ayton so intriguing heading into the draft was the fact that he could do a little of everything offensively, but he and his team are still learning where he's most effective on the court.
Here are three areas that will help Ayton offensively:
1. Becoming an elite roller
The first step in Ayton unlocking his offensive potential lies in the details, particularly as a roller. Toppert emphasized Ayton's fundamentals as a screener and coming out of dribble-handoffs as a short-term priority. He touched on Ayton's screening angles and feel for when to hold screens, when to roll out of screens and also when to re-screen if the defender goes under. While it may seem small, these are all moves that bigs pick up through experience,
"All those things force two defenders to commit to the ball, which ultimately open up him," Toppert said. "It's not just to get our ball handler downhill, but again forcing two guys to commit to the ball is going to open up opportunities for him to get deep catches."
This is a perfect clip of Ayton's ideal roll game. He takes a better angle and remains patient with his timing:
Ayton with the quick spin and lefty dunk. pic.twitter.com/bafNPsv2CS
- Suns Film Room (@SunsFilm) December 14, 2018
Ayton is close to automatic when he catches deep, as he ranks fifth among players with over 150 shots at the rim in efficiency, converting 68.6 percent of his attempts in the half court. He's extremely nimble, with soft touch and potential as a vertical spacer once he gets a runway.
Now it's about employing the proper footwork and feel to set up those rolls. Of course, adept point guard play also helps, and becoming a more versatile dribble-handoff threat will also expand his offensive game, as he's equipped with the passing and agility to be much more dynamic in those situations.
2. Assertiveness
Maybe Ayton's most important offensive obstacle is learning when to attack, when to shoot jumpers and when to defer. Despite his frame, Ayton is shooting only 2.3 free throws per game -- a number Toppert thinks should be up to six. Too often Ayton floats through games, not knowing when to dive hard, when to pop to midrange, when to dribble into a handoff or when to attack a slower-footed big off the bounce.
Even when he does dive hard with space to operate, he'll freeze up at the sight of help and turn the ball over rather than drawing contact and going up strong:
"Sometimes I'm a little too passive, but I just think it's the right play when I see somebody's open," Ayton said. "That's how I am."
While his passing has certainly been a pleasant surprise, it's playmaking by default at times, as he doesn't feel comfortable going at his man in the block or out of the mid-post. Even around the rim he'll hesitate and panic-fake before kicking the ball out. Toppert said Ayton is still adjusting to the shorter shot clock in the NBA, as far too often the Suns will run multiple actions to get him a post touch and he'll kick back out to repost with nowhere near enough time on the clock.
"It's like, 'No, man, go to work. We want you to go to work. Your teammates want you to go to work,"' Toppert said. "Then it's understanding how to be patient in the post."
3. Lift under jumpers
Once Ayton is able to impose his will physically, he can step out and punish defenders for giving him space. For him to knock down open shots, though, he'll have to explore different ways to get more arc under the ball, as he shoots a line drive to the rim.
Part of what made Ayton so interesting out of Arizona was his potential as a stretch big, which he's yet to show with consistency in the NBA, struggling in midrange and attempting only two 3s (both misses).
"What I do is I shoot in rhythm, I shoot in the offense," Ayton said. "That's how I am. The 3 ball is not there yet because I'm still looking for a decent rhythm with my team to where they know when I pick-and-pop or when I roll."
But Ayton needs to start showing some proficiency in his midrange spots before he can extend his range to 3, and that likely isn't going to happen until he's able to get some lift under his shot.
Looking forward
Given Ayton's development path, to expect much different than what we've seen thus far would have been unrealistic. He needs time to get experience, polish up his fundamentals and learn what it takes to be a star in the NBA.
Will Ayton put in the necessary work to get there and do the Suns have the organizational infrastructure to get the best out of him? Those are questions we'll keep a close eye on as the 2018 No. 1 pick continues to progress through what's been an up-and-down rookie season.
"To me, there's no reason why he isn't a guy who can be a perennial All-Star and a guy who can be in discussion as one of the top defensive players in the league," Toppert said. "Now is it going to take a lot of hard work? Absolutely. But he has the mental capacity without question. He has the personality and he also has the physical tools, so it's our responsibility to help him get there."