To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Georgia State' s R.J. Hunter.
WARP Projection: 2.6 (seventh among players in the top 100)
Comparables: Chris Johnson (94.4), Marcus Thornton (92.1), Damian Lillard (90.7), James Anderson (90.7)
Strengths: Shooting, Steal%, Block%, TO%, PF%
Weaknesses: None
The analytics perspective
The concern about Hunter will surely center on an alleged shooting specialist making just 30.5 percent of his 3-pointers during his final college season. However, there's plenty of reason to believe that mark isn't indicative of Hunter's actual shooting ability.
If you're looking to predict how well a player will shoot 3s in the NBA, it turns out college 3-point percentage isn't the best predictor. In fact, it barely even helps the prediction at all, which instead relies on free throw percentage and the percentage of a player's attempts that come from 3-point range. Hunter scores high on both of those measures; he has made 88 percent of his free throws the past two seasons and took more than half his shots from beyond the arc. Based on those facts, we'd guess he'll develop into a 39 percent career 3-point shooter in the NBA -- second to Florida's Michael Frazier II among players in Chad Ford's top 100.
Even with the poor shooting, Hunter rated as one of the most valuable players in college basketball because of his well-rounded contributions. There is reason to be skeptical of his high steal and block rates, since Hunter played primarily in a zone defense against much smaller wings. Still, his combination of size and shooting ability is rare and valuable.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
Coming off a good run in the NCAA tournament by Georgia State, Hunter is probably picking a good time to leave for the NBA. The junior has had three productive seasons for the Panthers and his heroic last three minutes versus Baylor remain fresh in the minds of many people.
In reality, NBA teams have already scouted Hunter thoroughly and know his strengths and weaknesses well. For me, Hunter's strengths start with his positional size for a shooting guard and his deep, albeit inconsistent shooting range. In addition, he moves well off screens to create shooting opportunities and has good footwork, both with and without the ball.
Hunter's footwork allows him to get in position to catch and shoot quickly. With the ball, he has an excellent rock-step move to free himself from defenders.
One negative that stands out is his 31 percent 3-point shooting this season and pedestrian 35 percent shooting on 2-point jump shots in non-transition situations. It's clear that Hunter has the "green light" in the Panthers' offense and that led to him taking a lot of low-percentage shots all season. In contrast, Hunter made 38 percent of his 453 attempts in his first two college seasons.
The question of competition in the Sun Belt Conference might be an issue, but Hunter has played against a number of high-level teams during his career. In five games versus teams that participated in the NCAA or NIT this season, he averaged 15.7 points on 38 percent shooting -- 30 percent behind the arc -- while attempting 16 shots a game.
Hunter, by NBA standards, has average athletic ability, speed and quickness. It will affect him on the defensive end of the floor initially. And, while his shot selection this season can be questioned, he will be surrounded by better players at the NBA level where he can focus on his one perceived strength: his ability to shoot the basketball.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front office perspective
Is Hunter an elite shooter or just a high-volume shooter? That's the question every GM and scout that I've spoken to is asking. For two seasons, Hunter drew interest from NBA teams as a Klay Thompson-like shooting guard who can handle the ball, play the passing lanes and shoot with unlimited range. He exhibited a high basketball IQ and this summer at the LeBron Camp, many scouts felt he was one of the two or three best NBA prospects there
The problem for Hunter is that he had a horrible 3-point shooting slump as a junior. Hunter took a whopping 262 3s this season, but made just 80 of them -- a 31 percent clip. That's not the mark of the next Klay Thompson.
The question is: Did he suddenly forget how to shoot? (He shot nearly 40 percent from 3-point territory as a sophomore with the same volume of shots.) Or is there something else going on? As you analyze the tape, it's clear that Hunter had to settle for tougher and tougher shots as a junior as defenses keyed in to stop him every night. He won't draw nearly the same defensive attention at the NBA level, which means scouts are hoping that he's closer to 40 percent than 30 percent at the next level. If he is, he's worthy of a late lottery pick. If he isn't, then the late first round seems more appropriate. Right now the scouts and GMs I have spoken with have him going between No. 13 and No. 20, but much of his stock will likely depend on how he shoots the ball in workouts. If he regains his stock there, his going 13-15 sounds about right. If he struggles, he could fall into the late 20s or out of the first round.
-- Chad Ford