Ranking Tatum, Mitchell and NBA sophomores by future potential

Who are the best long-term prospects from the 2017 NBA draft?

This season's NBA sophomores find themselves at an interesting stage of their development. The most successful of last season's rookies, including Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum, have struggled at times to live up to high expectations in Year 2. Meanwhile, other high picks who started slowly have found their footing now -- most notably De'Aaron Fox.

Let's check in on their development and rank the 2017 draft picks with the most potential going forward.

Who's the best prospect from 2017: Mitchell or Tatum?

Schmitz: At the moment, this is a two-player race between Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum. It's hard to go wrong with either.

Each has tremendous scoring instincts and positional size/length, but I prefer Mitchell's pick-and-roll shot generation from the lead-guard spot to Tatum's smooth scoring attack and polished footwork on the wing. Because Mitchell can get to his pull-up at will and score inside the arc with finesse or force, he holds star potential with the ability to take over fourth quarters of playoff games like few others in his draft class.

Although his efficiency has taken a hit -- on shooting 29.8 percent from 3 and 49.5 percent at the rim -- Mitchell still ranks in the 87th percentile on pull-up jumpers, ahead of shot-makers such as Damian Lillard, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. His decreased efficiency and subpar defense have been a partial byproduct of the heavy load he's shouldering, as he has the 13th-highest usage rate in the NBA.

Mitchell is also one of only 10 NBA players to use more than 200 pick-and-roll possessions, ranking fourth in efficiency behind only Kemba Walker, Lillard and DeMar DeRozan. For Mitchell optimists, the hope is that as the Jazz continue to surround him with more talent and shooting throughout his career, he can develop into more of a facilitator as a lead guard. Mitchell's three-level scoring, aggressive mentality, playmaking potential and tools to develop into a plus defender make him No. 1 on my list.

Tatum is clearly no slouch in his own right, as his ability to serve as both a secondary spot-up option and a go-to scorer makes him intriguing in a variety of lineups, especially when you consider he's about 18 months younger than Mitchell. Tatum has reverted back to some of his pre-NBA habits this season, settling for too many pull-up 2s, but the fact that his 3-point percentage has remained steady on increased volume is the larger development.

It's not easy to find wings with Tatum's two-way versatility and scoring instincts, and with his shooting stroke and polished midpost scoring package, Tatum looks the part of a future 25 PPG scorer for years to come.

Pelton: After going with Mitchell over Tatum in May (when we also included Ben Simmons, likewise a rookie but drafted in 2016), I'm flipping my vote this time around.

While neither Mitchell nor Tatum has been as efficient in Year 2, as you note, in Tatum's case that's meant dropping merely to around league average in terms of true shooting percentage (.558). Since Mitchell started below average, his drop to .519 this season has left him in volume scoring territory. Granted, you're right that Mitchell is playing the much larger role. But we saw Tatum handle a somewhat larger role in the playoffs, when his usage rate shot up to 23 percent, while remaining hyperefficient.

Down the road, Mitchell developing as a 3-point shooter should help. The pull-up 3, so important to pick-and-roll ball handlers, has yet to come around. (Mitchell is making 28 percent of pull-up 3s, per NBA Advanced Stats, down slightly from the 29 percent he shot as a 3.) But given Tatum's age, I expect him to close the gap in terms of volume more than Mitchell does in terms of efficiency.

Which point guard would you rather have: Lonzo or Fox?

Schmitz: The next tier for me revisits a heated 2017 debate between point guards De'Aaron Fox and Lonzo Ball. As was the case in June 2017, choosing between these two point guards is more a matter of preference. Ball is the catch-all guard who defends multiple positions, attacks the glass and keeps the ball humming on offense while cashing in on occasional spot 3s. While he's maybe more of a piece than a future star, Ball's beauty is in the details, and he impacts winning in a big way.

Fox, on the other hand, is the explosive shot creator who shreds opposing defenses with his combination of speed and fearlessness despite his wiry frame. I put Ball over Fox prior to the 2017 draft and did the same during last year's rankings. But given his progress as a perimeter shooter and floor general, I now give Fox the edge as he's simply too dynamic a shot creator with considerable upside at 20 years old.

Now, we'll see whether or not Fox can sustain his 38.2 3-point percentage throughout the season, but the fact that he's making pull-ups when defenders go under screens (11-22) has unlocked the rest of his game. Fox is also getting to the free throw line at a much higher rate and becoming more comfortable around the rim and in the paint. While I remain a Ball believer and admire his elite basketball instincts, Fox is a much tougher offensive cover with the quickness and instincts to become a plus defender as his frame fills out.

Fox's progress is an excellent reminder not to give up on one-and-done prospects, especially guards, after mediocre rookie seasons. I omitted Fox from our top-10 rankings last year despite being quite bullish on his NBA potential during the predraft process. With an improved jumper and a much cleaner overall court sense, Fox has revitalized the Kings and is deserving of a top-three spot here. He has the potential to challenge Mitchell and Tatum eventually should he continue improving.

Pelton: I'm not ready to rank Fox that high given we're still talking about 20-plus games and 60-some 3-point attempts. His rookie season is the much larger sample and should make up more of his future prediction even if we factor this season more heavily. For example, my SCHOENE projection system weights the most recent season 60 percent more than the previous one. But Fox played 175 percent more minutes as a rookie than he has so far this season.

For the moment, then, I'm still taking both Ball, as well as Lauri Markkanen -- who was also effective as a rookie before being sidelined to start this season by an elbow sprain -- ahead of Fox. Of course, if Fox does continue to play at this level, he'll move further up the list.

Schmitz: Markkanen rounds out my top five as well. Despite the injury, he remains an excellent long-term prospect given his size, agility and shooting versatility. He figures to thrive next to a defensive-minded center like Wendell Carter Jr.

Who rounds out the top 10?

Schmitz:

6. Kyle Kuzma
7. Markelle Fultz
8. Jarrett Allen
9. John Collins
10. OG Anunoby

After I slotted him at No. 10 during last season's impressive rookie campaign, Kuzma gets a bump up to sixth this time around. His 3-point percentage is down, his rebounding hasn't improved and he still isn't one for generating steals and blocks on the defensive end ... so why the improved ranking? Although he struggled early on in the season, Kuzma has made a jump on the defensive end of the floor over the past five games or so, particularly against wings.

Kuzma spent the summer working on his body, and it's starting to pay dividends. The Lakers may have cracked the code to maximizing Kuzma's defensive potential by throwing him on wings, and if he indeed can turn himself into a plus defender there, his long-term value certainly increases given his offensive skill set. He also appears to be unlocking more of the passing potential he showed at Utah, with nine games totaling three assists or more already.

Maybe the most debatable choice here is Fultz, whom I slotted at fourth on this list last May. I had extreme optimism that Fultz was poised for a turnaround sophomore season in Philly, but the start to his NBA career has been tumultuous to say the least. That said, the latest medical diagnosis of thoracic outlet syndrome could be a step in the right direction to getting to the root of Fultz's shooting issues.

Even if it takes Fultz until next season to return to full health and regain confidence in his jumper, the 20-year-old has too much natural talent (when right) to omit him here, especially since we're talking about future potential. While several players on this list project as longtime NBA starters, few have the star potential that Fultz showed prior to the NBA. His value will likely never be lower, and if I were running a young NBA team, believed in my medical staff and needed a lead guard of the future, I'd look long and hard at aggressively pursuing him. Despite an unprecedented start to his NBA career, it's too soon to give up on Fultz, who doesn't turn 21 until next May.

Allen is here thanks to his agility, length, soft hands, touch and potential as a rim protector, ranking 37th overall in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus. Though the value of centers is certainly trending in the wrong direction, Allen's ability to change shots around the rim and space the floor vertically makes him valuable in today's game at the ripe age of 20. The Nets rookie has also shown flashes as a passer and corner-3 shooter, which would go a long way toward modernizing his offensive game.

Collins' run-and-jump athleticism and seemingly effortless production at age 21 earn him a spot at No. 9. While still improving defensively, he looks like he'll be able to step out and make 3s down the road. His offensive feel for the game is also getting better, with more assists than turnovers to his name. Playing alongside a passer like Trae Young should only help Collins' offensive attack long term.

Anunoby hasn't quite made the statistical jump you'd hope (his 3-point accuracy has dropped to 31.5 percent), but his monster physical profile, defensive versatility, shooting potential and age are still enough to warrant a spot in the top 10. He figures to learn from a fellow silent assassin like Kawhi Leonard and should remain a major cog in what could be a deep Raptors playoff run.

The toughest omission for me was Jonathan Isaac, the late-blooming 7-footer who can guard four positions in a pinch and make a standstill 3. Should Isaac continue to stay healthy, develop physically and gain more confidence in his jumper, he'll likely work his way onto this list soon.

Pelton:

6. John Collins
7. OG Anunoby
8. Josh Hart
9. Kyle Kuzma
10. Monte Morris

Overall, we agree on eight of the 10 players on our lists. I have Collins ahead of the centers who don't crack my top 10 (Allen and Miami's Bam Adebayo) because of his versatility to defend power forwards and potentially stretch the floor as a 3-point shooter (16-of-47 as a rookie, though just 2-of-17 this season).

I'm taking Hart over Kuzma because while the latter has played more minutes -- and has created mismatches with his size as a starter -- Hart is both the more efficient scorer and the better defender, making him an ideal role player.

Lastly, I rounded out my list with Morris, who was the 51st overall pick and played just one NBA game as a rookie on a two-way contract. Thrust into the backup point guard role in Denver by Isaiah Thomas' injury, Morris has excelled at both ends, posting an incredible (though not totally surprising) 7-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio while making 40 percent of his 3s. Though he lacks the upside of the other point guards drafted in the lottery (Fultz and Dennis Smith Jr.), he'll be a useful contributor for years -- and it's not yet clear those younger players will get there.

Fultz is the hardest cut for me. I think we'll know a lot more about his long-term potential when he returns from rehabbing. If Fultz can rediscover his shooting form, there's no doubt he's a top-10 prospect. If not, though, as I explored in a recent piece, it may be difficult for Fultz to be a valuable NBA player.