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Could D'Angelo Russell go No. 1?

Mock Draft 2.0 | Big Board 5.0 | Top 100

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Question: Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell has been the highest riser on Chad Ford's Top 100 the past month. Has he become a legit candidate for the No. 1 pick?

Chad Ford: Yes and no. I think Duke's Jahlil Okafor is the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft right now. Not only has he been arguably the best player in college basketball, but players his size and skill level don't come along very often. As I noted in my column looking at what all 14 teams in the lottery would do if they landed the No. 1 pick, Okafor tops every board.

But Russell is making a strong case for the No. 1 pick. He's the hottest name among NBA scouts and general managers at the moment. He, too, has been a potent offensive weapon as a freshman. He's a terrific scorer, a lethal shooter with deep range on his jump shot and he can really see the floor. Russell is a 6-foot-5 combo guard who makes the game look effortless. For teams with young post prospects like the Philadelphia 76ers and Utah Jazz, he's going to be very tempting. I've moved him up to No. 3 on my Top 100 and he's right there in the mix along with Emmanuel Mudiay, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis.

Kevin, does your analytics big board have him as high as scouts do right now?

Kevin Pelton: Higher. With this week's update, Russell has risen to No. 1 in projected WARP. He's surpassed Okafor as the most valuable freshman in the NCAA, and is actually threatening senior guards Jerian Grant and Delon Wright to become the most valuable player overall by my metrics. When you do that before your 19th birthday -- Russell won't blow out the candles for another three weeks -- you absolutely have to be in the mix for the top pick, in my opinion.

Question: What are Russell's biggest strengths and weaknesses as an NBA prospect?

Ford: There are a number of things that Russell is doing well right now. He has proved to be a terrific, efficient scorer despite the fact that defenses in the Big Ten are keying in on him every night as Ohio State's only real weapon on offense. Russell takes 45 percent of his shots from 3-point range and is hitting a terrific 45 percent. His 2-point jumpers are a little low at 40 percent, but his field goal percentage at the rim jumps back up to 65 percent. In short, he can score from anywhere on the floor.

Teams are also thrilled with the idea that at 6-5, he could be a point guard at the next level. Russell has an assist ratio of 21.8 percent. It's not quite as high as some of the other elite point guards in the draft like Utah's Wright or Notre Dame's Grant, but Russell also plays primarily off the ball for Ohio State. Senior Shannon Scott runs the show for them.

Teams love big point guards and they love guards who can shoot the ball, and Russell's doing both right now. As far as weaknesses? He can be a little turnover prone (a little over 11 percent of his possessions end in a turnover) and he hasn't been a lockdown defender. But offensively, he's the whole package.

Pelton: I would say I'm a little more skeptical of Russell offensively. Statistically, his biggest weakness is that he gets to the free throw line relatively rarely -- 4.7 times per game -- and he could definitely stand to take fewer midrange jumpers.

On the positive side of the ledger, you didn't mention rebounding. Because of his size, Russell is pulling down 6.9 boards per 40 minutes, which is good for a guard and great if he plays the point.

Question: How does Russell compare to other combo guards in the NBA and in this year's draft?

Ford: The NBA is trend-focused and right now everyone is gushing over the Splash Brothers in Golden State -- Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Scouts are out there looking for the next Curry, and Russell may be as close as anyone is going to get in this draft. I'm not sure Russell is that pure a shooter (who is?) but there are some similarities there. I also think Russell has a little James Harden in him. He's not the most explosive athlete in the gym, but he's a smooth athlete who uses a combination of physical tools and basketball IQ to get wherever he wants on the floor. As far as players in this year's draft, I think the only guard on par with him is Mudiay -- and they are very different players. Mudiay is all about power and athleticism -- he's the Derrick Rose to Russell's Curry.

Pelton: It's tough for me to compare Russell to Mudiay without the benefit of college stats, but there's definitely nobody in the NCAA who really compares to him. The best point guards on my board are smaller players like Duke's Tyus Jones. Wright is somewhat similar in terms of versatility, but not anywhere close to Russell as a shooter.

Besides Harden, the other name that's come up a lot in comparisons is Manu Ginobili. All three are lefty shooting guards who play more like point guards. The biggest difference between Russell and those NBA All-Stars is that he has gotten to the basket less frequently. Harden made an impressive 57.6 percent of his 2-point attempts as a freshman at Arizona State, compared to 49.4 percent for Russell. We obviously don't have any college stats for Ginobili, but he has made 50.0 percent of his 2s in his NBA career. So Russell will have to improve in that regard to justify the comparisons.

Question: Which players have recently emerged as draft sleepers?

Ford: Derrick Marks, G, Sr., Boise State

Marks has been on the NBA radar screen for a while, but he's having a Damian Lillard-type season as a senior, averaging 19.8 PPG and shooting a ridiculous 55 percent from behind the arc. Marks has a very high basketball IQ, is crafty and just plain knows how to put the ball in the basket.

There are obvious concerns for Marks. He's really not much of a point guard, but he stands at just 6-3, making him small for a 2-guard. He's also merely an average athlete. He lacks the explosive leaping ability or speed of other elite prospects in the draft. But after such a terrific season, I'm hearing more and more scouts talking about him as a second-round pick -- and a few mentioning him as a sleeper in the late first round.

What do the numbers say, Kevin? I know they're typically not fond of seniors.

Pelton: They're definitely pretty muted. Marks is projected for 0.1 WARP per season during his first four years in the NBA, which puts him on the fringes of the second round. The biggest thing working against him isn't so much his age but his late development. Even last season, Marks wasn't a particularly efficient scorer. There's a long track record of players who dominate younger college foes as upperclassmen being unable to translate that to the NBA.

Pelton: Anthony Brown, G/F, Sr., Stanford

The numbers actually tell a pretty similar story about Brown, who rates as completely undraftable (minus-1.1 WARP). Besides his late development, a really poor steal rate works against Brown. Yet I still think he's got a chance to enjoy a long NBA career. Every year in May and June, when players like Danny Green are making a big impact in the playoffs, readers ask about possible 3-and-D college prospects. Usually, that means selling them players who are skilled in one area or the other but will have to develop into a well-rounded player. Brown is already there. He's got enough size and length (6-7 with a 6-10 wingspan) to defend either wing spot, and he's made better than 45 percent of his 3s the past two seasons. I see Green and Khris Middleton as possible optimistic outcomes for Brown. What are scouts seeing?

Ford: Brown is definitely a prospect and for all the reasons you stated. In fact, Green is the guy most NBA scouts cite when talking about him. Given his age and low analytics scores, he looks more like a second-round prospect right now but I could see him sneaking into the first round the same way his teammate, Josh Huestis, did last year. He's got good size for his position, is a good athlete and, for the second year in a row, he's shooting better than 45 percent from 3.