While the highly touted crop of NCAA freshmen in the 2014 NBA draft didn't entirely live up to the hype in terms of on-court production, another group in the 2014 draft quietly put up big numbers: international prospects. With multiple young players dominating their domestic leagues or succeeding in international competitions, this looks like the best group of overseas players in recent draft memory.
My projections for international players are built by translating performance in European leagues to the NBA equivalent. In the past, I've done that by looking at how players have fared before or after coming from or going to the Euroleague, EuroCup and Spanish ACB from the NBA. This year, I've added the French ProA League and the Adriatic League by using a second layer of translations: how players have performed in these competitions compared to the Euroleague or EuroCup, since the top teams play in both at the same time.
Another important factor in the projections is regressing them to replacement level by position, since the sample sizes are often much smaller for European players than their NBA peers. For example, EuroCup teams that lose in the opening round play just six games, meaning a heavy adjustment is needed for fluky performances. After projecting a year of development based on the performance of players scored as similar by my SCHOENE projection system, I combine age and projected performance to come up with WARP projections that put international players on the same scale as their college counterparts (WARP = wins above replacement player).
The results are striking this year. Four of the top five prospects by WARP in the 2014 draft have never played in the NCAA. Except for Ricky Rubio, all four rate better than any previous European prospect in my database (which includes most international players back through 2006).
TOP 10 INTERNATIONAL PROSPECTS BY WARP (2006-13)
* projected WARP
Here's a look at the top 10 prospects who played internationally this year based on projected WARP.
1. Clint Capela, PF, Chalon (3.4 projected WARP)
Capela's star has lost much of its luster since a disappointing effort at the Nike Hoop Summit in April, but it's worth remembering why he was once considered a likely lottery pick. Before age 20, Capela was one of the best players in the French ProA League and put up similar numbers in Chalon's brief EuroCup stay. He projects as a high-percentage finisher, a plus rebounder and a good shot-blocker from the power forward spot. SCHOENE compares Capela to former No. 3 overall pick Derrick Favors during his rookie season.
2. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Cedevita (3.3 projected WARP)
I'd peg Nurkic as the most interesting prospect in this year's draft. He tore apart the competitive Adriatic League, putting up the league's best per-minute win percentage. Nurkic wasn't nearly as effective in 15 EuroCup games, averaging 15.4 minutes per game and rating below NBA replacement level. Still, just two players in this year's draft (NCAA seniors Doug McDermott and Russ Smith) have higher projected usage rates, and Nurkic figures to be an efficient scorer in large part due to his accurate free throw shooting. If Nurkic can keep up defensively -- he projects to average six fouls per 36 minutes -- he has enormous NBA potential.
3. Dante Exum, PG, Australian Institute of Sport (3.2 projected WARP)
Exum's projection is unlike any other international player because he did not play in a professional league. Instead, I used his performance at the FIBA U-19 Championships last summer to generate a projection for him, as described in my most recent collaboration with Chad Ford.
4. Nikola Jokic, C, Mega Vizura (3.1 projected WARP)
While the numbers are higher on Capela and Nurkic than scouts are, both are likely first-round picks. Jokic, currently No. 51 in Chad Ford's Top 100, could be a bigger steal as a draft-and-stash prospect. During a season when he turned 19 in February, Jokic more than held his own in the Adriatic League. His 20 percent 3-point shooting masked that Jokic shot an impressive 64.4 percent from inside the arc. A skilled ball handler for his position, Jokic will have to bulk up to battle in the paint, but he looks like a good gamble for a couple of years down the road.
5. Kristaps Porzingis, F, Cajasol (1.9 projected WARP)
Ford has described Porzingis as the "hot name" in the draft right now, and his stats project room for growth. In his first year in the ACB, played almost entirely at age 18, Porzingis had an above-average usage rate and was sure-handed with the ball. His efficiency suffered from 33.3 percent 3-point shooting, and he will have to either improve his range or cut the 3 out of his game. One concern: Despite being 6-foot-11, Porzingis rebounds like a small forward.
6. Guillem Vives, PG, Joventut (1.9 projected WARP)
An unheralded prospect who emerged as Joventut's starting point guard, Vives won the ACB's Best Young Player award over Porzingis and 2013 second-round pick Alex Abrines, among others. For some reason, that hasn't translated into much draft buzz, and Vives isn't in Ford's Top 100. At 6-foot-4, Vives is an excellent playmaker and good finisher whose numbers compare favorably to those of Raul Neto, who was drafted in the second round last year at the same age out of the ACB.
7. Dario Saric, F, KK Cibona (1.4 projected WARP)
After Exum, Saric will surely be the second international player taken in the draft, but statistically he grades out as only the third-best prospect in the Adriatic League. To some extent, Saric suffers from the regression process because treating him as a forward brings down his impressive assist rate. Beyond that, while Saric was rightly named Adriatic MVP this season, his play in the EuroCup and last season in the Adriatic wasn't as impressive. However, he was as good as Exum in the U-19 Championships, where he had a better assist rate than Exum, Tyler Ennis and Marcus Smart. So there's plenty of evidence that Saric is a lottery-caliber prospect.
8. Moussa Diagne, C, Fuenlabrada (1.3 projected WARP)
The project center buzz in this year's draft has centered on 7-3 Cape Verde native Walter Tavares, who's moved up to No. 39 in Ford's Top 100. While Tavares, with a 1.0 WARP projection, is an interesting project in his own right, I'd prefer Diagne. The native of Senegal put up relatively similar numbers on a per-minute basis in limited action and is a full two years younger than Tavares.
9. Marcus Eriksson, SG, La Bruixa d'Or (1.3 projected WARP)
The Swedish Eriksson is a terrible rebounder, a nonfactor defensively and a poor finisher. He's a prospect entirely on the strength of his age (19) and shooting ability. Eriksson made 37.5 percent of his 3-pointers and shot 48-of-51 from the free throw line (94.1 percent) during his first real taste of ACB action, and he generated a high number of shots for a specialist. That makes him an intriguing stash option.
10. Rasmus Larsen, PF, La Bruixa d'Or (1.3 projected WARP)
Larsen, the other half of his Spanish team's Nordic connection with Eriksson, is something of a poor man's Porzingis. He has a similarly intriguing combination of frame and skills. Larsen's defensive numbers aren't as good, and he's more prone to turnovers, but he's a solid second-round pick.
Others of note
• I don't have translations for three top 100 prospects: No. 92 Nedim Buza, No. 100 Dmitry Kulagin and most notably No. 37 Artem Klimenko, who played in the second division in Russia.
• French forward Damien Inglis (1.2 projected WARP) is next on the list and also looks like a good second-round value.
• Serbian guard Vasilije Micic (0.6 projected WARP) ranks about the same on my board as on Chad Ford's (No. 41) but is simply overshadowed by the depth of the international class.
• Fellow Serb Bogdan Bogdanovic (0.2 projected WARP) has good size for a combo guard but is projected to make fewer than 40 percent of his 2-point attempts.
• Italian forward Alessandro Gentile (minus-0.9 projected WARP) has no statistical strengths for a small forward and can't be considered a long-term prospect at 21 years of age.