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As our tier ratings series begins to wind down, we come to the outfielders. That means, of course, it's Mike Trout Day.
Trout's status as "best player in the game" has been touted for so long now that it's almost a cliché. It's also a hard notion to challenge. Even in evidence-based estimates like these, his edge is just too large to allow room for a good debate. The Boston Red Sox's Mookie Betts is probably better positioned to challenge Trout's reign than any other player. But my forecasts have Trout with a 1.5 hWAR edge over Betts, which is to say that he's 1.5 hWAR ahead of every other player in the majors.
Betts had a better season than Trout last year. He had a better season than anyone in the majors, a declaration that few Red Sox fans would challenge and probably not many New York Yankees fans would either. However, that's a separate thing from claiming that Betts has usurped Trout's status as the game's best player. That sort of changeover doesn't happen overnight.
I decided to get at this topic by looking at how long best-in-the-game players have generally held the title, and how Trout stacks up historically. He first began to be touted as the game's best way back in 2012 -- his first full season in the majors. That wasn't a consensus feeling right off the bat, but it wasn't long before that idea spread from coast to coast.
Many of those who defended Miguel Cabrera's selection as the 2012 American League MVP -- just because he happened to become baseball's first Triple Crown winner in 45 years -- really didn't argue that Cabrera was better than Trout, just that he had a better year. The same dynamic was in play in 2013, when Cabrera again outpointed Trout for MVP. By that point, however, the idea that Trout was the best player in baseball was firmly embedded and it hasn't really been challenged since.
That means even if we don't anoint Trout for his rookie season, we're still looking at a six-year window (2013 through last season) when he has been baseball's consensus best player. That seems like a long time. To see how that compares historically, I dumped every season's single-season win shares measurement from thebaseballgauge.com into a file and calculated five-year averages. (Note: These numbers vary slightly from the "official" win shares figures as compiled at Bill James Online.)
In other words, for each season, a player is measured by his win shares for the two preceding years, the current year, and the two years after. (Rolling averages is the statistical term.) This gives us a glimpse of who the actual best-in-game players were at a given time, regardless of what challengers might have bobbed up with a career season, while also giving us enough window to mute the effect of fluke/injury seasons. The downside with this size of a rolling window is that we can't get a good measurement until a player's third season. Also, we don't have the year-after and two-years-after measurements for the last two seasons of a player's career, nor for players from 2017 and 2018. Those future seasons haven't happened yet. So we just count the seasons that we have. It might seem odd to consider two seasons that haven't happened when assessing the best player in a given year, but what we're after is a good estimate of true talent level. Hindsight helps sharpen that estimate.
Here is the progression of "Best Player in the Game" estimates for the modern era, based on these five-year win share estimates:
'BEST IN BASEBALL' REIGNS
Cy Young, (3 years, 1899-1901)
Honus Wagner, (7 years, 1902-1908)
Ty Cobb, (3 years, 1909-1911)
Walter Johnson, (2 years, 1912-1913)
Tris Speaker, (1 year, 1914)
Ty Cobb, (6 years, 1912-1917)
Babe Ruth, (13 years, 1918-1930)
Lou Gehrig, (5 years, 1931-1935)
Mel Ott, (2 years, 1936-1937)
Joe DiMaggio, (3 years, 1938-1940)
Ted Williams, (2 years, 1941-1942)
Stan Musial, (2 years, 1943-1944)
Hal Newhouser, (1 year, 1945)
Ted Williams, (5 years, 1944-1948)
Stan Musial, (7 years, 1947-1953)
Mickey Mantle, (7 years, 1954-1960)
Willie Mays, (6 years, 1961-1966)
Hank Aaron, (1 year, 1967)
Carl Yastrzemski, (2 years, 1968-1969)
Pete Rose, (2 years, 1970-1971)
Joe Morgan, (5 years, 1972-1976)
Mike Schmidt, (8 years, 1977-1984)
Tim Raines, (1 year, 1985)
Wade Boggs, (3 years, 1986-1988)
Will Clark, (1 year, 1989)
Barry Bonds, (14 years, 1990-2003)
Albert Pujols, (7 years, 2004-2010)
Miguel Cabrera, (1 year, 2011)
Robinson Cano, (1 year, 2012)
Andrew McCutchen, (1 year, 2013)
Mike Trout, (5 years, 2014-2018)
Based on this method, there was a highly unusual power vacuum between the beginning of Pujols' decline phase and the arrival of Trout as a superstar, though the method might be wrong to not declare Trout the best player by 2013. Still, you get a sense of the place in baseball history that Trout has already established.
This is a bit of regurgitation from the list above, but here are the only players to own a five-year reign as the game's best player: Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Joe Morgan, Mike Schmidt, Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout. This is as Hall of Famey as a list can get.
In case you somehow missed this fact, let's state this emphatically: Every time we get to watch Mike Trout play baseball, we are watching an all-time great. Incredibly, he's still only 27 years old. Perhaps the Angels might want to externalize some of those internal discussions.
LEFT FIELD
TIER I: FRANCHISE PERFORMERS
None.
TIER II: ALL-STARS
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
Position rank: 1
hWAR: 4.91
Soto has all of 447 career plate appearances under his belt, but the forecasting systems are convinced. He ranks as the No. 20 overall best player by hWAR, just five spots out of cracking the first tier. The steepest climb on the player aging curve is generally timed with a hitter's early 20s. Soto didn't turn 20 until after the end of last season, and he will be climbing from a .923 age-20 OPS. The list of players with at least 400 plate appearances and at least a .923 OPS at age 19 or younger: Juan Soto. The closest to him was Mel Ott's .921 OPS in 1928. The thing the projection systems are really biting into isn't just his overall percentages as a rookie -- it's how much of them were due to Soto's freakishly advanced approach at the plate. This guy has superstar written all over him.
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 4.57
OK, first we have to acknowledge that Martinez isn't a left fielder, really. We're not doing designated hitters separately, so we have to put him somewhere. Anyway, Martinez has already had so many iterations in his career that it's easy to forget last season was still only his age-30 season. His first year in Boston was the stuff of dreams, the exact reason why fans get so rankled when their clubs don't pursue big-name free agents. Martinez made a run at a Triple Crown and helped the Red Sox to the World Series title. Not a bad Beantown debut. Martinez topped a 1.000 OPS for the second straight season, becoming the 60th player in history to do that.
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 4.38
The best player in Marlins history had an inconsistent first season in pinstripes. Perhaps it's not always a good thing to be traded to the media capital of the world when you're coming off a 59-homer season; the expectations can be a tad heavy. But we shouldn't lose perspective of the fact that Stanton still hit 38 homers, scored 102 runs and drove in 100. The evidence of his inconsistency can be found in the strikeout column -- Stanton's 211 whiffs are tied for the sixth-most ever and broke the Yankees' team record set by Aaron Judge the season before. He's always going to be a big strikeout guy, but in that huge final Miami season, he struck out 48 fewer times. He can do better than he did in his New York debut. Beyond the whiffs, it's not too early to start watching Stanton's career home run count, which is now at 305 through the age of 28. Only seven players have gone deep more often by that age: Alex Rodriguez (381), Ken Griffey Jr. (350), Jimmie Foxx (343), Eddie Matthews (338), Mickey Mantle (320), Albert Pujols (319) and Mel Ott (306).
Michael Conforto, New York Mets
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 3.74
The 2018 season was a frustrating one for Conforto, who looked like a player on the cusp of greatness in 2017. After a shoulder separation ended his breakout 2017 season, Conforto missed the beginning of last season but ultimately played in a career-high 153 games. With the leap in playing time, his counting numbers all reached personal-best levels, but his OPS fell from .939 to .797 despite the fact that his strikeout and walk rates held steady. Conforto's isolated power fell from .276 to .204 as he was plagued by a rash of ground balls and struggled with his swing. At one point, the Mets were reportedly thinking about farming him out. However, Conforto finished the season with a torrid September, hitting .286/.365/.616. Add it all up, and it sure looks like Conforto's down season was due to residual effects from his shoulder injury. That bodes well for the coming season.
Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 3.70
Benintendi's progress from top prospect to championship regular has been more steady than spectacular. Last season was Benintendi's second full season for the Red Sox and was largely a replica of his first. His strikeout rate improved some (falling from 17 percent to 16), his walk rate was steady (10.6 percent to 10.7) and his isolated power was a little better (going from .154 to .174). His improved percentages can be chalked up to a .301 to .328 uptick in BABIP. His career number in that category is now .321, a product of baseball's 16th-best rate of line drives, and he's likely going to have seasons during which he challenges for a batting title if he sticks with this approach. On defense, people like to say that these Red Sox have three center fielders roaming the asymmetrical outfield of Fenway Park. Maybe, but Benintendi's early-career metrics suggest he's just fine in left field. Besides, when you're playing next to Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts, where else are you going to play?
TIER III: FIRST-DIVISION REGULARS
6. Justin Upton, Angels (3.50 hWAR); 7. Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals (3.34 hWAR); 8. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves (3.26 hWAR); 9. Tommy Pham, Tampa Bay Rays (3.22 hWAR); 10. Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics (2.98 hWAR); 11. Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers (2.60 hWAR); 12. Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox (2.51 hWAR); 13. Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds (2.49 hWAR); 14. Corey Dickerson, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.39 hWAR)
Is this a schizophrenic tier, or what? We've got some big-swinging DH types like Davis and Gallo. Some established left-field prototypes like Upton, Ozuna and Dickerson. A highly underrated performer in Pham. And then there is the upside of Acuna and Jimenez. On the latter front, Jimenez could quite possibly follow Acuna's 2018 path by starting the season in the minors -- but definitely not because of service time concerns -- and end up accepting his league's Rookie of the Year award this fall.
TIER IV: SECOND-DIVISION REGULARS
15. Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs (2.34 hWAR); 16. Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins (2.32 hWAR); 17. David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.30 hWAR); 18. Michael Brantley, Houston Astros (2.12 hWAR); 19. David Dahl, Colorado Rockies (1.95 hWAR); 20. Marwin Gonzalez, free agent (1.87 hWAR); 21. Ryan Braun, Brewers (1.86 hWAR); 22. Brett Gardner, Yankees (1.82 hWAR); 23. Wil Myers, San Diego Padres (1.80 hWAR); 24. Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers (1.76 hWAR); 25. Jeff McNeil, Mets (1.74 hWAR); 26. Domingo Santana, Seattle Mariners (1.59 hWAR)
Is it a stretch to say that, in terms of notoriety, Kyle Schwarber is a star? According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Schwarber ranked in the top 20 of the majors by jersey sales in 2017, though he dropped out the next year. The point is that for all the attention Schwarber has gotten so far in his career, his performance has been ... fine. That's a knock, but a mild one. The expectations we had may have been too high. Going into the 2017 season, the Cubs appeared to be poised for a decade of an epic hitting big three of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Schwarber. We're still waiting on Schwarber to join the party.
The Cubs have worked with Schwarber to become a more complete hitter, one who is harder to shift against, and the results have been mixed. In 2018, the first in which Schwarber hasn't spent at least some time in the minors, he cut his strikeout rate for the second straight season, while upping his already excellent walk rate. This was encouraging, as it demonstrates a heightened ability to balance aggression and his embedded affinity for patience. However, Schwarber's isolated power numbers were down and he still flails against lefties. Just one of Schwarber's 26 homers last season came off a southpaw, and for his career, just six of his 72 homers have come against lefties.
Overall, baseball-reference.com has credited Schwarber with 2.7 career bWAR. He's entering the first of three more seasons of arbitration eligibility. For a building team, that would give Schwarber time to find his ceiling. But the Cubs need to win now. This will be a huge season for Schwarber -- and his jersey sales.
TOP FROM TIER V (ROLE PLAYERS): 27. Nick Martini, Athletics; 28. Christin Stewart, Detroit Tigers; 29. Jay Bruce, Mariners; 30. Kyle Tucker, Astros.
CENTER FIELD
TIER I: FRANCHISE PERFORMERS
Mike Trout, Angels
Position rank: 1
hWAR: 8.78
We've gushed about Trout enough already, so let's get into the negative areas. Searching. ... Searching. ... Searching. ... Item not found.
OK, fine. Two things: There are outfielders who throw better. And, for the love of Abner Doubleday: Mike, would you please stop sliding headfirst?
TIER II: ALL-STARS
Lorenzo Cain, Brewers
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 4.16
NBA teams keep information on "makeup" as part of their data management systems and it seems likely that at least some, if not all, baseball teams do the same. What exactly would be in that module is unknown to me. Psychological testing? Personality profiling? Rorschach tests? I have no idea. Maybe it just consists of testimonials from those who have known the player in question. In any event, I've often wondered if there is an advantage to matching the personality of a player with a certain kind of baseball market. It may not be an issue we can actually study.
Last year, three of the Brewers' biggest additions were Cain, Christian Yelich and Mike Moustakas. All are quiet, mild-mannered individuals who had spent their big league careers out of the glare of big media markets. Yelich and Moustakas are from Southern California, and they still live there in the offseason, but you'd never know it from talking to them. They wouldn't be out of place in my hometown in Iowa. Insofar as you can tell such things from talking to a person in a locker room, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of Hollywood in their respective makeups. Cain is much the same. He is from Florida, and in the offseason he lives in Norman, Oklahoma. All of these players flourished in Milwaukee, baseball's smallest market. Would they have done as well in, say, a Mets uniform?
I don't know the answers, and I realize that generally speaking, money is going to trump any of these factors when a free agent is looking for a place to land. But Cain and Milwaukee are a perfect fit, just as was Cain and Kansas City.
George Springer, Astros
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 3.81
After two straight 5-WAR seasons, Springer fell to 2.7 bWAR in 2018. Springer split his starts between center and right field and his metrics for the former were down, with a final tally of minus-5 defensive runs saved. Still, the most glaring decline came in the power department. His homer count fell from 34 to 22 in virtually the same number of at-bats, and his isolated power figure dropped from .239 to .169. In August, Springer slid into the second-base bag at Dodger Stadium, spraining a thumb and putting him out of action for 12 days. To that point, he had 19 homers and a .436 slugging percentage. After Springer returned, he hit only three more homers and slugged .425. The injury didn't help, but Springer was headed for a down season anyway. Five years into his big league career, he has established himself as an All-Star player, a clutch performer, a clubhouse leader, and as one of the most entertaining players to watch in the game. However, the flair with which he plays can ebb into the territory of recklessness. I get the reason why players dive into bases, but for me, the downside outweighs the upside.
TIER III: FIRST-DIVISION REGULARS
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 3.34
The news that Blackmon would slide over to an outfield corner and Ian Desmond would take his place as Colorado's center fielder didn't land in time for me to rearrange the rankings. From a metrics standpoint, it was logical move. Blackmon has always posted negative runs saved figures in center. However, given that the outfield of Coors Field has enough acreage to support the estate of a feudal lord, it has always been hard to digest those numbers. However, last season, the figure slipped to minus-28 in terms of DRS, while UZR had him at minus-12.3. There isn't a lot of mystery in numbers that poor. On the other hand, Blackmon has played more than 1,500 innings on an outfield corner during his career, during which he has compiled plus-5 DRS. According to baseball-reference.com, Blackmon posted 3.9 offensive bWAR last season, but he gave back 2.7 of that on defense. He's working on a streak of three straight seasons of an OPS+ of 115 or better, so the defensive move could prop up his value for much of the duration of his contract. Of course, the gambit only works if Desmond can hold up his end in center field.
Starling Marte, Pirates
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 3.22
Over the past six seasons, Marte has put up an average of 4.2 bWAR, a figure that would be higher if not for an 80-game suspension in 2017 for a PED violation. As he enters his age-30 season, we pretty much have to accept that Marte is what he is -- a just-a-little-better-than-average defender at an up-the-middle position and a plus (but not elite) bat. There are far worse fates. After stealing 21 bases in 25 attempts in 2017, he fell back into his old pattern last season, swiping 33 bags but getting caught an National League-high 14 times. Marte is entering the last guaranteed year of his team-friendly contract, with the Pirates holding team options for 2020 and 2021. If Marte keeps doing what he has been doing, it's hard to imagine the Bucs won't exercise those options.
OTHER TIER III: 6. Aaron Hicks, Yankees (2.66 hWAR); 7. Harrison Bader, Cardinals (2.35 hWAR).
So far in his young career, Bader has saved runs at a rate of 25 DRS per 162 games. He's a flash in the field and on the bases, plays hard, and generally does a lot of things that fans love to watch. His offense has plenty of room to grow, however. He's got decent pop but thus far has proved to be helpless against breaking and off-speed stuff. Bader needs to improve his ability to get the ball in play to reach his ceiling. Still, his defense and speed will keep him in the majors for quite a few years. Cardinals fans are hoping for the same impact in the offense department.
TIER IV: SECOND-DIVISION REGULARS
8. Kevin Kiermaier, Rays (2.31 hWAR); 9. Ender Inciarte, Braves (2.30 hWAR); 10. A.J. Pollock, Dodgers (2.25 hWAR); 11. Odubel Herrera, Phillies (2.06 hWAR); 12. Ramon Laureano, Athletics (2.06 hWAR); 13. Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox (2.02 hWAR); 14. Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (1.99 hWAR); 15. Mallex Smith, Mariners (1.80 hWAR); 16. Byron Buxton, Twins (1.78 hWAR); 17. Victor Robles, Nationals (1.71 hWAR); 18. Nick Senzel, Reds (1.58 hWAR); 19. Ian Happ, Cubs (1.49 hWAR)
Kiermaier, Inciarte, Bradley, Buxton ... some of the game's elite defenders fall into this tier. There also are two players whose seasons will seem to be inextricably tied to Bryce Harper, mostly because they aren't him. Pollock is one of those, as the Dodgers were viewed as a likely landing spot for Harper but opted for the oft-injured Pollock during free agency. Pollock is an All-Star when he can stay on the field; he just hasn't done that often enough the past couple of years. The other Harper reminder is, of course, Robles, who will try to become the second straight Nationals rookie outfielder to burst onto the scene. Can Robles be Washington's 2019 version of Juan Soto?
TIER V (ROLE PLAYERS): 20. Leonys Martin, Indians; 21. Scott Schebler, Reds; 22. Adam Jones, free agent; 23. Manuel Margot, Padres; 24. Kevin Pillar, Blue Jays; 25. Delino DeShields Jr., Rangers; 26. Ian Desmond, Rockies; 27. Albert Almora, Cubs; 28. Billy Hamilton, Royals; 29. Michael Taylor, Nationals; 30. Cedric Mullins, Orioles; 31. Lewis Brinson, Marlins; 32. Juan Lagares, Mets; 33. Mikie Mahtook, Tigers; 34. Steven Duggar, Giants.
RIGHT FIELD
TIER I: FRANCHISE PERFORMERS
Mookie Betts, Red Sox
Position rank: 1
hWAR: 7.23
It all came together for Betts in 2018: batting title, AL-leading totals in runs and slugging, an All-Star appearance, Gold Glove No. 3, Silver Slugger No. 2, and AL MVP No. 1. And, of course, he led Boston to its fourth World Series win in 15 years. Betts posted 10.9 bWAR last season. The only Red Sox players with that many in a season have been Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Cy Young, Pedro Martinez and Lefty Grove. And, no, Babe Ruth isn't on the list. Betts, who may be the game's best defender, is the player best positioned to usurp Trout's title as Best Player in Baseball, though even he might not be up to the task.
Bryce Harper, free agent
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 5.22
It's Feb. 18, 2019, as I go back through all of these words, and it's beyond amazing that the Harper info remains up to date. He is, indeed, a free agent. I don't know if Harper has a Frank Robinson-like penchant for showing doubters what's what, but if he does, look out. He has posted one 10-WAR season. He might go to 15 just to spite the 29 owners who didn't sign him.
Christian Yelich, Brewers
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 5.16
Yelich went from the third-best outfielder on a team playing in an indifferent market to the best player in the National League in a city that went mad with baseball and quickly adopted him as a folk hero. Yelich set the league on its ear in 2018, hitting .326/.402/.598 with 36 homers, 110 RBIs, 118 runs, 22 steals and plus-5 runs in the field. And, as you well know, he pulled away in a tight race to win the NL's MVP award. As Milwaukee chased the Cubs down in September, Yelich got hotter as the Brewers drew closer. He had a 1.313 OPS in September, a 1.219 mark for the second half overall and went 11-for-24 with five homers and 17 RBIs over Milwaukee's final eight games. That is what we call a career season. What can Yelich possibly do for an encore?
Aaron Judge, Yankees
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 5.13
Judge's broken wrist really put a drag on the 2018 season and perhaps overshadowed the fact that in most ways he proved his 52-homer rookie season was nothing close to a fluke. So far in his Yankees career, Judge's 162-game averages are 46 homers, 105 RBIs, 118 runs and 117 walks to go with a .963 OPS. That said, Judge's home-road splits are kind of eye-popping. He has played 149 games at home and 145 on the road, so we can look at those splits kind of like season stat lines. His Yankee Stadium line is Ruthian: .322/.444/.693, with 54 homers, 118 RBIs and 127 runs. His road line is more Kingman-esque: .226/.353/.440, 29 homers, 73 RBIs. There's not a park that can hold Judge, so there is no reason this disparity has to continue.
TIER II: ALL-STARS
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 4.10
Bellinger played in 162 games last season, though the Dodgers played 163, so he didn't quite get into every game. His defensive versatility, with plus fielding at all the outfield spots and excellent glove work at first base, makes him extremely valuable to a team that likes to move around the waybills as much as the Dodgers do. Bellinger gets into every game, but he doesn't play the entirety of every game. Not by a long shot.
Here's one illustration of just how odd it is how the Dodgers use Bellinger: Only four players have ever played in at least 162 games and had fewer plate appearances than Bellinger's 632 last year. Those four were all no-hit, all-field middle infielders: Bobby Knoop, Ed Brinkman, Alfredo Griffin and Alcides Escobar.
Here's another illustration: Bellinger was ostensibly a 1B/CF last year. If his baseball cards were to get very specific, that's what they'd put for his position. There just haven't been many seasons in which a player has legitimately been a 1B/CF. According to baseball-reference.com, here are the only two players to have appeared in at least 70 games at those two positions in the same campaign: Bellinger (4.2 bWAR, 2018) and Nick Swisher (-0.2 bWAR, 2008). That's it.
Mitch Haniger, Mariners
POS. RANK: 6
hWAR: 3.62
Haniger's timing isn't the best, through no fault of his own. First, he was dealt to Seattle as part of the deal that sent Taijuan Walker to Arizona, and Haniger missed the Diamondbacks' playoff run in 2017. Then last year, he timed his career breakout (6.1 bWAR) with the Mariners' subsequent pivot into a rebuild. Yet he's so good that Jerry Dipoto won't trade him, and that guy has traded about 90 percent of all the players who have ever appeared for the M's, a couple of Seattle Pilots to boot. Haniger has become one of baseball's most unappreciated stars and one of the game's best bang-for-the-buck performers. In other words, he is oh-so-tradable.
TIER III: FIRST-DIVISION REGULARS
7. Shohei Ohtani, Angels (3.49 hWAR); 8. Nelson Cruz, Twins (3.47 hWAR); 9. Brandon Nimmo, Mets (3.33 hWAR); 10. Adam Eaton, Nationals (2.98 hWAR); 11. Yasiel Puig, Reds (2.64 hWAR); 12. Andrew McCutchen, Phillies (2.37 hWAR)
We have learned that, for one season at least, McCutchen was baseball's best player. Who said the Phillies haven't made a real free-agent splash? As for Ohtani, where would I have put him had he been pitching this season? He would have been listed in both places. Also, check out the position rankings of Nimmo (No. 9) and then recall where Conforto was among left fielders (No. 4). If the Mets get healthy and consistent seasons from both, they could have one of baseball's top corner outfield combos.
TIER IV: SECOND-DIVISION REGULARS
13. Nick Castellanos, Tigers (2.27 hWAR); 14. Brian Anderson, Marlins (2.25 hWAR); 15. Stephen Piscotty, Athletics (2.05 hWAR); 16. Randal Grichuk, Blue Jays (1.97 hWAR); 17. Max Kepler, Twins (1.84 hWAR); 18. Gregory Polanco, Pirates (1.76 hWAR); 19. Franmil Reyes, Padres (1.74 hWAR); 20. Kole Calhoun, Angels (1.64 hWAR)
Reyes is the young powerhouse who had such an unusual rookie season, a stat line that in a sad way kind of typified the style of baseball being played in 2018. The 6-foot-5, 275-pound powerhouse impressed with his power (16 homers in 87 games) and even showed some BABIP skills, ringing up a .280 average. He struck out a ton but did draw 24 walks and posted a respectable .340 on-base percentage. Not bad for a 22-year-old who spent the 2017 season at Double-A. But Reyes also drove in just 31 runs. I mean, I know we no longer look at RBIs as an evaluative number, and I'm not doing so here. But 31 RBIs on 16 homers?
It's just a thing that happens now. Here are the fewest RBIs in a season for a player with 16 or more homers:
31 (tie): Scott Hairston, 2008; Franmil Reyes, 2018
34: Steve Balboni, 1990
35 (tie): Todd Hundley, 2002; Jake Marisnick, 2017
TIER V (ROLE PLAYERS): 21. Josh Reddick, Astros; 22. Nick Markakis, Braves; 23. Hunter Renfroe, Padres; 24. Jose Martinez, Cardinals; 25. Jason Heyward, Cubs; 26. Nomar Mazara, Rangers; 27. Steven Souza Jr., Diamondbacks; 28. Carlos Gonzalez, free agent; 29. Avisail Garcia, Rays; 30. Jorge Soler, Royals; 31. Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers; 32. Austin Meadows, Rays; 33. Dexter Fowler, Cardinals; 34. Daniel Palka, White Sox; 35. Jon Jay, White Sox; 36. Tyler Naquin, Indians; 37. Brett Phillips, Royals; 38. Alex Verdugo, Dodgers; 39. Jose Bautista, free agent; 40. Raimel Tapia, Rockies; 41. Jorge Bonifacio, Royals.