Most overrated, underrated prospects in the 2017 NBA draft

The draft is Thursday and NBA teams are working on their final lists.

Which top prospects are being overrated and which potential sleepers are being overlooked?

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton compare their big boards and debate.

Most overrated

Chad Ford: We've both released our big boards for the 2017 NBA draft. And, no surprise here, there are some significant differences. While my big board relies totally on the opinions of NBA GMs and scouts, yours is based on a statistical formula that projects the number of wins above replacement player (WARP) for each player during his first five seasons in the NBA.

So let's play a little overrated/underrated before the draft. Who do you think will go too high in the draft, and who will end up being draft steals?

Let's start with overrated. In your opinion, who's the most overrated player in the draft?

Kevin Pelton: It's hard for me to separate the players who are generally considered the second tier of prospects in this year's draft: De'Aaron Fox, Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum (though your tiers place them with five other players in Tier 2).

Individually, I'm not sure any of them will go that much higher than where I rank them. Collectively, however, these players appear to be rated much higher than their statistical production would imply, and that has important implications -- a belief that the top four prospects were relatively equal surely informed the Boston Celtics' decision to trade down (they don't seem to be considering Fox at No. 3).

As we've discussed, the strongest prospects tend to be those in the top 10 of the draft who also rank in the top 10 of my stats-only projections. Here's that group over the last four drafts:

And here are players who went in the top 10 but who weren't in the top 10 in my stats-only projections:

Because there's so much unpredictability with the draft, there are certainly players you'd like to have on the second list and some on the first list who haven't lived up to expectations. Generally speaking, however, I think you'd much rather draft from the first list. Fox, Jackson and Tatum all belong on the second list, and they rank relatively low in terms of stats-only projections. So I don't see them as nearly as valuable collectively as they're being projected.

Ford: I disagree with you on Jackson. I love him and understand why scouts do too. I'm a bit agnostic on Fox. I get why he's risen in the draft, but there are some serious flaws in his game that give me pause. I'm with you on Tatum. He's moved to a consensus top-4 guy, but I just don't see it -- not when Jonathan Isaac is on the board. I think Isaac offers more risk but also substantially more upside.

So Tatum to me is the most overrated guy in the lottery.

Most underrated

Ford: Who's the most underrated lottery prospect for you?

Pelton: The players in the projected lottery who fit into the top 10 of my stats-only projections are Zach Collins, Jonathan Isaac and Dennis Smith. Of those guys, Collins is the only one who isn't in Tier 2, so he'd be a pretty good choice. Still, my opinion most diverges from the tenor of the conversation about Smith. He put up very similar statistics to Markelle Fultz as a freshman.

I get the concerns about Smith not playing hard after North Carolina State's season fell apart -- I saw the same thing watching him play -- but I wonder how much that says about Smith and how much it says about his situation. I think there's a real chance he'll emerge as a star from the back half of the top 10. Who would you say?

Ford: Isaac is the guy for me. I'd have him either No. 3 or 4 on my personal big board. I think he has more upside than Brandon Ingram. Isaac's versatility to defend multiple positions and score in so many different ways is intriguing. Tatum is more ready right now, but I think his ceiling is much lower than Isaac's. I've always been a bit of a gambler in the draft. But if I'm Boston at No. 3 or Phoenix at No. 4, I think I'd lean Isaac.

What about further down in the draft? Anyone outside of the lottery who's getting more interest than he deserves?

Pelton: I'd go with Cal's Ivan Rabb. After deciding to return for 2016-17, his sophomore season, Rabb took a step backward last season and wasn't impressive from either a statistical or a scouting perspective. He doesn't seem to have an elite statistical skill -- he doesn't project in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound post players in any key stat -- and looks to me more like a second-round pick than a late first-rounder. Who would you nominate?

Ford: Rabb is my guy as well. Just not sure what he does in the NBA. He's obviously a good college player and was an elite high school player. But his game is ill-suited for the NBA. The only thing I would add is that Rabb has been dropping on team boards as well. I think it's likely he's a second-rounder at this point.

UNC's Justin Jackson is another guy I'm struggling to get excited about. He's a nonathletic shooter who didn't actually become a good shooter until 2016-17, his junior season. I'm a big skeptic. Looks like a late first-rounder or to early second-rounder to me.

I also worry a little bit about the exuberance around Luke Kennard. He's a great shooter and he's really tough. But I'm not as convinced he's a top-10 or top-12 pick as so many other teams seem to be.

Pelton: Agreed on Kennard. He has the requisite offensive tools, but his poor steal rate and short wingspan suggest trouble on that end.

J.J. Redick has managed to overcome those issues to become a good NBA starter, but there's a longer list of players who have fallen short of expectations because of such issues.

Potential sleepers

Ford: Who's the most underrated for you outside the lottery?

Pelton: There's a wider pool of candidates for underrated, but I'll take Josh Hart. As a senior at Villanova, Hart was a consensus first-team All-American. Perhaps more importantly, his skill set should translate well to a smaller role in the NBA. Hart is a capable 3-point shooter (40 percent as a senior, 39 percent career) with average size for an NBA shooting guard and enough strength to defend some small forwards. Yet it seems that scouts were scared off by his poor showing at the NBA draft combine after his junior year, which caused him to withdraw from the draft and return to school.

Are they missing out on Hart? And who else might be overlooked?

Ford: I have two players. The first is Harry Giles. I understand the injury concerns, but I see a player with as much upside as anyone in the draft. I can't see a team passing on him to select Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Isaac, Fox, Smith or Tatum. But after that, for me, the reward outweighs the risk.

Giles was widely regarded as the best high school prospect in the last decade -- but then he tore his ACL before his senior season. I think his shaky start at Duke scared teams off. But his workouts have been strong. The doctors seem to think his rehab is on schedule. In three years, he could be the best prospect in the draft if he fully recovers and stays healthy. I'd be betting a pick in the Nos. 8-10 range on that.

Further down, I worry that injuries have made teams forget about Alec Peters out of Valparaiso. He's an elite shooter and a good rebounder, and he has very good size as a small forward. I think he should be a first-rounder.

Pelton: Giles is a tough one for me because the main thing I have to go on in terms of statistics is his one season at Duke, which didn't rate particularly well. Teams that scouted him in youth competitions and have been able to work him out prior to the draft should have a much better idea what to expect.

Writing about Peters, I was struck by the similarity between his skill set and Doug McDermott's. Getting that kind of role player in the second round would be strong value.