Chad Ford Big Board 6.0 | Mock Draft Machine | Int'l Watch List
With statistics beginning to settle midway through the conference schedules, it's time to unveil our first statistical Big Board of 2015. My projections for college and international prospects attempt to estimate how many wins above replacement player (WARP) they'll be worth on average during their first five seasons in the NBA, adjusted so future performance is less valuable than short-term returns.
That projection is based on two metrics: The player's per-minute performance, translated to its NBA equivalent and regressed to the average of rookies at their position, and their age. For more on WARP projections and their strengths and weaknesses, see this explanation.
Note that a handful of international prospects, most notably Emmanuel Mudiay, do not have projections because they do not play in one of the leagues for which I have NBA translations.
1. D'Angelo Russell
Current team: Ohio State | HT: 6-5 | WT: 176 | POS: G | WARP: 3.3
Chad Ford and I went long on Russell last week, explaining what has allowed him to rise to the top of my WARP projections. Since then, Russell has only reinforced his versatility by posting his first career triple-double (23 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists) in a win over Rutgers.
2. Tyus Jones
Current team: Duke | HT: 6-1 | WT: 170 | POS: PG | WARP: 3.1
A Duke freshman makes sense behind Russell, but surprisingly it's Jones and not Jahlil Okafor with the better projection. Jones' efficient playmaking (3.2 assist-to-turnover ratio) and 39 percent 3-point shooting boost his stock. However, his projection will drop as it becomes clear his inaccurate 2-point shooting is no fluke.
3. Myles Turner
Current team: Texas | HT: 7-1 | WT: 240 | POS: C | WARP: 2.9
Turner has been dominant on a per-minute basis (19.9 points, 11.5 rebounds and 5.0 blocks per 40 minutes) while averaging just 22.2 minutes per game. Because he has feasted on lesser competition, scouts will be watching to see if that holds up in the NCAA tournament.
4. Frank Kaminsky
Current team: Wisconsin | HT: 7-0 | WT: 234 | POS: F/C | WARP: 2.8
The ultimate scouts-vs.-stats prospect, Kaminsky has been as good as anyone in college hoops as a senior. His ability to stretch the floor figures to be valuable in the NBA. Can he defend well enough for teams to take advantage of that skill?
5. Karl-Anthony Towns
Current team: Kentucky | HT: 7-1 | WT: 245 | POS: C | WARP: 2.7
As the dominant interior force (he's top 10 nationally in block rate) on the nation's best defense, Towns has the NCAA's lowest individual defensive rating, according to College-Basketball-Reference. While his offense isn't quite as polished, he has the potential to be nearly as good at the other end.
6. R.J. Hunter
Current team: Georgia State | HT: 6-5 | WT: 175 | POS: SG | WARP: 2.6
Because of an outside shooting slump (he's hitting 30.8 percent of his 3s, after making 39.7 percent last season), Hunter hasn't climbed draft boards as a junior. He still has been valuable because of his ability to get to the free throw line, the space he creates, and excellent steal and block rates.
7. Kristaps Porzingis
Current team: Sevilla | HT: 6-11 | WT: 220 | POS: PF | WARP: 2.4
Last season, Porzingis ranked just fifth among international prospects in projected WARP before pulling his name out of the draft. He has boosted his projection with strong play in 2014-15, particularly in EuroCup competition. Porzingis now looks like an immediate contributor at age 20.
8. Delon Wright
Current team: Utah | HT: 6-5 | WT: 178 | POS: G | WARP: 2.4
The nation's most versatile player, Wright has led Utah to national prominence by stuffing the stat sheet. He combines the size of an off guard, which allows him to rack up rebounds, steals and blocks, with the court vision of a point guard. Wright isn't a 3-point threat (27.9 percent this season), which will make it tough for him to contribute off the ball in the NBA. But he has earned the right to run an offense.
9. Tyler Ulis
Current team: Kentucky | HT: 5-9 | WT: 142 | POS: PG | WARP: 2.4
On a team filled with NBA prospects, Ulis gets no love, in large part because of his small stature. Like Jones, his projection is likely to drop over the course of the season as we get more data on his ability. But keep him in mind down the road, given his impressive playmaking.
10. Bobby Portis
Current team: Arkansas | HT: 6-11 | WT: 231 | POS: PF | WARP: 2.3
A favorite of the advanced stats as an inconsistent freshman, Portis has translated that into more obvious dominance as a sophomore, averaging 19.3 points and 10.0 rebounds per game in SEC play. He's both a smooth outside shooter and a major presence in the paint and on the offensive glass.
11. Michael Frazier II
Current team: Florida | HT: 6-4 | WT: 200 | POS: SG | WARP: 2.2
As a role player on a team short on go-to guys, Frazier has had a slightly disappointing junior season. Expect him to perform better in the NBA, where the 43.9 percent career 3-point shooter can feed on a steady diet of open looks.
12. Alan Williams
Current team: UC Santa Barbara | HT: 6-8 | WT: 265 | POS: PF | WARP: 2.2
Williams is what you get when you go to central casting and ask for an undersized but productive big man. His rebound rate has been better than 20 percent all four seasons of his college career, and Williams also excels as a shot-blocker. Count on an analytics-friendly team drafting him in the second round.
13. Christian Wood
Current team: UNLV | HT: 6-11 | WT: 220 | POS: PF | WARP: 2.2
A rangy athlete who is a fine rebounder and shot-blocker, Wood has been held back in college primarily by his poor 3-point shooting (17-for-63, 27.0 percent this season). Assuming Wood either improves or forgets the 3, he'll be a quality pro.
14. Jahlil Okafor
Current team: Duke | HT: 6-11 | WT: 275 | POS: C | WARP: 2.1
Don't be alarmed by Okafor's low projection. As I've explained, Okafor throws my system for a loop because his 2-point percentage is such an outlier. Removing the factor of regressing player projections to the mean, and Okafor shoots to second on the list behind Russell.
15. Gary Payton II
Current team: Oregon State | HT: 6-3 | WT: 175 | POS: PG | WARP: 2.1
The son of the Hall of Famer has burst on the scene at his father's alma mater as a junior college transfer, leading the Beavers to an improbable 14-0 start at home. Payton has piled up steals and blocks in Oregon State's zone defense and is the team's leading rebounder. Still, Payton will probably have to prove he can play the point to find his way into the first round of the draft.
16. Sam Dekker
Current team: Wisconsin | HT: 6-8 | WT: 215 | POS: SF | WARP: 2.1
Dekker's per-game stats (13.2 points and 5.3 rebounds) don't scream first-round pick. He excels with efficiency, making 62.9 percent of his 2-point attempts this season and turning the ball over on less than one in 10 possessions. Add good size for a wing, and Dekker figures to be a useful NBA role player.
17. Fred VanVleet
Current team: Wichita State | HT: 5-11 | WT: 194 | POS: PG | WARP: 2.0
The engine behind one of the nation's best offenses, VanVleet ranks just outside the top 10 in assist rate and sports a 3.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. A high steal rate is also catnip for statistical projections. VanVleet's stature will likely make the junior a four-year player.
18. Chris McCullough
Current team: Syracuse | HT: 6-9 | WT: 200 | POS: PF | WARP: 2.0
A torn ACL suffered last month will probably keep McCullough out of this year's draft. Keep your eye on him down the road. Though McCullough was an inefficient scorer, his impressive combination of blocks and steals showed great promise.
19. Stanley Johnson
Current team: Arizona | HT: 6-7 | WT: 237 | POS: SF | WARP: 2.1
Physically, Johnson looks like a man among boys playing against older opponents. He also has proven a better shooter than expected, making 3-pointers at a 39.3 percent clip. Surprisingly, Johnson's shortcoming has been his finishing. He's shooting just 50.0 percent at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com.
20. Kevon Looney
Current team: UCLA | HT: 6-10 | WT: 210 | POS: F | WARP: 2.0
Looney's offense is still very much a work in progress. Despite his athleticism, he's making just 48.0 percent of his 2-point attempts because he takes too many midrange shots. Looney's skills have made more of an impact on the glass and defensively, and his stat line is highly similar to Kawhi Leonard's as a freshman at San Diego State.
21. Briante Weber
Current team: VCU | HT: 6-2 | WT: 165 | POS: G | WARP: 2.0
Weber tore his ACL on Jan. 31, but his injury was far more disheartening because it ended his career 12 steals shy of the NCAA record. Weber's off-the-charts steal rate almost solely drives his lofty projection. To make the NBA, he'll have to demonstrate he can run a half-court offense.
22. Cameron Payne
Current team: Murray State | HT: 6-2 | WT: 180 | POS: PG | WARP: 1.9
Only Kentucky has a longer winning streak than the Racers of Murray State, and Payne -- a sophomore -- is the biggest reason why. He ranks in the nation's top 10 in assist rate and has shouldered a heavy load, attempting nearly a third of the team's shots while on the floor with above-average efficiency.
23. Guillermo Hernangomez
Current team: Sevilla | HT: 6-11 | WT: 255 | POS: C | WARP: 1.9
What if I told you Porzingis wasn't the leading scorer on his own team? That honor -- at least in Spanish league play -- belongs to Hernangomez, a skilled 20-year-old post player who excels on the glass. Hernangomez projects as something of an Enes Kanter-type of player in the NBA.
24. Kelly Oubre Jr.
Current team: Kansas | HT: 6-7 | WT: 204 | POS: SF | WARP: 1.9
Having come on after a slow start, Oubre has established himself as a well-rounded contributor. He's one of four draft prospects, along with R.J. Hunter, Stanley Johnson and North Carolina's Kennedy Meeks, without a weakness in any key statistic relative to typical NBA-bound players at their position.
25. Jakob Poeltl
Current team: Utah | HT: 7-0 | WT: 230 | POS: C | WARP: 1.8
Without question the most promising player in Austrian basketball history -- the country has never produced an NBA player -- Poeltl burst on the scene as a true freshman. He has been slowed in conference play while dealing with nagging injuries, but is a strong rebounder with a high basketball IQ.
26. Cedi Osman
Current team: Anadolu Efes | HT: 6-6 | WT: 190 | POS: G | WARP: 1.8
Not yet 20, Osman is playing an important role for Euroleague power Efes alongside 2014 lottery pick Dario Saric and NBA vets Matt Janning and Nenad Krstic. He has excellent size for a combo guard and is a presence on the glass from the perimeter.
27. Chinanu Onuaku
Current team: Louisville | HT: 6-10 | WT: 230 | POS: C | WARP: 1.9
A raw freshman averaging just 17.5 minutes per game, Onuaku won't be thinking NBA for another year or two. When he does, his excellent block rate and high-percentage finishing suggest a quality role player in the middle.
28. Ron Baker
Current team: Wichita State | HT: 6-3 | WT: 213 | POS: G | WARP: 1.7
VanVleet's backcourt mate gets more love from scouts. He's versatile enough to play point guard in the NBA and has made 41.5 percent of his 3-point attempts this season.
29. Cliff Alexander
Current team: Kansas | HT: 6-8 | WT: 251 | POS: PF | WARP: 1.8
Long arms and a chiseled frame make Alexander a problem for opponents in the paint despite his relatively small stature. He's been a force on the offensive glass and as a finisher, and is a fine shot-blocker for a power forward.
30. Mario Hezonja
Current team: FC Barcelona | HT: 6-6 | WT: 200 | POS: SG | WARP: 1.7
At age 19, Hezonja has blown up as a prospect playing quality minutes for Barcelona in ACB and Euroleague play. His projection is a bit more cautious, expressing skepticism about Hezonja's dramatic shooting improvement. But he'll move up if he maintains 40 percent-plus 3-point shooting the remainder of the season.