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ESPN Senior Writer- Senior NBA Writer for ESPN.com
- ESPN Insider NBA Draft Analyst since 2002
- Writes ESPN's NBA Draft Top 100 and Lottery Mock Draft
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ESPN Senior Writer- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
Big Board 10.0 | Mock Draft 6.0 | 360-degree Draft Profiles
Chad Ford: We got to see Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid go through intensive workouts this past weekend, giving us yet another dimension to scout them on. Meanwhile, Dante Exum is lying low in Los Angeles.
Wiggins, Parker and Embiid have been scouted as closely as any freshmen could be. Exum, on the other hand? You have three practices at the Nike Hoop Summit, the actual Hoop Summit game (where he played out of position) and the FIBA Under-19 World Championships in Prague, where he dominated a few games but did so outside of the gaze of NBA GMs.
So how do we get a handle on whether Exum matches up to Wiggins, Parker and Embiid?
Kevin Pelton: There's no conversion for Australian high school stats, so I focused the U-19 world championships. Ten of the 12 American players who won gold in the U-19 games played NCAA basketball last season (incoming freshmen Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow being the exceptions), and six players from Canada played in the NCAA.
I was able to compare their performance in the U-19 championships with their translated NCAA stats (using those instead of raw NCAA stats to account for strength of schedule) and come up with U-19 translations. In general, the level of competition appears to be slightly worse than major-conference NCAA basketball.
From then on, I treated Exum's translated stats like any other college prospect. Because the tournament was so short (nine games, or about one-quarter of a typical NCAA season), they get regressed heavily to the mean. Still, Exum projects as an above-replacement player in the NBA next season. In conjunction with his age, that would give Exum the second-best WARP projection in the draft after Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart -- and make Kyrie Irving the only player in my college database with a similarity score of greater than 90 at the same age.
Ford: I'm impressed. It's tough to get objective takes on Exum. And the second-best WARP projection next to Smart -- that's a "wow." Here's the thing: I think many GMs secretly know that. I've talked with a number of the decision-makers at the top of the draft, and when they get to Exum, you can tell they love him. They think he's on par with those other guys. But the battle is against the unknown. It's the challenge of telling your owner, "We're going to take this young kid who's been playing Australian high school basketball over Jabari Parker." Not easy.
But when you look at Exum's ability to create his own shot, his size and speed for his position, and what type of person he is (confident, intelligent, hard-working), it makes sense. There isn't another player quite like him in the draft.
So help them, Kevin. Explain why he's ranked so highly in your WARP projection.
What is he doing that makes him stand out?
Pelton: Conveniently, the top two other point guards in this year's draft, Smart and Tyler Ennis, also played in the U-19 championships. So let's compare their stats:
Smart's athleticism is apparent. He rebounded best from the guard spot and was a terror in the passing lanes as part of Team USA's pressure defense while shooting a high percentage around the rim. When translated, Smart rated as the best player in Prague. Ennis, by contrast, struggled with his outside shot and generated few assists in a shoot-first role.
Exum more than held his own. In particular, his ability to get to the free throw line stood out. He averaged more than seven free throw attempts per game. That ability to create off the dribble figures to translate very well to the NBA. Additionally, Exum took good care of the ball given his role as playmaker. His 1.62 assist-to-turnover ratio was better than those of Smart (1.54), Ennis (1.02) and the other point guard at the U-19 games who might get drafted this year, Serbian Vasilije Micic (1.19).
But the biggest factor in Exum's favor is his age. Although these games were for players 19 and under, Exum wasn't yet 18 years old during the competition. He's 16 months younger than Smart and 13 months younger than Ennis, giving him plenty of room to develop.
Ford: All of that aligns well with the scouting report on Exum. He gets to the line at an elite rate. His athletic testing numbers at the NBA draft combine upheld that notion that Exum and Zach LaVine were the quickest guards in this draft. At his size and length, that's a significant factor in his favor
The assist-to-turnover ratio is also impressive. Because he played out of position at the Nike Hoop Summit (Dennis Schroeder, who was drafted 17th overall by the Atlanta Hawks, played point guard in front of him), there has been some question about his ability to play the point only because GMs didn't get to see it in Portland. This should help a bit to ease that concern.
Exum's one real weakness, shooting, also shows here. But the general feeling among the scouts who have watched him the most is that his shot isn't broken and there's nothing preventing him from improving as time goes on.
Everything you are saying and I've been seeing seems to point to Exum being a legit contender for the No. 1 pick. Anything we should be concerned about?
Pelton: I think Exum's free throw shooting is an issue. He shot 60.9 percent last summer and 66.7 percent at the U-17 championships in 2012, and that's definitely on the low side for a player who will spend so much time at the line.
Beyond that, the biggest concern is simply the limited data. Although there was a correlation between U-19 performance and NCAA play, several players looked different in the college setting over a longer season. Ennis, for example, was far better at Syracuse, and U-19 championships MVP Aaron Gordon wasn't quite that dominant at Arizona. It's also possible that translating how American players performed under unfamiliar FIBA rules gives Exum a boost because he's played the international game his entire life. The other 2014 lottery prospect in Prague, Dario Saric, performed equally as well as Exum -- better than his translated ratings from EuroCup action.
Nonetheless, I'm tempted to put Exum second on my personal draft board behind Joel Embiid.
What are the chances one of Cleveland, Milwaukee or Philadelphia falls in love with him and picks him ahead of the presumed top three picks?
Ford: He's not in the mix for the Cleveland Cavaliers. With Irving firmly embedded at the point and more pressing needs at center and the wing, I think we can safely scratch him from going No. 1.
The Milwaukee Bucks are big fans of Exum. ALthough they like Brandon Knight, they think he's better suited to play the 2-guard and think the combo of Exum and Knight together could be potent. The big question is whether he's a better option than Embiid or Parker. Parker would give them a go-to scorer, while the team thinks strongly that Embiid would be a great fit next to Larry Sanders on the front line. If Milwaukee management had more job security, I think Exum would be its guy. But he might be too big a risk given that new ownership just took control of the team.
The Philadelphia 76ers are Exum fans as well, and if Wiggins is off the board, Exum will be in the mix. They think Exum and Carter-Williams could play together in the backcourt, although it would not be a very good shooting tandem. I think the more obvious fit comes if they trade Carter-Williams, an idea I'm told they have bounced around.
But I think his best bet is with the Orlando Magic. They need a point guard, and an Exum-Victor Oladipo backcourt could be great. Again, there are shooting concerns, but I think at No. 4, the Magic would roll the dice on him.