Chad Ford Big Board 10.0 | "Grade: A" Mock Draft | Int'l Prospects
With the order for the 2015 NBA draft set after Tuesday's lottery, it's a good time to revisit what the numbers have to say about this year's top prospects. In February, I released a preliminary big board of the top 30 prospects in terms of the wins above replacement player (WARP) they're projected to average over their first five NBA seasons. (For more details on the method, see this explanation.)
Since then, we've learned who will be in this year's draft, some of the numbers have changed and I've introduced a consensus projection for WARP incorporating where players rank on my colleague Chad Ford's Big Board as an estimate of how scouts view them. I'm using the consensus projection to rank my updated top 30 with notes on how players would rank going strictly by their statistical projection.
At the end, check out a table of all of Ford's Top 100 prospects who have projections.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky
Consensus: 4.0 WARP | Big Board: 1 | WARP: 3
Towns ranks third in projected WARP (3.0), but the gap is small and his spot atop Ford's Big Board carries heavy weight. As a result, Towns is comfortably No. 1 by consensus. It's hard to find a real concern in Towns' statistics. He's average or better for a center across the board, and his rim protection is elite.
2. D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State
Consensus: 3.7 WARP | Big Board: 3 | WARP: 1
Russell is tops with 3.3 projected WARP, which ranks ninth among one-and-done players in my database. Of the three top freshman prospects, he rated best by my metric on a per-minute basis in college and also is the youngest by a small margin. As a result, his potential is on par with the centers generally rated ahead of him.
3. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Sevilla
Consensus: 3.4 WARP | Big Board: 5 | WARP: 2
When I ranked players in February, Porzingis was seventh on the board. Since then, I've readjusted translations from the Spanish ACB to the NBA, taking into account the successful performance of former Spanish star Nikola Mirotic this season. As a result, Porzingis leaped all the way to second in projected WARP (3.3), nearly even with Russell. With those translations, he rates as nearly NBA average this season in both the ACB and the international EuroCup competition at an age just a few months older than the average college freshman. That provides statistical backing for the handful of teams that have Porzingis in the top three of their board, as Ford has reported.
4. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Guangdong
Consensus: 3.1 WARP | Big Board: 4 | WARP: 7
Back in February, Mudiay was missing from this list. I worked out Chinese CBA-to-NBA translations in March when Ford and I debated his game. While the sample size is small (Mudiay played fewer than 400 minutes due to injury), his performance in China confirmed Mudiay as a top-five pick.
5. Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
Consensus: 3.0 WARP | Big Board: 2 | WARP: 17
Recall from February that Okafor ranked a surprising 14th in projected WARP (2.0) because his high 2-point percentage was regressed heavily to the mean by a system designed to detect fluky performance. While Okafor's shooting accuracy didn't fade, other areas of his game did, and he would rank outside the top five prospects by WARP even if not for the regression factor. Consider this spot something of a compromise. Okafor is far too talented to rank any lower than fifth, but statistically the other top prospects might be safer choices because Okafor's shooting percentage has to be elite for him to be a star.
6. Myles Turner, F/C, Texas
Consensus: 2.6 WARP | Big Board: 9 | WARP: 8
Turner is the last prospect to rank in the top 10 both on Ford's Big Board and in terms of projected WARP (2.6), which has traditionally been a strong indicator of NBA success. His block and defensive rebound percentages were similar to Towns, and Turner brings a valuable stretch element at the offensive end.
7. Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin
Consensus: 2.4 WARP | Big Board: 14 | WARP: 5
While age has historically been an important factor in draft prospects' potential, consider Kaminsky exhibit A that seniors can rate well, too. His 2.7 WARP projection is the best for a senior since Draymond Green (2.8) and Jae Crowder (2.7) in 2012.
8. Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
Consensus: 2.3 WARP | Big Board: 20 | WARP: 4
Jones ranks fourth in projected WARP (2.8), but his ranking on Ford's Big Board pushes him down. Scouts have good reason to question Jones' combination of small stature and non-elite athleticism, but he demonstrated en route to a national championship his strong skills and leadership. If Jones can hang with bigger foes, he'll be a steal.
9. Mario Hezonja, SG, FC Barcelona
Consensus: 2.2 WARP | Big Board: 7 | WARP: 22
Hezonja's 1.9 projected WARP certainly isn't bad, but he is on the low side for a possible top-10 pick. In particular, the concern in his translated stats is his ability to get to the free throw line. Playing a small role on a strong Barcelona team, Hezonja has attempted just six foul shots in 457 ACB minutes. His free throw rate was much better in Euroleague play.
10. Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
Consensus: 2.2 WARP | Big Board: 6 | WARP: 27
Before the national championship game, Ford and I looked in great detail at why Winslow's season-long numbers don't match the impact he had for the Blue Devils during their title run. Still, factoring in scouting consensus puts Winslow on par with Hezonja as the best wing in the draft.
11. R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
Consensus: 2.2 WARP | Big Board: 21 | WARP: 6
Kentucky's Devin Booker has stolen Hunter's shine as the best prospect among the shooting specialists in this draft. While Booker was far more accurate last season, projections that factor in all three seasons Hunter played at Georgia State suggest he'll eventually be the better NBA 3-point shooter because of his superior free throw percentage.
12. Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
Consensus: 2.2 WARP | Big Board: 11 | WARP: 11
Payne is not far from being a top-10 player by both projected WARP (2.2, 11th) and scouting consensus, making him a strong late-lottery choice.
13. Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona
Consensus: 2.2 WARP | Big Board: 10 | WARP: 14
The group of small forwards likely to go between No. 10 and No. 20 (also including Sam Dekker and Kelly Oubre Jr.) all rate similarly in terms of projected WARP, but Johnson's advantage on Ford's Big Board gives him the edge.
14. Delon Wright, G, Utah
Consensus: 2.0 WARP | Big Board: 26 | WARP: 9
Nobody in the draft has a better rookie projection than Wright, whose versatile game puts him ahead of Kaminsky. Because Wright already is 23, his long-term WARP projection (2.6) is less effusive, though still good enough to put him in the top 10 statistically. Fit is important for Wright, who is most valuable with the ball in his hands, but his defense and rebounding give him a chance to be a steal.
15. Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin
Consensus: 2.0 WARP | Big Board: 15 | WARP: 10
Of the aforementioned group of mid-round small forwards, Dekker has the best WARP projection (2.2) because he projects as a more efficient scorer than Johnson and Oubre.
16. Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas
Consensus: 2.0 WARP | Big Board: 16 | WARP: 12
One of the safest bets in the teens, Portis ranks 12th in terms of projected WARP (2.1).
17. Kelly Oubre Jr., Kansas, SF
Consensus: 1.7 WARP | Big Board: 18 | WARP: 23
Oubre has a lower WARP projection (1.8) than the wings he's being compared to in this part of the draft, though the difference is hardly dramatic.
18. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
Consensus: 1.6 WARP | Big Board: 8 | WARP: 35
Using consensus projections helps Cauley-Stein, who rates as a second-round pick by projected WARP (1.1). No box-score metric will sufficiently credit Cauley-Stein for his defensive versatility, but his middling defensive rebounding makes comparisons to dominating rebounders like DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandleris a bit of a stretch.
19. Kevon Looney, F, UCLA
Consensus: 1.6 WARP | Big Board: 19 | WARP: 25
When Looney was projected in the top 10, his WARP projection (1.8) didn't match that lofty ranking. Now that Looney has slid, he's one of a handful of players who ranks in the same spot by consensus as on Ford's Big Board.
20. Christian Wood, UNLV, PF
Consensus: 1.6 WARP | Big Board: 25 | WARP: 21
Wood compares favorably to Looney. He projects as a slightly better rebounder, to block shots more than twice as frequently and shoot a higher percentage from 2-point range. Because Looney is younger, their WARP projections are similar but still give Wood (1.9) the edge.
21. Cedi Osman, SG, Anadolu Efes
Consensus: 1.5 WARP | Big Board: 33 | WARP: 19
At 19, Osman played an important role for Anadolu Efes in the Euroleague. He's a good rebounder for a guard and has major potential if he starts knocking down the 3. Expect him to go early in the second round as a draft-and-stash prospect.
22. Michael Frazier II, SG, Florida
Consensus: 1.5 WARP | Big Board: 36 | WARP: 15
The formula I've developed to project NBA 3-point percentage using college 3-point percentage, 3-point attempts and free throw percentage pegs Frazier as the best shooter in the draft and projects him to make 41 percent of his 3s. His game isn't as well-rounded as Hunter's, but that kind of shooting would make Frazier excellent value in the early second round.
23. Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
Consensus: 1.4 WARP | Big Board: 13 | WARP: 33
Of the three NCAA sharpshooters in this year's draft, Booker is likely to go first but ranks third even adjusting for his draft status. In part, Booker doesn't project quite as well as a shooter based on my model because his shooting numbers at Kentucky (41 percent from 3, 83 percent from the line) were very good but not great. More problematic, though, are Booker's defensive stats. He had just two blocks all season, and his steal rate (1.3 percent) was extremely poor for a college guard. Booker was also a non-factor on the defensive glass. Even if Booker develops into an elite shooter, his defensive limitations could force him into a reserve role like Anthony Morrow.
24. Alan Williams, PF, UC Santa Barbara
Consensus: 1.3 WARP | Big Board: 48 | WARP: 16
Williams is the classic undersized big man who was productive at the collegiate level. His steal rate suggests he has the quickness needed to transition to defending power forwards in the NBA, and his rebound and block percentages are outstanding.
25. Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse
Consensus: 1.2 WARP | Big Board: 29 | WARP: 29
McCullough's performance at Syracuse before he tore his ACL doesn't suggest he's close to ready to contribute in the NBA. His steal and block rates were both strong, however, suggesting long-term potential.
26. Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
Consensus: 1.2 WARP | Big Board: 12 | WARP: 47
Of the players in the top 30 by consensus, Lyles has the lowest WARP projection (0.9, 47th). Teams will have to determine how much of that non-production had to do with playing out of position at Kentucky.
27. Marc Garcia, SG, Manresa
Consensus: 1.2 WARP | Big Board: 74 | WARP: 13
The promising Garcia played regular minutes in the ACB this season before his 19th birthday. While he's struggled as a shooter, making 29 percent of his 3-point attempts and just 26 percent of his shots inside the arc, his other numbers were respectable, suggesting he could be valuable if and when his shooting comes around. Something similar was true of former teammate Alex Abrines, drafted by the Oklahoma City Thunder early in the 2013 second round, who quickly developed into one of Europe's top young players.
28. Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Sevilla/ACB
Consensus: 1.2 WARP | Big Board: 45 | WARP: 24
While Garcia's projection is all about potential, Hernangomez has been productive as a below-the-rim big man in the ACB, averaging 10.4 points and 6.0 rebounds in just 21 minutes per game. Only Kentucky's Dakari Johnson has a better projected offensive rebound percentage.
29. Richaun Holmes, PF, Bowling Green
Consensus: 1.1 WARP | Big Board: 43 | WARP: 26
Holmes' late rise up draft boards after a strong performance at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament is backed up by his performance at Bowling Green. Holmes ranks fourth in the draft by projected block percentage.
30. Briante Weber, G, VCU
Consensus: 1.1 WARP | Big Board: 75 | WARP: 18
Weber's projected steal percentage (4.6 percent) is off the charts; nobody in my college database has a projection better than 3.2 percent (Russ Smith). Alas, Weber's hopes of going in the second round were probably dashed by the torn ACL that ended his college career in January.