When I first posted statistical projections for the 2018 NBA draft back in March, I included only those for college prospects, which left a Luka Doncic-sized hole at the top of the rankings.
Now that we're including everyone, Doncic is naturally No. 1, and his 5.8 projected wins above replacement player (WARP) -- what we'd expect him to average over his first five seasons, discounting more distant ones to reward immediate returns -- are in fact the most for any of the 800-plus players I've projected dating back to 2003. Doncic tops Anthony Davis (5.5) for that honor, though it's worth noting that I don't have a projection for LeBron James out of St. Vincent-St. Mary High School or Dwight Howard the following year.
Doncic's ascension to the top isn't the only change since March. Like our ESPN Analytics projections, I've incorporated performance in the Nike EYBL AAU league for players who saw action there in either 2015 or 2016 thanks to Neil Johnson of ESPN Stats & Information. This has a significant impact for freshmen who often played nearly as many minutes in the EYBL as in the NCAA -- or many more, in the case of Michael Porter Jr., who missed most of his lone season at Missouri due to injury.
Additionally, as explained in a full piece looking at the value of centers in the modern NBA, I've made an adjustment to the projections based on player positions that causes big men to fall in the rankings and wings, in particular, to climb. As a result, my projections now differ more from the consensus at the top of the draft, which will likely be dominated by big men.
You can read more on the projections and see how they've worked in the past here, but now let's get to the rankings based on consensus projections that incorporate both statistical performance and where the player rates in the current top 100 from Insider Jonathan Givony.