Debating Dekker vs. Winslow

The NCAA final is Monday night, and while NBA scouts didn't get to see the matchup they wanted between likely top two picks Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns, the consolation prize is pretty good. They do get to see the two hottest names in the NCAA tournament -- Duke's Justise Winslow and Wisconsin's Sam Dekker -- go head-to-head.

Q: Which wing has the better NBA future: Winslow or Dekker?

Ford: I really like both players -- a lot. Both are worthy of lottery picks in my opinion. However, I think Winslow is the better prospect. He's at No. 6 in my Top 100 and has been in the top 10 most of the year. Dekker is good too. He has moved up to No. 13 in our updated Top 100, and I think he has a great shot in the lottery.

Kevin? I think you have a pretty different take.

Pelton: You might be surprised. I'm not as down on Winslow as my statistical projections. Even with his great run, Winslow still hasn't cracked the top 30 in projected WARP. However, when you break it down Winslow has really had three different seasons: nonconference play, when he was OK but unspectacular; a stretch early in ACC competition where he played ineffectively through multiple minor injuries; and the past 20 games, where he has emerged as a possible top-five pick.

Really, it's hard to tell statistically that these stat lines come from the same player:

If we do consider those three different prospects, Winslow's WARP projection is 1.3 from nonconference play (which would rank 35th among prospects in the top 100), 0.8 from the stretch where he dealt with injuries (49th) and 2.3 over the past 19 games (13th, but just behind fellow potential top-five picks Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis).

I'm not sure we should completely discount the Winslow we saw over the first couple of months. In general, it's not a good idea to throw out data unless it's clearly flawed -- such as Winslow's obviously aberrant performance while battling injuries. But this does give statistical backup for what scouts are seeing in Winslow, and frankly anyone who has watched him during the NCAA tournament.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but at this point Dekker might be a touch overrated. For the first time, he's actually higher on your board than mine (15th) since his big NCAA tournament has been built largely on unsustainably hot shooting that hasn't improved his projection. So I would pick Winslow.

Q: What are Winslow's strengths and weaknesses as a pro?

Ford: I think Winslow has several advantages over Dekker that make him the better pro prospect. He has an NBA body and elite athletic ability. Dekker is a very good athlete, but he's not a Justise Winslow-type athlete. Winslow is both incredibly quick and an explosive leaper. I think he plays with one of the best motors in college basketball. He goes all out on every play. He's a good rebounder for his position. He has the ability to be an elite defender who can guard 2s, 3s, and 4s. He's also proved to be a good 3-point shooter when he gets his feet set under him.

The downsides for Winslow primarily center on his total lack of a midrange game. He's shooting 26 percent on his 2-point jumpers this season according to hoop-math.com. That's really, really ugly, though that number has improved quite a bit over the past month. He's also a poor free throw shooter. He can be turnover-prone. And if he's a 3 he's slightly undersized for his position, though his 6-foot-10 wingspan makes up for some of it.

What do the numbers say, Kevin?

Pelton: Remarkably, over the course of the season, Winslow doesn't score as in the top or bottom quarter of incoming NBA small forwards in any key stat. Again, that's different over the second half of the season. His steal rate in particular (3.1 percent of opponents' plays) is elite, and his 56.0 percent 2-point shooting in that span is also very good for a wing.

The biggest concern I see in Winslow's stats is his 64.4 percent free throw shooting. He has been good but not great at the charity stripe since getting healthy (72.0 percent). As I noted recently when projecting R.J. Hunter, free throw percentage is actually a better predictor of NBA 3-point shooting than college 3-point percentage because the samples are usually so small. So don't expect Winslow's 41.7 percent accuracy to carry over.

Q: What are Dekker's strengths and weaknesses as a pro?

Ford: He's got great size for his position. He's 6-9 and can play the 2, 3 and 4. He's incredibly tough and scrappy. He's a very good athlete with quickness and explosion at the rim. When he's keyed in, he can be very aggressive and score from anywhere on the floor. He's especially effective scoring at the rim (shooting a very impressive 75 percent) and while he's a streaky 3-point shooter, he clearly has the range. His super-low turnover rate is also really impressive.

On the downside, Dekker can disappear for stretches and even entire games. The hyperaggressive Dekker we've seen for most of the NCAA tournament (he did disappear in the middle of the Kentucky game before coming on strong at the end) isn't always the Dekker we've seen this season. And while he has been nailing 3s in the tournament, coming into the tournament, he was shooting just a shade above 30 percent for the season.

Pelton: That's a pretty good summary. Dekker's turnover-free play is a secret strength, one reason the numbers have always been so effusive even when he wasn't making 3s. Dekker is also a high-percentage 2-point shooter: 63.8 percent this season. The lack of aggression is reflected in Dekker's poor free throw rate. One other weakness I'd note is Dekker's steal rate is a touch low for a perimeter player -- though nowhere near a red flag.

Q: Who are the comps for Winslow and Dekker?

Ford: A couple of comps come to mind for Winslow. I keep hearing James Harden, but I don't see that at all. I think he plays with the energy, toughness and has the intangibles of a Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Remember MKG helped UK win a title playing sidekick to Anthony Davis with many saying it was he, not Davis, who was the most important player on that Kentucky team. He ended up going No. 2 overall in a very good draft and one can argue he's the most important player (ESPN's real-plus minus would say the best) on the Hornets at the ripe old age of 21. Winslow plays essentially the same function next to Okafor. But he's a better shooter and has a better body.

I think I like the Kawhi Leonard comp even better. Leonard was a little bigger and a little more established, but I think both could have a similar impact on both ends.

As for Dekker, I keep hearing Gordon Hayward and Keith Van Horn, because, as you know, there's an unwritten rule that all white players have to be compared to other white players. But the two guys who remind me the most of Dekker are Luol Deng and Jeff Green. What do your numbers say, Kevin? I admit I'm horrible at finding comps. Both guys are pretty unique.

Pelton: Here's a scary but true fact: Over the second half of the season, Winslow has posted both steal and block rates better than Kidd-Gilchrist and Leonard did as freshmen. That should speak to his potential. I see the Harden comparison, but only in terms of how they handle the ball, not overall style of play. Similar to Harden, Winslow likes to Eurostep in the open court and has the same habit of carrying the ball with it exposed to defenders, inviting them to foul him.

Leonard does score quite close to Winslow's second half (Kidd-Gilchrist, oddly, is more similar to the overall season). But in either case, the No. 1 comp is Thaddeus Young. If Winslow is Young on offense and Kidd-Gilchrist on defense, that's a valuable player.

SCHOENE isn't much help with Dekker. His best comp by a large margin is James Anderson, the Oklahoma State wing who evolved into a one-dimensional 3-point specialist before falling out of the NBA. I can't say I see Dekker following the same path. Hayward actually scores as reasonably similar, though he's a much better shooter than Dekker. A subjective comp I've been using is Harrison Barnes in terms of a wing with size, but Barnes also shoots it better. Dekker might just be one of a kind.

Q: Who do you have winning the national title?

Ford: I had Kentucky. Obviously that's out. So I'm going with Wisconsin. I think it will be a very good game and very, very close, but I just love the way Wisconsin is playing right now. They have so much confidence and swagger.

Pelton: I'm going Duke. Like Winslow, the Blue Devils have made a stunning in-season transition, developing into an elite defense after struggling so badly that Coach K was forced to the zone for extended stretches. Both teams are determined to take away opponent 3-point attempts, and between Winslow's slashing and Okafor's ability to score one-on-one in the post, I think Duke is more equipped to win without making 3s. The Blue Devils made just three triples in blowing out Michigan State and two against Utah in the regional semifinal.