To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Devin Booker.
WARP Projection: 1.0 (42nd among players in top 100)
Comparables: Bradley Beal (87.1), Tobias Harris (84.6), Luol Deng (81.4), Thaddeus Young (79.4)
Strengths: Shooting, TO%
Weaknesses: Usage, FTA%, Rebound%, Assist%, Steal%, Block%
The analytics perspective
There are red flags all over Booker's freshman statistics, starting with his aversion to larceny. After picking up nine steals in his first six games, Booker had just eight in the final 32 games. He also did little to contribute to Kentucky's NCAA-best blocks total, swatting just two shots all season. As a result, Booker's combined steal and block percentages are among the lowest in my college stats database:
(I'm not sure why these players tend to exclusively come from Kentucky and UCLA despite playing under a variety of different coaches.)
Booker also scores near the bottom of NBA-bound shooting guards in both rebound and assist rates. It's possible for such a one-dimensional specialist to succeed in the NBA, and Booker's 3-point (41.1 percent) and free throw (82.8 percent) percentages suggest he should develop into a quality shooter. However, it's incredibly rare for such players to enter the draft as freshmen, which is why Booker has no players with a similarity score of 90 or better at the same age.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
Booker has three major attributes with which to impress NBA teams.
At 6-foot-6, he has the positional size for the NBA shooting guard position. Shooting 41 percent this season behind the arc and 83 percent from the free throw line, he has an authentic NBA stroke. And, finally, he has tremendous room for improvement because he will not turn 19 until the beginning of his first NBA season.
At Kentucky, Booker had one job this season -- to make 3-point shots -- and coach John Calipari gave him the green light. Playing roughly half of each game, he made 58 3-point shots over the season.
Booker, although not a great ball handler, is elusive enough to create his own shots. Curiously, however, he only connected on 28 percent of his 2-point jump shots this season. Many of his missed shots inside the arc came as a result of too many of his shots created being challenged by the defense. Creating your own shot is a skill. Judiciously knowing when not to force it is correctable.
Defensively, while Booker is not blessed with great speed, I was impressed with his effort and on-ball technique. He tries to defend and that is a good starting point. At the college level, he used his size well to challenge shots and doesn't foul. And keep in mind that in the Wildcats' switching man-to-man defense this season, he has guarded four positions.
Booker, the son of former Missouri standout Melvin Booker, seems to have a great attitude and work ethic to go along with first-round NBA talent. And when you account for the fact that he will be one of the youngest players in this draft, I won't be surprised if his stock continues to rise by draft night.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front-office perspective
Coming into his freshman season at Kentucky, scouts didn't expect much. With both Andrew and Aaron Harrison returning for their sophomore seasons, Booker was expected to play a small role off the bench. But by the summer John Calipari had announced his platoon system and it didn't take long for scouts to see that Booker, not the Harrison twins, was the best guard on Kentucky.
His appeal is pretty simple -- he's one of the two or three best shooters in college basketball and with the rise of the Splash Brothers, everyone is clamoring after shooters. While Booker doesn't have elite size or athleticism for his position, he has a high basketball IQ and a great feel for the game. Plus, he has proved to be a solid finisher at the basket.
Look for him to go somewhere in the 13-20 range depending on how he works out against the other top shooting guard in the draft, Georgia State's R.J. Hunter.
"I think he's gotten caught up in Calipari's reality-distortion field," one GM said. "No one saw him in high school or in the early scrimmages for Kentucky and said 'lottery pick.' No one. He's a smart kid and I like him, but he has one NBA skill and so do several other guys ranked a lot lower. He's hit a bunch of shots this year and there's always value there. But what makes him that much better than Tyler Harvey or Joseph Young? You think if those guys were at Kentucky they'd hit shots too?"
-- Chad Ford