Position-by-position tiers: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF
When you think about it, pitchers are kind of pre-sorted into tiers through the machinations of their managers and organizations. No. 1 starter, No. 2 starter, opener, bulk guy, LOOGY, closer, set-up man, multi-inning reliever -- these are all inherent parts of the pitching hierarchy in 21st-century baseball.
What's murky about it, perhaps now more than ever, is what the relative value of a pitcher -- whatever his role may be -- is compared to an everyday position player. Increasingly, we also are starting to wonder how much current usage trends, with their deep bullpens, two-times-through-the-order restrictions, and on-and-off-the-disabled-list shuffling, have eaten into the starter's role as the king of the pitching kingdom.
Make no mistake, though. The ace pitcher is not extinct, and while baseball's top pitchers may not carry the on-field value of preceding generations, they still carry plenty of value in both the marketplace and on the field. One hundred years ago, an elite starter like Walter Johnson likely needed to crack 10 WAR (Baseball-Reference.com flavor) to lead the majors, and he often did so. Johnson had seven seasons of at least 10 -- and as many as 15 -- bWAR.
Such seasons have become increasingly rare. The only one we had between 2003 and 2007 was Zack Greinke's dominant 2009 campaign in Kansas City. But we had one last year, with Philadelphia's Aaron Nola reaching 10.5 bWAR. Now, WAR calculations for pitchers vary wildly between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, which didn't rate Nola so highly, but there is no doubt that 2018 was a great year for ace pitchers.
That it happened in the season when the Rays unleashed the "opener" on us was ironic and mysterious at the same time. Even in Tampa Bay, there are mixed signals. On one hand, the Rays contended with waves of mostly faceless relievers and only a fraction of an actual starting rotation. On the other hand, one of the Rays' bona fide starters, Blake Snell, authored the best pitching season in franchise history and won the American League Cy Young Award.
Which direction is all this headed?
The tiers of a starting rotation -- the Nos. 1, 2, etc. -- don't exactly correlate to the tiers of this ranking series. Here, we've tried to rank all players together, so a first-tier player is a first-tier player; his position has nothing to do with it. One byproduct of that is that it actually allows us to get a quick sense of how every team's rotation is set up.
The number in the right column is an overall rating of each club's projected rotation, based on tiers. We gave six points for a Tier I pitcher, five points for Tier II, etc. Then we added up the total points and divided by the number of starters we rated.
Sorry about that, Rangers fans, we probably should have issued some kind of PG-13 warning before you read that Texas' rotation projects to be worse than one an imaginary team could create out of the remaining pool of free agents.
TIER I: FRANCHISE PERFORMERS
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
Position rank: 1
hWAR: 6.66
Sale just keeps getting more and more dominant, with a development pattern that runs headlong into what it figured his career would look like when he broke in with the White Sox. He was so thin, threw so violently, with such a sling-shot motion, that it felt like a matter of time before he broke down. What we didn't see at first is what Red Sox fans have seen for two years now: one of baseball's most fierce competitors.
Sale's 27 starts and 158 innings were career-low totals since he converted to starting pitching in 2012, but he also posted career bests in ERA (2.11), WHIP (0.86) and K/9 (13.5). If not for the time he missed with shoulder inflammation, he would have finally won his first Cy Young Award. Instead, he finished fourth in the voting despite the lack of volume, the seventh straight season in which he has finished in the top seven.
With that, Sale is starting to enter the conversation of the best pitchers to have not won a Cy Young. Actually, he may be the conversation ender. Since 1956 -- the year the late Don Newcombe won the first Cy Young -- here are the pitchers with the best ERA+ figures, at least 200 career starts and zero Cy Young Awards (minimum, 200 career starts):
1. Chris Sale, 144 (7 top-10 finishes)
2. Stephen Strasburg, 129 (2)
3. Curt Schilling, 127 (4)
4. Roy Oswalt, 127 (6)
5. Kevin Brown, 127 (5)
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 6.35
Did you realize that deGrom is already 30 years old? He'll turn 31 on June 19. He was 26 when he broke in with the Mets in 2014, and he has been good every season since, except for last season, when he transcended good to a higher plane of existence, one occupied by few before except perhaps Sidd Finch. After deGrom gave up four runs to the Marlins on April 10, his third outing of the season, he made 29 more starts and never gave up that many runs again.
The numbers are staggering: 217 innings, 269 strikeouts and only 10 homers allowed after giving up 28 in 2017. An ERA of 1.70. Even his much-discussed win-loss record (10-9) is an all-timer: How could a team so consistently screw up starts of that caliber and consistency as last year's Mets did? Who would have thought that in the era of Dark Knight and Thor that it would be deGrom who'd emerge as the best of them all?
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 5.86
Scherzer has such a dominating presence on the mound that it's hard to believe that, in the clubhouse, he's just kind of a goofy guy, in the best way possible. Like deGrom and Sale, Scherzer continues to feast on the launch-angle generation, last season reaching the hallowed 300 strikeout level for the first time. He's now at 159 career wins through his age-33 season. The "Bill James Handbook" now gives Scherzer the best chance of eventually reaching 300 wins of any active pitcher -- 38 percent. Let's see: 141 wins over the next 10 years would take him to age 43. He has averaged 17.3 wins over his past eight seasons. Given his trajectory of unending improvement, baseball may not have seen its last 300-game winner.
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 5.61
Kluber hit his usual benchmarks in 2018, with a league-high 215 innings, 222 strikeouts, a sub-3.00 ERA (2.89) and, for the first time, he won 20 games. Kluber's bWAR (5.9) was roughly in line with his average for the past five seasons (6.5). The two-time Cy Young winner finished third in the voting last season, his fifth-straight top-10 finish. And yet there was a feeling that the shine is off the Klu-bot just a little bit. His velocity was down a touch, and he was less reliant on his fastball. Of course, Kluber's deep arsenal means that he can pull out any number of weapons when he needs to. And if the pitch mix changed, his command didn't, as he led the American League in BB/9 for the second straight season. That said, Kluber's postseason ERA over the past two seasons is 10.64 over three outings, and he was the subject of persistent trade rumors all winter. Were the Indians trying to sell high? Should they? We'll see how Kluber responds this summer. You probably shouldn't bet against him.
Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 5.59
Speaking of 300-game winners, Verlander reached 200 last season, and at 35 has never been better. He has been as good, but not better. Last season's ERA+ (159) was his third-best, his K/9 (12.2) was easily a career high, and his BB/9 (1.6) was a career low. Verlander said more than once that he wants to pitch another 10 seasons. Right now, he shows every indication of being able to do just that. If he does, he'd need to average only 9.6 wins per season to reach 300. In the nearer term, Verlander is at 2,706 career strikeouts, leaving him 294 shy of the 3,000 mark. He struck out a career-high 290 last season, so you can't put it past him to reach the mark in late September.
TIER II: ALL-STARS
6. Carlos Carrasco, Indians (5.00 hWAR); 7. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (4.76 hWAR); 8. Luis Severino, New York Yankees (4.72 hWAR); 9. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (4.72 hWAR); 10. Gerrit Cole, Astros (4.66 hWAR); 11. Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays (4.56 hWAR); 12. Noah Syndergaard, Mets (4.45 hWAR); 13. Trevor Bauer, Indians (4.27 hWAR); 14. James Paxton, Yankees (4.19 hWAR); 15. Patrick Corbin, Nationals (3.91 hWAR); 16. Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks (3.68 hWAR); 17. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (3.65 hWAR); 18. Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates (3.64 hWAR); 19. Chris Archer, Pirates (3.63 hWAR); 20. German Marquez, Colorado Rockies (3.60 hWAR); 21. Walker Buehler, Dodgers (3.57 hWAR); 22. Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees (3.51 hWAR).
Carrasco inked a three-year, $47 million deal in December to remain in Cleveland for the near term. He remains one of the more unsung outstanding pitchers in the game, often overshadowed on his own pitching staff by the award-winning Kluber and the outspoken Bauer. But the presence of that trio of hurlers in the top two tiers is why Cleveland tops the rotation rankings you see above.
The expectations for Kershaw have fallen off a bit, mostly because after three straight seasons of making 27 starts or fewer, you can't reasonably project him with a full season's worth of innings. Last season, his pro-rata performance was down as well, with his diminishing velocity creating more and more problems. And yet Kershaw's ERA was 2.73, which, even when adjusted for the pitching-friendly environment of Dodger Stadium, translates to 42 percent better than league average. Chances are, while we may never see peak Kershaw again, we're not done seeing great seasons from him.
The other thing that stands out in this tier is that with the addition of Paxton, the Yankees have three pitchers on it. The New York rotation might not have anyone who matches up perfectly with Sale, but they'll take their chances in the two games after that.
TIER III: FIRST-DIVISION REGULARS
23. Charlie Morton, Rays (3.42 hWAR); 24. Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals (3.34 hWAR); 25. Dallas Keuchel, free agent (3.28 hWAR); 26. Jack Flaherty, Cardinals (3.18 hWAR); 27. David Price, Red Sox (3.12 hWAR); 28. Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays (3.05 hWAR); 29. J.A. Happ, Yankees (3.05 hWAR); 30. Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs (3.01 hWAR); 31. Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins (2.97 hWAR); 32. Rich Hill, Dodgers (2.95 hWAR); 33. Mike Clevinger, Indians (2.89 hWAR); 34. Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks (2.78 hWAR); 35. Rick Porcello, Red Sox (2.77 hWAR); 36. Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves (2.71 hWAR); 37. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (2.70 hWAR); 38. Jon Gray, Rockies (2.65 hWAR); 39. Luis Castillo, Reds (2.65 hWAR); 40. Zack Wheeler, Mets (2.60 hWAR); 41. Yu Darvish, Cubs (2.59 hWAR); 42. Cole Hamels, Cubs (2.59 hWAR); 43. Nick Pivetta, Phillies (2.58 hWAR); 44. Kevin Gausman, Braves (2.55 hWAR); 45. Jake Arrieta, Phillies (2.50 hWAR); 46. Jose Quintana, Cubs (2.49 hWAR); 47. Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers (2.48 hWAR); 48. Carlos Martinez, Cardinals (2.43 hWAR); 49. Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners (2.41 hWAR); 50. Steven Matz, Mets (2.35 hWAR)
Cubs fans will no doubt note that they have four pitchers rated in Tier III. It seems fitting for where Chicago's staff is at. They have a lot of pitchers who have performed at an All-Star level in the past but have also seen their ups and downs over the past couple of years. Hendricks has probably been the most consistent of the bunch. If you add in aging Jon Lester, who ended up on Tier IV thanks to some pessimistic projections, would you really be surprised if any of Chicago's starters finished on any of the top four tiers? This is both the best and worst thing about this year's Cubs. The names in the rotation look great, but the starters could carry them or bury them.
TIER IV: SECOND-DIVISION REGULARS
51. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers; 52. Kyle Gibson, Twins; 53. Joe Musgrove, Pirates; 54. Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox; 55. Zack Godley, Diamondbacks; 56. Jakob Junis, Kansas City Royals; 57. Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox; 58. Shane Bieber, Indians; 59. Kyle Freeland, Rockies; 60. Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels; 61. Alex Wood, Reds; 62. Joey Lucchesi, San Diego Padres; 63. Kenta Maeda, Dodgers; 64. Andrew Heaney, Angels; 65. Jon Lester, Cubs; 66. Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles; 67. Josh James, Astros; 68. Sonny Gray, Reds; 69. Alex Reyes, Cardinals; 70. Mike Leake, Mariners; 71. Danny Duffy, Royals; 72. Ross Stripling, Dodgers; 73. Tyler Anderson, Rockies; 74. Julio Teheran, Braves; 75. Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox; 76. Brad Keller, Royals; 77. Jhoulys Chacin, Brewers; 78. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers; 79. Jose Urena, Miami Marlins; 80. Lance Lynn, Rangers; 81. Mike Minor, Rangers; 82. Sean Newcomb, Braves; 83. Trevor Williams, Pirates; 84. Tyler Glasnow, Rays
If we included the injured Michael Kopech here, just to give a glimpse at what White Sox fans can look forward to next season when he returns, he'd clock in at No. 67 (by also including the also-absent and injured Lance McCullers Jr. of the Astros, who would clock in at No. 31). Don't forget that there are 150 spots in 30 five-man rotations across the majors, so a No. 67 ranking is pretty close to being a No. 2 starter.
The Reds will be an interesting team. The projections actually like their rotation, with Luis Castillo falling into Tier III and Alex Wood joining Sonny Gray here in Tier IV. In the rotation ratings above, the Reds rate right in the middle of the pack. Given the rotation train wreck that has marked Cincinnati baseball the past few years, that's a tremendous step forward. And the projections don't know about the Reds' new pitching coach, Derek Johnson, who worked wonders with just about every pitcher he got his hands on in Milwaukee, and who has a long-standing relationship with Gray dating back to their days at Vanderbilt. The Reds are one of the sleeper teams this season.
Note: Wednesday's piece is dedicated to Dodger great Don Newcombe, who passed away on Tuesday at 92. Newcombe, one of the Boys of Summer, was baseball's first Cy Young winner in 1956, a season in which he won 27 games and also took the NL's MVP trophy. Newcombe was a steady presence at Dodger Stadium even in his final years, when he could often be seen sitting in the first couple of rows of seats during pregame workouts, often chatting with his friend, Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen. There has been no better example over the past few years of how baseball's generations interconnect. Newcombe was a great pitcher and a true pioneer. He will be missed.