With conference tournaments in full swing and the NCAA tournament a week away, it's time to take a first look at my WARP projections for the college prospects who could be in this year's NBA draft.
As always, my projections are built on three factors:
The player's projected performance as a rookie, based on translated NCAA stats over the past three seasons, adjusted for strength of schedule and a factor regressing outlier performance to the mean;
The player's age;
Where the player ranks in the latest top 100 rankings from my Insider colleagues Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz.
(For more on how the projections work and a look back at past projections, see here.)
Even without factoring in international prospects, most notably Luka Doncic and his historic production in EuroLeague, this looks like a strong crop at the top. There's an unusual amount of agreement between my stats-only projections (factoring in translated production and age) and this year's top 100. Still, there are some surprising names in my top 30 and the order isn't quite the same as our top 100, starting at the very top.
1. Jaren Jackson Jr.
Michigan State
PF/C
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.7 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 242
While Jackson isn't at the top of either my stats-only projections or the top 100 rankings, the combination of strong finishes in both categories gives him a narrow edge as the top prospect overall. Jackson has been efficient both inside (61 percent on 2-pointers) and outside (nearly 40 percent on 3-pointers) the arc and has the NCAA's second-best block percentage, according to Sports-Reference.com. Add in Jackson's youth -- he's more than a year younger than Deandre Ayton -- and he looks like an excellent NBA prospect.
2. Deandre Ayton
Arizona
C
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 3.7 WARP | Height: 7-1 | Weight: 250
As Givony and Schmitz detailed last month, Ayton's poor steal rate and relatively average block percentage limit his statistical projection. Yet Ayton has surged from 11th in the stats-only projections back then to fifth now because of his dominance as a scorer and rebounder since. Those skills give Ayton a high floor. His development as a defender will determine Ayton's upside.
3. Mohamed Bamba
Texas
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.6 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 225
Bamba blocks shots nearly as well as Jackson and rebounds nearly as well as Ayton. As compared to them, Bamba's offensive projection is weaker because of his lower usage rate and average-ish translated efficiency. He's also the oldest of the group, turning 20 before the draft.
4. Trae Young
Oklahoma
PG
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.8 WARP | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Young's statistical projection has dropped as he has struggled in conference play. Nonetheless, his stats-only projection is still ahead of Ayton because Young gets credit for creating such a large share of the Sooners' offense. His projected usage rate as a rookie (26.4 percent of his team's plays) would equal the highest in my projection database, a record currently held by Luke Harangody.
5. Marvin Bagley III
Duke
PF/C
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 2.6 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 234
Of the top five players in our draft rankings (which also include Doncic, not listed here), Bagley has the weakest statistical projection. He's particularly limited by his block percentage, which would be below-average for a power forward, let alone a center. Still, Bagley falls into the group of top 10 prospects with top-10 statistical projections that have typically produced the best NBA players.
6. Jontay Porter
Missouri
C
Top 100: No. 36
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 2.5 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 240
Because he has barely played due to injury, Michael Porter Jr. is not ranked in these projections. Instead, it's his younger brother who improbably has the best stats-only projection for any player. Playing primarily off the bench, Jontay Porter has shown a versatile skill set, making better than a 3-pointer per game at a 36 percent clip and handing out 3.6 assists per 40 minutes. What really drives his projection, however, is Porter's age: he won't turn 19 until after opening night of the 2018-19 season. Porter surely isn't the best prospect in the draft, and might not belong in the top 10, but given his combination of versatility and youth he should become a useful NBA contributor.
7. Wendell Carter Jr.
Duke
C
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.4 WARP | Height: 6-10 | Weight: 259
Carter has been just as productive as his more touted frontcourt-mate during their freshman season, posting similar rebound percentages at both ends and blocking shots more than twice as frequently. Carter doesn't create quite as much offense as Bagley but should be an efficient scorer in the NBA.
8. Robert Williams
Texas A&M
PF/C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 2.0 WARP | Height: 6-10 | Weight: 241
For an athletic big man, Williams is an unusually good passer. His projected assist rate is best of the big men in the top 14 of our rankings. (Porter's is slightly better.)
9. Mikal Bridges
Villanova
SF
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.9 WARP | Height: 6-6 | Weight: 210
During Villanova's run to the 2016 NCAA title, I tweeted that I expected then-freshman Bridges to become a first-round prospect the next year. Consider me a year off, as Bridges has finally emerged as a likely lottery pick. His statistical projections have always supported that: Bridges' strong steal rate is a positive indicator, and he has become an accurate shooter from both 2 (65 percent career) and 3 (39 percent).
10. De'Anthony Melton
USC
PG/SG
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 1.8 WARP | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 190
Because he was implicated in the college basketball FBI scandal, Melton hasn't played this season. His performance as a freshman put Melton high in the stats-only projections. His excellent combination of steals and blocks suggests Melton will be a top-tier defender, though sitting out this season means we can't gauge his improvement as a shooter and playmaker.
11. Daniel Gafford
Arkansas
C
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.8 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 234
A high-percentage finisher (he's shooting an incredible 88 percent at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com), Gafford has burst on the scene as a one-and-done prospect. The concern about Gafford is his foul shooting: He has made just 53 percent of his free throws.
12. Miles Bridges
Michigan State
SF/PF
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 1.7 WARP | Height: 6-7 | Weight: 225
The other forward named M. Bridges in this year's class essentially put up a statistical duplicate of his freshman season, which is a bit disappointing in terms of his projection. On the plus side, Bridges improved dramatically from 69 percent to 88 percent at the free throw line. Still, his drop from 55 percent to 53 percent on 2-pointers leaves questions about his efficiency in the NBA.
13. Jacob Evans
Cincinnati
SF
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.5 WARP | Height: 6-6 | Weight: 210
Among the most versatile players in college basketball, the fast-rising Evans is the Bearcats' assist leader and has shot better than 40 percent from 3-point range the past two seasons, a strong skill set for a 6-foot-6 wing. Add in his role on the nation's second-ranked defense and Evans looks like a strong prospect.
14. Shamorie Ponds
St. John's
PG
Top 100: No. 58
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 1.4 WARP | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175
So far, my top 13 line up reasonably well with our rankings. That changes in a hurry starting now. Ponds, who only cracked the top 100 in the most recent update, shot 38 percent on 3s as a freshman before dropping to 27 percent this season. At the same time, he has improved his assist rate from 3.7 to 5.3 per 40 minutes. If Ponds can combine his shooting as a freshman with his playmaking as a sophomore and add an outstanding steal rate (he led the Big East in steals per game the last two seasons), then we'd have something.
15. Markus Howard
Marquette
PG
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 1.3 WARP | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 175
Something of a Trae Young lite, Howard made an incredible 55 percent of his 3s as a freshman while attempting nearly five per game. This season, he has pushed that to 8.2 attempts per game while making a more sustainable 39 percent. Scouts are understandably wary of a 5-11 player without much in the way of playmaking chops, but Howard is an NBA-caliber shooter.
16. John Konchar
IPFW
SG
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.3 WARP | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 207
Playing for Indiana Purdue Fort Wayne, Konchar shot 69 percent on 2s and 52 percent on 3s as a sophomore. He has regressed this season as a junior, making just 39 percent of his 3s, but has compensated by averaging 2.8 steals per 40 minutes. It's unlikely Konchar will try to leap from the Summit League to the NBA this year, but he's on the radar: Givony highlighted him as a sleeper before the season.
17. Lonnie Walker IV
Miami
SG
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 45
Consensus: 1.2 WARP | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 192
From a statistical perspective, Walker's freshman season was nothing special. He rebounded poorly and wasn't particularly efficient, making 49 percent of his 2s and 36 percent of his 3s.
18. Troy Brown
Oregon
SG
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 1.2 WARP | Height: 6-7 | Weight: 215
Brown's size and length are excellent for someone with the ballhandling and playmaking chops to play on the perimeter. To be effective in that role in the NBA, however, Brown will have to improve on his 30 percent 3-point shooting so far as a freshman.
19. Collin Sexton
Alabama
PG
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 59
Consensus: 1.2 WARP | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 190
Sexton has the worst projected defensive rating of any player in the top 30 because his steal rate is relatively low for a point guard and his foul rate quite high. On the plus side, Sexton has managed average efficiency while carrying a huge offensive load in large part because of his ability to consistently get to the foul line.
20. Landry Shamet
Wichita State
PG
Top 100: No. 29
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.2 WARP | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 180
In his second full season of college basketball, Shamet made solid strides, improving his 2-point percentage from 52 percent to 55 percent and his assists per 40 minutes from 4.9 to 6.6. Shamet projects as a poor defender, but he's being drafted primarily on the strength of his offensive skill.
21. Udoka Azubuike
Kansas
C
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.1 WARP | Height: 7-0 | Weight: 280
A throwback center, Azubuike must have one of the largest statistical differences in college basketball history between his 2-point percentage (77 percent) and his free throw percentage (42 percent). Scouts are probably right to wonder whether that 2-point success will translate against more athletic NBA big men.
22. Nick Ward
Michigan State
PF
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 0.9 WARP | Height: 6-8 | Weight: 245
One of the most energetic players in the country, Ward averages 26.5 points and 15.2 rebounds per 40 minutes, as well as 2.9 blocks in that span. Foul trouble (4.9 per 40 minutes) is one reason Ward averages just 19.1 minutes per game. His all-out style also might not translate well to more playing time. In the NBA, Ward's best fit is likely as a spark plug off the bench.
23. Kevin Knox
Kentucky
SF/PF
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 82
Consensus: 0.9 WARP | Height: 6-9 | Weight: 215
The lowest-rated player by the stats projections in our top 10, Knox is a prolific shooter for a 6-9 combo forward (he has made 1.6 3s per game at a 35 percent clip) but doesn't do enough else. He has been a below-average rebounder for a small forward and contributes few assists, steals or blocks. We've seen Kentucky players broaden their games as pros before, and that's the gamble a team will have to take with Knox.
24. Kevin Hervey
Texas Arlington
SF
Top 100: No. 45
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 0.9 WARP | Height: 6-9 | Weight: 230
The Sun Belt Player of the Year as a junior, Hervey is averaging 21.1 points and 8.7 rebounds this season as a senior. For a wing, he's an excellent rebounder and an above-average playmaker. The question is whether Hervey can improve his accuracy from 3-point range, having topped out at 35 percent from the college line this season.
25. Zhaire Smith
Texas Tech
SF
Top 100: No. 33
Stats: No. 35
Consensus: 0.9 WARP | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 195
An unheralded recruit who has helped fuel the Red Raiders' rise to as high as No. 6 in the AP poll, Smith has a fascinating combination of skills. Thanks to his athleticism, he's an outstanding offensive rebounder and shot-blocker for a 6-5 wing. Smith isn't much of a shooter (he has attempted just 30 3-pointers all season), but Chicago Bulls wing David Nwaba offers precedent for an even less-skilled player parlaying athleticism and energy into valuable NBA minutes.
26. Kevin Huerter
Maryland
SG
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 0.8 WARP | Height: 6-7 | Weight: 190
Completing our run on Kevins, Huerter is a 6-7 shooting guard who has made 42 percent of his 3s this season as well as better than 60 percent of his 2s. He's an above-average playmaker for his position, albeit turnover prone. Huerter's poor steal rate is a concern.
27. Ethan Happ
Wisconsin
PF
Top 100: No. 71
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 0.8 WARP | Height: 6-10 | Weight: 235
One of the most unusual prospects in recent memory, Happ is a ground-bound big man who records more steals than blocks. He's also an excellent passer for a post player, but a poor shooter who has made just 55 percent of his free throws. Only LA Clippers rookie Sindarius Thornwell had a better rating in Sports-Reference.com's box plus-minus than Happ in 2016-17, but it's going to take the right situation for Happ to translate those skills in the NBA.
28. Sagaba Konate
West Virginia
C
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 0.8 WARP | Height: 6-8 | Weight: 260
That one player with a better block rate than Jaren Jackson? It's Konate, who has served as the last line of Bob Huggins' pressure defense and blocked nearly one in every six opponent 2-point attempts. Konate is just 6-8 and not particularly skilled on offense -- though he has made 79 percent of his free throws this season -- so he might just be a specialist in the NBA.
29. Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Virginia Tech
PG
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 0.8 WARP | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 210
Overshadowed by fellow Canadian wing (and cousin) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who landed at Kentucky, Alexander-Walker has been more productive as a freshman. He's making 40 percent of his 3-pointers on 4.4 attempts per game and has been an excellent defensive rebounder for a guard. Unfortunately, scouts haven't had much chance to see Alexander-Walker's playmaking chops alongside veteran point guard Justin Robinson.
30. Dedric Lawson
Kansas
SF
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 0.7 WARP | Height: 6-9 | Weight: 230
Lawson has sat out this season after transferring from Memphis, where he averaged 19.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.1 blocks per game as a sophomore. Lawson could stand to develop his 3-point range after shooting 27 percent last season, but his broad skill set should translate well when he takes the court for the Jayhawks.