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For shortstops, the 2010s have been the decade of the very good, but not the very great. The next decade might be a different story altogether.
Some of this is a matter of timing. The great shortstops of the 2000s, like Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, had moved to other positions or retired by the middle of the current decade. Meanwhile, the great young crop of shortstops we have in the game right now, such as Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, didn't arrive until after that. So when you look at the overall leaderboard of top 2010s shortstops, it's underwhelming, historically speaking.
The WAR leaderboards of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs tell somewhat different stories because of their differing methods for measuring defense. We'll go with Fangraphs for this section. Here are the top five shortstops of the decade by fWAR:
BEST SHORTSTOPS OF 2010s
1. Troy Tulowitzki, 27.8
2. Elvis Andrus, 23.7
3. Andrelton Simmons, 23.4
4. Francisco Lindor, 22.8
5. Jose Reyes, 21.8
With one year to go in the decade, the career trajectories of those on the list suggest that it's likely that Simmons or Lindor will end up on top. Tulo could change that with a healthy season, but he has totaled just 4.1 WAR over the past two seasons. Lindor's 2019 Steamer projection (6.5 fWAR) is tops for the position. He had 7.6 last season and is certainly capable of doing as well or better this time around. Still, it seems likely that the decade leader will wind up with no more than 30 fWAR. Here's how that compares with the leaders of other decades:
SS fWAR LEADERS BY DECADE
2000s: Alex Rodriguez, 75.4
1990s: Barry Larkin, 50.4
1980s: Robin Yount, 50.0
1970s: Bert Campaneris, 30.4
1960s: Jim Fregosi, 34.8
1950s: Ernie Banks, 39.7
1940s: Lou Boudreau, 61.1
1930s: Arky Vaughan, 52.9
1920s: Joe Sewell, 39.9
1910s: Art Fletcher, 40.8
1900s: Honus Wagner, 90.4
Yeah, 30 fWAR is a pretty low total for a decade leader. Through last season, the top 10 shortstops of the decade have averaged 3.01 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. The only decade with a leaner leaderboard was the 1970s, when too many managers selected glorified designated fielders for the position. In a way, that's kind of what has happened in the 2010s. While there have been some tremendous offensive shortstop seasons in the decade, overall the position has been heavily tilted toward defense.
To illustrate this, we'll once again turn to Fangraphs. Let's look at the contributions of each decade's top 10 shortstops in terms of offensive runs and defensive runs above average per 600 plate appearances:
Decade: Off., Def.
2010s: 2.28, 7.13
2000s: 11.90, 4.69
1990s: 8.86, 10.11
1980s: 5.16, 10.34
1970s: -7.59, 13.86
1960s: 1.09, 10.72
1950s: 4.22, 9.27
1940s: 5.15, 14.56
1930s: 5.35, 12.18
1920s: -2.79, 14.38
1910s: 2.65, 13.05
Here you can see how heavily teams focused on shortstop defense in the 1960s and, especially, in the 1970s. And you can see how far the pendulum swung the other way in the 2000s. This decade, however, has seen something of a return to the old ways. There have been exceptions. Tulowitzki has been a very balanced player, just as Lindor is now. Reyes' value, when he was producing it, was driven mostly by offense. Same deal with Asdrubal Cabrera. By and large, though, defense-first players such as Simmons, Andrus, Brandon Crawford and Jhonny Peralta have better typified the position in the 2010s.
But if you focus on the past couple of years, it sure looks like we're entering a new golden age for shortstops. According to Baseball-Reference.com, there have been 19 seasons since 1901 that have featured at least four shortstops with at least 5 bWAR. That list includes each of the past two seasons, though the list for each campaign is composed of different names. And all of those 5-win shortstops have been young: Lindor (twice), Simmons (twice), Manny Machado, Correa, Seager and Trevor Story.
Not only are those players on the right side of 30, but they all are average or better with both the glove and the bat. That includes Simmons, whose career OPS+ was 86 during his first five seasons but has been at 105 over the past two campaigns. That's pretty good for a player who statistically has been the top overall defender of the decade.
If we did indeed pass through a bit of depression in terms of elite shortstops this decade, it looks like we've now moved beyond it. If you want to see some of the best young stars of today's game, look no further than the 6-hole.
TIER I: FRANCHISE PERFORMERS
Francisco Lindor, Indians
Position rank: 1
hWAR: 5.62
Lindor was a touted prospect coming up through the Cleveland system, rating as the Indians' No. 1 prospect by Baseball America during the two years before he broke into the majors at age 21 in 2015. While BA loved Lindor, its analysts generally ranked him behind other shortstop prospects such as Correa, Seager and even Addison Russell. This line plucked from his 2015 write-up probably explains why: "Power will never be Lindor's forte, though he did show more of it last season than ever before."
Lindor hit six homers in Class-A at 18, then followed that up with just two across two levels at age 19. That "he did show more of it" season was his age-20 campaign, which he spent between Double-A and Triple-A, and he homered 11 times. At 21, he was summoned by the Tribe after hitting two Triple-A homers, then added 12 more at the big league level. That number went to 15 in 2016, soared to 33 and reached an astounding 38 last season. This is not to pick on Baseball America. It's to show just how amazing Lindor's development has been.
This, folks, is how a slick-fielding, 190-pound shortstop with plus base-stealing ability and an excellent approach at the plate becomes a top-10, Tier I performer. And he's still only 25. The list of shortstops who have hit more than 38 homers in a season is, well, short: Alex Rodriguez, Ernie Banks, Rico Petrocelli and Vern Stephens. The record, A-Rod's 57 in 2002, is surely out of reach for Lindor. But then again, with him, we've learned to never ever say never.
TIER II: ALL-STARS
Manny Machado, free agent
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 4.72
The Manny without a team may not play shortstop this season. Heck, for all we know, he may not play anywhere. But if Machado does find a home for 2019 and that team allows him to continue as a shortstop, he'll be one of the game's best. Last season, Machado's 37 home runs tied him with Story for second place among shortstops, behind Lindor, and only Lindor eclipsed him in terms of fWAR (6.2). Machado has now posted OPS+ totals of 130 or better in three of the past four seasons. With his strike zone indicators continuing to trend in the right direction, Machado figures to enter into another MVP conversation or two before his prime seasons are complete.
There was a lot of talk about Machado's ugly defensive metrics during his first full big league season at short before he was traded from Baltimore to the Dodgers. But in Los Angeles, those numbers were so different it hardly seems like they could have been posted by the same player. According to Baseball-Reference.com, he was at minus-18 runs saved before the trade and plus-5 after it. Which is the real number? It's likely somewhere in between, especially as he gets older and, presumably, a little slower. It's also likely that defensive runs saved is a less-than-perfect measure. But in a way, that's why it's so befuddling that he has lingered so long on this winter's market. That bat can play anywhere, and at shortstop, it's generational.
Corey Seager, Dodgers
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 4.64
Seager's 2018 season was a washout, with elbow surgery clipping it after just 26 games. I have one lasting image of his too-short campaign. During spring training at Camelback Ranch, there was a day when he was finally supposed to test out his ailing elbow by playing a B game on a back field. Because the Dodgers needed Seager to ramp up his at-bats as well, they decided to let him lead off every inning for his team of low-level minor leaguers. I barely made it to the field in time to see him step to the plate for his first game action all spring, and I saw him promptly drive one out to right field. The message was clear: The kid can hit. Let's hope that beginning with this season, his body will hold up so he can do it all summer long.
Carlos Correa, Astros
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 4.54
Any of the top-four-ranked players at shortstop can leap into MVP contention this season. Correa might have won it in 2017 if he hadn't torn a ligament in his left thumb. Heck, he might have won it last year if he hadn't battled back trouble all season. But the bottom line is that Correa has now missed 105 games over the past two seasons, and last year's malady sapped his numbers. Correa's elite .941 OPS of 2017 dropped to .728. Correa is a surefire franchise player when healthy, and he's entering into his last two arbitration seasons. If Correa is right physically, this is not a guy American League pitchers will want to see at the dish this season.
Trea Turner, Nationals
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 4.27
Turner has not reached that 5-WAR threshold mentioned above, but as you can see from this projection, he's more than capable of crashing that particular party. One of the game's most athletic players, he has stolen 89 bases in 106 attempts over the past two seasons and paced the National League with 43 thefts in 2018. The key for Turner is getting on base, and while his .344 on-base percentage last season was above average, you'd like to see him amp up the plate discipline another notch. With solid pop off the bat -- 19 homers last season -- and superior baserunning skills, a version of Turner whose walks total begins to approach his strikeouts becomes an elite performer. He is trending in the right direction in both categories.
TIER III: FIRST-DIVISION REGULARS
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
Position rank: 6
hWAR: 3.48
Bogaerts enters his last season before free agency as the latest world champion Red Sox shortstop. The others: Heinie Wagner, Everett Scott, Orlando Cabrera, Julio Lugo and Stephen Drew. Scott was a fixture during the Babe Ruth years, but suffice to say, none of the title-winning Sox shortstops had as much impact on the franchise as Bogaerts. Rumors in late January were that Boston was talking about an extension with him. If that happens, Bogaerts has a chance to enter the conversation as Boston's best ever at the position, among the title winners and everyone else.
Perhaps it's a long shot, but Bogaerts is still only 26. He has averaged 4.4 fWAR over the past four seasons and he's in his theoretical prime. Let's say he inks a five-year extension and matches his average from the past four seasons. That would tack another 21.8 fWAR to his current career total of 17.6, bringing him to 39.4, and he'd still be only 31. That 39.4 total would match Rico Petrocelli's career team record for shortstops, but Petrocelli played mostly third base over the last half of his career. The real franchise leader is Nomar Garciaparra, who was at 38.9 fWAR when he was traded to the Cubs in 2004.
The wrench in the works is Bogaerts' consistently poor defensive metrics. He's at minus-40 DRS over the past three seasons alone. At some point, doesn't that become a problem?
Trevor Story, Rockies
Position rank: 7
hWAR: 3.43
Story just won't go away. After his stunning 2018 season, it's likely that no one in Colorado wants him to. When Story took over at short for the Rockies in 2016, it seemed likely it was as a stopgap, filling the time between the end of Tulowitzki's excellent tenure at the position and the eventual arrival of Brendan Rodgers. Though his first two years as Colorado's regular at the position were solid, it still kind of felt like we were just waiting on Rodgers. It appeared that Story had assumed a certain type, not unusual for a 2010-style ballplayer. He could hit the ball a long way when he connected, but he didn't make contact very often, leading the NL with 191 strikeouts in 2017. But Story's defense was outstanding and he didn't make any money, so you figured the Rox could bide their time with him until Rodgers matured.
Then 2018 happened. First, over the winter, Bud Black declared that he was thinking of using Story as his cleanup hitter. What? A .239-hitting, 191-strikeout cleanup hitter? It's no surprise that Black knew best. Story cut his strikeout rate from 34.4 percent to 25.6, started hitting more line drives without sacrificing power and ended up with 37 homers, 108 RBIs, a .291 average and 27 stolen bases. In 61 games out of the cleanup spot, he posted a .960 OPS with 52 RBIs. On top of all that, Story once again was better than average in the field, finished in the top 10 of NL MVP balloting and led the circuit with a 31.2 power-speed score.
Rodgers is still high on the prospect lists and could ascend to Denver as soon as this April. But if it happens, he won't be replacing Story. He'll be playing next to him.
Andrelton Simmons, Angels
Position rank: 8
hWAR: 3.36
Simmons is a defensive machine. He has posted at least 18 defensive runs saved in each of his seven big league seasons, with an average of 26.4. It's kind of ridiculous. He has won four Gold Gloves, including two straight. He's one of just 10 shortstops to win that many, and it appears he's a long way from being done. He's not in the Ozzie Smith-Omar Vizquel-Luis Aparicio-Mark Belanger class just yet. But he's not far from being the best of the tier just below them, and he's only 29.
But even while Simmons has remained elite with the glove, he's continued to improve at the plate. He'll never be great with the bat, but he's pulled off the nifty dual feat of becoming a nominal power threat while morphing into -- by 2018 standards -- a guy who is nearly impossible to strike out. Simmons whiffed just 44 times in 600 plate appearances last season while hitting 11 homers. He's homered 25 times over the past two seasons after hitting a total of 15 in the three seasons prior to that. And while that low strikeout total isn't remarkable from a historical standpoint, he's the only player over the past two seasons to reach double digits in homers while striking out fewer than 50 times.
At one point last season, Simmons went 90 straight plate appearances without striking out. According to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, Simmons struck out at just 35 percent of the league rate. The last player to do better while hitting double-digit homers was A.J. Pierzynski in 2004.
Jean Segura, Phillies
Position rank: 9
hWAR: 2.81
I kind of have my fingers crossed for Segura now that he's in Philadelphia. There's no tangible reason to worry, mind you. He has hit .300 or better three seasons in a row, reaching double digits in homers each season, stealing at least 20 bags and finishing with at least a 111 OPS+. Over the past six seasons, only five shortstops have exceeded Segura's 16.0 fWAR. Yet the Phillies will be his fourth team in five seasons. He's been traded for Zack Greinke, Chase Anderson, Ketel Marte, Taijuan Walker, J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana, among others. It's an impressive list. But if his performance doesn't hold up for the Phillies, and the Phils don't make another splash signing, those famously unruly folks in "The City of Brotherly Love" might note only that he's not Manny Machado.
Paul DeJong, Cardinals
Position rank: 10
hWAR: 2.75
DeJong was rewarded for a terrific rookie season in 2017 with a six-year, $28 million early extension during 2018's spring training. In most ways, his second season was a facsimile of his first. That's not necessarily a good thing for a 25-year-old. DeJong's strike zone numbers improved, but he drove the ball less consistently. He hit well situationally, but he tended to get long with his swing when the bases were empty and struggled with velocity. Overall, he dropped 44 points from his rookie batting average. It's nothing to be alarmed about, but on a Cardinals team looking to return to the playoffs after a three-year absence, DeJong will be looked to for a little more consistency.
The best news was that DeJong's defense continued to hold up nicely at short. His 14 defensive runs saved tied Lindor for third in all of baseball. Don't forget, this is a player whom the Redbirds didn't shift to shortstop until he reached Double-A in 2016. Now he's part of a top double-play tandem with defensive ace Kolten Wong. With Paul Goldschmidt joining the group in 2019, St. Louis should feature one of the better defensive infields in baseball this season. It's been awhile since the Cardinals have been able to make that claim.
OTHER TIER III: 11. Elvis Andrus, Rangers (hWAR: 2.42); 12. Marcus Semien, Athletics (hWAR: 2.37)
Andrus was injured for a good chunk of last season with a fractured elbow, and he posted his lowest OPS+ (76) since 2010. He's still a plus defender, but at 31, you have to start wondering how well he fits with a Rangers squad that is still in the middle phase of an uncertain rebuild. Maybe it doesn't matter. With an average of $15 million coming his way over the next four seasons, Texas might not be able to swallow enough cash to move him. However, if the end result is that a well-regarded veteran ends up shepherding in the next generation of first-division Rangers, then so be it.
TIER IV: SECOND-DIVISION REGULAR: 13. Brandon Crawford, Giants (2.17 hWAR); 14. Adalberto Mondesi, Royals (2.15 hWAR); 15. Jorge Polanco, Twins (2.12 hWAR); 16. Willy Adames, Rays (1.96 hWAR); 17. Dansby Swanson, Braves (1.61 hWAR); 18. Jose Peraza, Reds (1.55 hWAR)
Crawford remains a solid big league shortstop and a wizard with the glove, but he's not the reason this is an exciting tier. Swanson has upside, and Adames is well-regarded even by an organization that may already be champing at the bit for a rapid ascension by Wander Franco. Polanco just landed a five- to seven-year extension from the Twins, the length dependent on a couple of club options.
But let's face it, the guy to watch from this group is Mondesi, who changed his name from Raul Jr. and is one of the game's brightest young talents. It kind of happened out of nowhere. After two partial seasons for the Royals at the big league level, he was hitting just .181 over 209 plate appearances. Last year, in just 75 games, he hit .276 with 14 homers and a .498 slugging percentage, while stealing 32 bases. Double those numbers and, wow, that's an impressive 22-year-old. Even more than that, Mondesi is just electric to watch. The bad news is that he struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances and seven times for every walk he drew. Nevertheless, Mondesi may be the most exciting combination of young power and speed in the game.
TOP FROM TIER V: 19. Addison Russell, Cubs; 20. Lourdes Gurriel, Blue Jays; 21. Jose Iglesias, free agent; 22. Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks; 23. J.P. Crawford, Mariners; 24. Tim Anderson, White Sox; 25. Amed Rosario, Mets; 26. Orlando Arcia, Brewers; 27. Freddy Galvis, Blue Jays; 28. JT Riddle, Marlins; 29. Jordy Mercer, Tigers; 30. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres.
There are a number of players in this tier with a lot to prove, for a wild variety of reasons. But let's stick with upside and highlight Keith Law's No. 1 prospect. To quote my colleague, who has seen Tatis far more often than I (but less than my uncle, who works in the minor leagues and similarly raves about Tatis), "Tatis looks like a younger Manny Machado, but he is stronger than Machado was at the same age, and there are similarities between their games across the board." As well as the rebuilding plan seems to be going for the Chicago White Sox, there is this sad fact: Less than three years ago, the ChiSox dealt Tatis to the Padres for James Shields.
See the rest of our position tiers series: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF