Lottery Mock Draft Machine | Race for the No. 1 pick
Opponents scout D'Angelo Russell | Film session: Russell
During the past several seasons, there's been an intense debate among NBA scouts, general managers and fans about who will be the No. 1 pick. This season, so far at least, consensus has replaced debate.
Duke center Jahlil Okafor has been the best player in college basketball and has sat atop our Top 100 since it was first released in July. Back then, his hold on the No. 1 spot was solid. During the past few months, he's tightened his grip considerably.
With the debut of our annual Lottery Mock Draft Machine, Insider spoke to scouts or executives from almost every team projected to be in the draft lottery in an effort to determine their individual draft order for the lottery generator.
As of today, every team I spoke with has Okafor as the No. 1 pick. When there is no clear No. 1 pick, teams tend to focus on team needs instead of overall talent. However, when there's a clear-cut No. 1, needs tend to go out the window.
Both Kevin Pelton and I and Fran Fraschilla have detailed why Okafor remains the odds-on favorite to go No. 1. To put it succinctly, he's the most offensively polished freshman we've seen come along in a decade. While his lack of explosive athleticism and defensive prowess doesn't put him in the same elite company as Anthony Davis or LeBron James as far as draft prospects go, he's a very good No. 1 pick.
The other four players in contention: Emmanuel Mudiay (who dropped a commitment to SMU to play pro ball in China), Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns (see our Ford-Pelton on Towns here), Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell (a Ford-Pelton on Russell is coming Friday) and Latvia's Kristaps Porzingis. All have a case for the No. 1 pick, but none of them have made a case as convincingly as Okafor has so far.
We still have a couple of months of college basketball left to play, and that will be followed by the NBA draft combine and individual workouts, so there's plenty of time for Okafor to lose the spot.
Until then, here's a look at how Okafor would fit on every team in the lottery and which other top prospect is a potential match for each club, along with updated chances of the team winning the lottery:
Minnesota Timberwolves
Chances of winning the lottery: 25 percent
If the Timberwolves win the lottery, they have a chance to become a very, very dangerous team in the next couple of seasons. They could have three No. 1 picks on their roster, and several other elite prospects, as well. The team is very high on second-year big man Gorgui Dieng. However, that won't stop them from drafting Okafor No. 1. As talented as Dieng is, he doesn't possess Okafor's ability to average 20 and 10 in the pros.
The Timberwolves have their backcourt of the future in Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins. Shabazz Muhammad is also looking more and more like a keeper at the small forward position. Their biggest needs are for a power forward (Anthony Bennett is still a big question mark) and a shooter to stretch the floor (Kevin Martin, their only real sharpshooter, will be on the trade block). While Towns and Russell might fit needs a little more than Okafor, I'm told Okafor will be the No. 1 selection if the Wolves win the lottery. A trio of Wiggins-Okafor-Rubio could be very scary for opposing defenses in a few years.
New York Knicks
Chances of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent
The Knicks are starting to play a little better, which makes you wonder if they'll still be this high come draft night. They need to be. The team is devoid of young talent, and if Carmelo Anthony really wants to win a championship in New York, he's going to need to be paired with another elite talent. While the Knicks will soon have a lot of cap space to lure top free agents, landing someone like Okafor would be a major boon to them -- a potential superstar at a midlevel price tag.
The team is also very high on Mudiay, Towns and Russell, but landing the best big in New York since Patrick Ewing is the priority. Okafor is a no-brainer for the Knicks.
Philadelphia 76ers
Chances of winning the lottery: 15.6 percent
The Sixers were heartbroken when they slid to third in the draft last year. They had their heart set on Wiggins, but alas, even if they had finished with the worst record in the league and gotten the Bucks' lottery combinations, they would've still missed out on him.
Now the Sixers are in a bit of a dilemma. They drafted Nerlens Noel in 2013 and Joel Embiid in 2014 -- both of them are centers. Would they really take Okafor, a third center, with the No. 1 pick this year? I'm told the answer is yes. Noel has had a solid rookie season, but there's nothing about his game that's screaming "franchise superstar" yet. Embiid is still recovering from foot surgery, has swelled to 300 pounds, and while incredibly talented, was always a major question mark.
Okafor, on the other hand, is a sure thing. Noel and Embiid always can be used as trade assets if they need to be. Okafor's closest competition right now appears to be Russell. The latter fits a major need for the Sixers and would immediately give Philly a much-needed sharpshooter in the backcourt.
Los Angeles Lakers
Chances of winning the lottery: 11.9 percent
The Lakers must send this pick to the Suns as part of the Steve Nash trade if it falls between Nos. 6 and 30. With Kobe Bryant out for the rest of the season, it looks like Lakers fans can take a deep sigh of relief. Given how tough the West is, and how weak the Lakers' roster is, they should, barring some sort of lottery disaster, finish in the top five.
If they finish with the worst record in the league, Okafor is a slam dunk for them. Their best and only big man is Jordan Hill, and he's a far cry from Okafor. For a team that has a long legacy of elite big men -- from Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to Shaquille O'Neal to Andrew Bynum (OK, not so much Bynum) -- the Lakers would love to have a young front line of Okafor and Julius Randle. Okafor's closest competition I'm told is Mudiay, but it's not that close right now.
Orlando Magic
Chances of winning the lottery: 8.8 percent
The Magic are the second team (after the Sixers) with a hard decision to make here. They just gave Nikola Vucevic an extension that will pay him $48 million during the next four years. Vucevic is still young, playing at an All-Star level, and the team has other needs: primarily, a rim protector and some 3-point shooting.
But that won't stop them from grabbing Okafor, I'm told. "We have a lot of great talent, but we don't have that superstar yet to build around," one Magic source told me in late December. "Okafor could be that guy."
Vucevic will have major trade value if they draft Okafor, or the team can try to split minutes with them. Look for Towns to be the alternative if they fall to No. 2. His shot-blocking ability and his shooting make him an attractive fit in Orlando.
Indiana Pacers
Chances of winning the lottery: 6.3 percent
If the Pacers can somehow find a way to win the No. 1 pick, then the whole Paul George injury this summer could turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Yes, the Pacers lost out on maybe their last window to compete for an NBA championship this season, but adding an elite player such as Okafor to play alongside George could guarantee that they are in the running for a title for the next decade. Most GMs would take that deal.
While the Pacers already have Roy Hibbert at center, it has been well-documented that the team has been open to moving him. Landing Okafor would just expedite the process. Russell is another very attractive option for the Pacers, however. They need a scorer and a shooter in the backcourt, and Russell offers both.
Utah Jazz
Chances of winning the lottery: 4.3 percent
The Jazz have a wealth of young talent right now. Dante Exum, while young, looks like he could be a potential superstar. Rudy Gobert is having a breakout sophomore campaign. Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward have immense talent, as well. And Enes Kanter, Trey Burke and Alec Burks also have potential.
The Jazz don't really need more young talent, but if Okafor comes calling, they'll grab him, avoid having to pay Kanter a huge deal this summer in restricted free agency and put the best young front line in the NBA out there every night. Between Gobert and Favors' defense, and Okafor's offensive skills (think a better version of Al Jefferson, Jazz fans), the Jazz will be set for the next decade. We'll also be watching Russell closely here. His ability to play two positions and shoot the basketball is very attractive. The Jazz, I'm told, like him a lot.
Boston Celtics
Chances of winning the lottery: 2.3 percent
Danny Ainge didn't really want to blow up the Celtics again, but it became clear to him in December that the only way the Celtics were going to get better was to get worse. Landing the No. 1 pick would certainly validate that approach.
While the Celtics have a nice collection of young talent at virtually every position -- Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, James Young, Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller -- they don't really have a superstar. Smart has that potential, but it's not clear if he'll reach it. Okafor has a much clearer path to get there. As talented as both Zeller and Olynyk are, neither has Okafor's ability to dominate the paint.
Sacramento Kings
Chances of winning the lottery: 2.2 percent
The Kings must send this pick to the Bulls if it falls somewhere between No. 11 and 30. I think new owner Vivek Ranadive was convinced this was the season the Kings were sending that pick to the Bulls. Alas, the Kings are in the same place they always are -- stuck in mid- to late-lottery purgatory. The team's two biggest needs are a rim protector and an improved playmaker (Darren Collison is having a good season, but he's small), and an elite point guard would help.
Okafor is neither of those things. Towns is a better choice as a rim protector, and either Mudiay or Russell would be an upgrade over Collison in the long term. But again, the Kings know Okafor is the guy, and they'd either find a way to make it work together or use Okafor as trade bait to upgrade elsewhere.
Detroit Pistons
Chances of winning the lottery: 1.0 percent
The Pistons are now making a push for the playoffs, and they could end up pushing the Hornets, Heat or, less likely, the Bucks out. But assuming they stay in the lottery, they too will be faced with an interesting choice. Their cornerstone for the future is Andre Drummond, who plays the same position as Okafor and has just as much, if not more potential.
While I think Okafor and Drummond could play together offensively, defensively it could be tough. Still, with Greg Monroe heading into unrestricted free agency this summer, the Pistons might just have to swallow hard and figure out how to make a combo of Drummond, Okafor and, if they re-sign him, Monroe work. Mudiay and Russell (especially) are better fits, and if there was a team to pass on Okafor, I think Detroit would be the one.
Denver Nuggets
Chances of winning the lottery: 0.9 percent
The Nuggets drafted a big man in last year's draft, Bosnian Jusuf Nurkic, and he's quietly having a terrific rookie season. Nurkic currently ranks second among all rookies in PER this season, behind Nikola Mirotic.
But that won't stop the Nuggets from taking Okafor No. 1. Nurkic might be underrated, but he's not Okafor. The Nuggets' front line has been offensively challenged for years; Okafor would change that overnight.
Atlanta Hawks (via the Brooklyn Nets)
Chances of winning the lottery: 0.7 percent
The Nets sent the Hawks the right to swap picks as part of the Joe Johnson trade. That trade is now blowing up in Brooklyn's face. But it's a huge boon for the Hawks, especially if the Nets miss the playoffs and then improbably win the lottery.
Al Horford is playing at an All-Star level for the Hawks this season at center, but it's not his natural position in the NBA, and he'd love to move to power forward. A front line of Okafor and Horford would be just awesome, and protect them should Paul Millsap leave via free agency this summer. Russell would be a very strong second choice for the Hawks, however, as would Towns.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Chances of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent
Thunder GM Sam Presti is praying that his team won't actually be here to draft in the lottery. Time is ticking, but the Thunder still have a chance to leapfrog New Orleans and Phoenix to get that last spot in the West. With a healthy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, it's hard to count them out.
Should they end up in the lottery and miraculously win the No. 1 pick, they won't hesitate to grab Okafor. The team made a strong play for a Brook Lopez trade earlier in the month. They love the long-term potential of Steven Adams, but they need more low-post scoring, and the window to win is closing.
New Orleans Pelicans
Chances of winning the lottery: 0.5 percent
The Pelicans must send this pick to the Rockets if it falls between No. 4 and 19 as part of the Omer Asik trade. If they somehow manage to land the No. 1 pick, it will take them all of 1 second to grab Okafor.
Pairing him with Anthony Davis is every opposing coach's worst nightmare -- the top defensive big man in the NBA paired with a player with the tools to be among the best low-post scorers in the league ... yikes. And while I could see an argument for someone like Russell (the Pelicans need shooters and playmakers, not guys like Tyreke Evans who pound the hell out of the ball), the pairing of Okafor and Davis would be too much to pass up.