Positions: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Third base, the most historically underrepresented position in the Hall of Fame, is currently loaded. The hot corner is sizzling.
Last season, there were 20 position players that posted a bWAR of at least 5.0 -- the rough description of an All-Star campaign. Four of those players were third basemen: Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Jose Ramirez. The oldest of these players was Arenado, at 27. All of them, in other words, are either early in their peak phase, or haven't yet reached it.
That 4-of-20 observation is telling. That means 20 percent of All-Star-caliber position players last season were young third basemen. There has been only one season since 1901 when that percentage was higher:
Some of these seasons make the list because the total number of 5-WAR players in the league that season was low. For instance, in both the 1902 and 1958 seasons, baseball featured just 11 5-WAR players apiece. The historical average is 18.8 5-WAR players per season. So the high 2018 figure for third basemen is not a reflection of a low league total. Last season saw a higher-than-average overall number of 5-WAR players.
The really impressive thing about that young third baseman list for 2018, comprised of young All-Stars who should maintain their excellence or improve in 2019 and beyond, is who is not on it. Kris Bryant isn't on it because of his injury issues last season. Manny Machado isn't on it because the former All-Star third baseman made a rare mid-career move over to shortstop.
Best of all: The most anticipated prospect of the 2019 season -- 19-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -- isn't on the list, either. He couldn't be, because he has yet to appear in the majors. But if the projection systems and prospect experts are right, Guerrero will further bolster what already is a historically strong crop of young third basemen.
TIER I: FRANCHISE PERFORMERS
Alex Bregman, Astros
Position rank: 1
hWAR: 5.59
It's hard to say what Bregman has improved most over his three stratospheric MLB seasons. Contact? Patience? Social media presence? This well-known "baseball rat" made the leap from good to great in 2018, and with a penchant for self-improvement, there is no telling how high the 24-year-old can go. Just absorb this skills progression:
Last season, Bregman contacted the ball twice as often as he did as a rookie, while taking walks twice as frequently and hitting the ball with more authority. His traditional line was eye-popping enough -- .285, 31 homers, 103 RBIs, 105 runs, 51 doubles -- but he also checks every advanced-stats box there is.
Bregman's defense is not yet at the level of his offense, but the Astros are comfortable playing him up the middle when needed, so the baseline ability is there. He had surgery in January to clean up some bone chips in his throwing elbow, though it doesn't look like that's going to delay the start of his season.
Bregman may not be the Astros' only MVP candidate, but he may be their best, especially if his trajectory of improvement continues. With his ability, familial ties to the game that stretch back to Ted Williams, and comfort in the spotlight, Bregman will be one of the faces of baseball over the next decade.
Jose Ramirez, Indians
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 5.58
In our shortstop tiers edition, I raved over the unlikely power stroke that Ramirez's infield teammate, Francisco Lindor, has developed during his big league career. It has been no more remarkable than the overall development of Ramirez, Cleveland's 5-foot-9 bundle of kinetic energy. Over his first five professional seasons, Ramirez accumulated 2,613 plate appearances, including winter league play. He homered 23 times during that span, or once every 114 trips to the plate. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, all of which Ramirez has spent at the big league level, he has hit 79 homers, or one for every 25 times at the plate. Last season, Ramirez hammered 39 homers, hitting one for every 18 plate appearances.
Ramirez is more than a hard swing, with a fierce uppercut that sometimes makes it look like he's levitating in the batter's box. (Kind of like Jose Altuve.) As he has increased his power, Ramirez has managed to keep his strikeout rates constant, while taking advantage of his new reputation as a dangerous dude to accept more walks. His walk rate went from 8.1 percent in 2017 to 15.2 last year. Ramirez also is feared, aggressive and smart on the basepaths, with 34 steals in 40 attempts last season and 110 runs scored. On top of all that, Ramirez is a fine defender at third base, with a middle infielder's body and the versatility to move left on the defensive spectrum when needed.
Nolan Arenado, Rockies
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 5.34
Not captured above in Arenado's hWAR forecast is what that represents under the hood. He's projected to rank in the 98th percentile of all big league hitters, and the 97th percentile of all defenders. Arenado has plenty of competition for the title of baseball's best third baseman, but he stands alone when it comes to being the complete player at the position. Like so many Rockies standouts before him, it seems as though it's only the murkiness that Coors Field casts into a player's stat line that leaves him overlooked far too often. And he does feel like an overlooked player.
Arenado will play his last controllable season for the Rockies for the $26 million he agreed to in order to avoid arbitration, a new record for a player in his arb-eligible years. In that sense, Arenado's value is well established, and the chatter during camp is that Colorado will pursue a long-term contract extension to keep him around. And why wouldn't they? Six years into his Rockies career, Arenado has four top-10 MVP finishes, and the next season that he does not win a Gold Glove will be his first.
Kris Bryant, Cubs
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 5.17
For all those who have been wringing their hands over the Cubs' inactivity over the winter, look no further for a reason why Chicago might be better. The Cubs won 95 games last season and Bryant, their best player, was a shadow of his usual self. Here are the bWAR totals for Bryant's first four big-league seasons in chronological order: 6.1, 7.4, 6.2, 1.9. One of these things is not like the other.
We can chalk up Bryant's down season to physical woes. Indeed, a late-June shoulder injury lingered with him the rest of the campaign. Bryant homered just three times in 32 games after the All-Star break. But none of this means that Cubs fans won't be relieved if and when Bryant returns to his powerhouse ways. If he doesn't, Chicago's title hopes take a serious dive.
TIER II: ALL-STARS
Justin Turner, Dodgers
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 4.67
Turner doesn't quite fit the theme of dynamic young third basemen, but he most certainly ranks up there with the younger stars at his position. Turner's counting numbers took a hit in 2018. He broke his hand when he was hit by a pitch during spring training and that put a dent in the early part of his season. At the All-Star break, Turner was hitting just .258/.354/.393. However, he exploded for 1.066 OPS the rest of the way and his overall percentages fell right in line with the norm he has established with his late-career breakout. He turned 34 after the season, but at the moment Turner shows no signs of slowing down.
Anthony Rendon, Nationals
Position rank: 6
hWAR: 4.58
Rendon is in the same boat as Arenado after agreeing to a $18.8 million salary for his last season of arbitration eligibility. Like Arenado, his club has entered into uncertain talks on a long-term extension. And like Arenado, Rendon's two-way game marks him as one the game's best players. Unlike Arenado, Rendon's raw numbers haven't gotten a boost from his home venue. In fact, his numbers at Nationals Park (.833 OPS, 51 homers) are a ringer for his numbers on the road (.826, also 51 homers).
On a team looking at a Bryce Harper void both in terms of numbers and personality, it'll be interesting to see what develops for a still-potent Washington roster. It reminds me of the early-2000s Seattle Mariners, who over the span of a couple of years lost both Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez to free agency. They responded to the losses by winning 116 games in 2001, with other Hall of Fame-level performers coming to the fore. Can Trea Turner become the Nats' infielder version of Ichiro Suzuki? Can Rendon become a better fielding Edgar Martinez?
This assumes, of course, that Harper will indeed be playing elsewhere come Opening Day.
Matt Chapman, Athletics
Position rank: 7
hWAR: 4.50
When it comes to a defensive "wow" factor, third base is where it always has been most evident. Perhaps it's the quick reaction times required from the position, or the need for a cannon arm. (I, as an amateur third baseman, lacked both of those qualities. In fact I had my nose rearranged by a bad-hop screamer when I was 15.) Anyway, I've always felt that the best defensive highlights are often from third basemen. Chapman, simply put, is MLB's version of a human highlight reel, rivaled only by Arenado at the position when it comes to the combination of style and substance in the field.
Once upon a time, third base was one of the most crucial defensive positions on the field. This was back in the dead-ball days, when bunts -- and the ability to defend them -- were such a major part of the game. That put a premium on hoover-fielding third sackers. Gradually, as the game began resembling the one we know now, the pendulum started to swing toward offense at the position. Defense was important, but you wanted a slugger if you could find one.
In recent years, with the proliferation of extreme shifts, third basemen are being moved around in ways no one would have once imagined. Often, he might be standing in the six-hole, the perennial domain of the shortstop. Sometimes, he might be flipped over to second base, while the middle infielders slide over. The end result is that third basemen get more chances than they used to, once you remove catcher chances from the mix.
This is in stark contrast to the declines at shortstop and second base, driven largely by the increase of fly-ball hitting. In 2012, third basemen accounted for 8.9 percent of non-catcher fielding chances. It has increased each season since, reaching 9.7 percent in 2018. That seems like a small number but over 162 games, it adds up to a quite a bit and, remember, bunts are more scarce than ever.
To a modest extent, this may play into the defensive value of standout third basemen like Arenado and Chapman in today's game. Over his first two seasons, Chapman has been credited with 48 defensive runs saved in what amounts to a season and a half at the big league level. Last season, he won his first Gold Glove. If Chapman stays healthy, you have to figure he'll win a lot more Gold Gloves over the next few years.
Oh, based on his 2018 progress, it looks like Chapman is going to be able to hit, too.
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
Position rank: 8
hWAR: 4.18
The 2018 season was a tale of three seasons for Carpenter. After a nine-game hitless streak through May 15, he was hitting .140 with three homers in 35 games. From that point through the end of August, he hit .313 with 32 homers, 61 walks and 59 RBIs in 94 torrid games. In doing so, Carpenter charged to the front of the crowded NL MVP race and helped propel the resurgent Cardinals into the playoff chase. But Carpenter's finish was like his beginning: During September, he hit .170 with one homer in 26 games. St. Louis challenged for an October slot but ultimately finished out of the running.
Despite the unusual shape of Carpenter's season, the bottom line is that it was a highly productive campaign. His 36 homers were a career high, he walked more than 100 times for the second straight season and scored 111 runs. As usual, Carpenter was moved around the infield, starting 74 games at third, 62 games at first, 11 at second and another two at DH. A snarkier writer might suggest that the last position is Carpenter's best. To be sure, he has taken some hits media-wise for his defense over the years. But last year, he graded as plus-1 defensive runs saved at first and plus-6 at third.
This season, Carpenter figures to move around less now that St. Louis has added star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. If Carpenter can perform at third for a full season as he did last year, and you consider a bat that produced a career-best .897 OPS, you're talking about a heck of a ballplayer.
Josh Donaldson, Braves
Position rank: 9
hWAR: 4.10
For years, when we drooled in anticipation of the 2018-19 free-agent class, Donaldson's name was always listed near the top of those speculative lists. But his travails are a classic example of just how humbling this game can be, and why we don't ever want to get caught looking too far ahead.
Donaldson was the AL MVP in 2015, leading the league with 123 RBIs and 122 runs scored while hitting 41 homers. He also was at the top of his game defensively, having logged 31 runs saved over a two-season span. His ascension had been sudden. It's easy to forget, but Donaldson didn't log his first full MLB season until he was 27. In fact, he has had only four seasons when he has qualified for the batting title.
Over the past two seasons, Donaldson has missed 159 games, been placed on the disabled list four times and been transferred to the 60-day DL once, all because of a maddening series of soft-tissue problems. Right calf. Right shoulder. And for much of the second half of last season, it was the left calf. Though he hit well after being dealt to Cleveland for the stretch run, it still was not the kind of platform season Donaldson could have hoped for.
Donaldson ended up taking a one-year, $23 million deal with the Braves early in the free-agency period in hopes of doing better next time around. Frankly, though, that kind of pillow contract may now be the best that post-30 veterans of Donaldson's ilk can hope for under the current CBA.
Eugenio Suarez, Reds
Position rank: 10
hWAR: 3.52
The Reds have one of baseball's premier third base prospects in their system and, by all accounts, if Nick Senzel is healthy -- his 2018 season was cut short because of an injury to his right index finger -- he's ready for the majors. Despite that, the Reds gave Suarez a six-year, $66 million extension before last season. Arranging the facts in this way isn't to cast aspersions on Cincinnati's decision-making process. It's to underscore just how good Suarez has become and how much his organization values his services. Besides, if Suarez keeps piling up the 4-WAR seasons, that contract won't only be a bargain, but it'll be highly tradable.
TIER III: FIRST-DIVISION REGULARS
11. Travis Shaw, Brewers (3.06 hWAR); 12. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (3.06 hWAR); 13. Kyle Seager, Mariners (2.85 hWAR); 14. Mike Moustakas, Brewers (2.62 hWAR)
There will be volumes written on Baby Vlad this season alone, but for now, let's just marvel at the fact that a 19-year-old who hasn't spent a day in the big leagues has built a minor league record so strong that he ranks as a Tier III performer already. There aren't many rookies who will crack these rankings.
Here are Spinal Tap's top 11 rookies, based on hWAR projections: 1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays; 2. Eloy Jimenez, White Sox; 3. Josh James, Astros; 4. Victor Robles, Nationals; 5. Nick Senzel, Reds; 6. Luis Urias, Padres; 7. Danny Jansen, Blue Jays; 8. Christin Stewart, Tigers; 9. Peter Alonso, Mets; 10. Kyle Tucker, Astros; 11. Brandon Lowe, Rays.
Meanwhile, the Brewers once again have two starting-quality third basemen after agreeing to a reported one-year, $10 million contract with Moustakas on Sunday. Moustakas once again endured a long winter waiting for a deal, but the outcome has to be heartening, because he was a perfect fit in the Milwaukee clubhouse last year. His return means that the Brewers will again shift Shaw over to second base, though how often that happens remains to be seen. If I had listed Shaw as a second baseman, he would have ranked sixth, though the defensive projections are not directly transferable.
TIER IV: SECOND-DIVISION REGULAR
15. Rafael Devers, Red Sox (2.25 hWAR); 16. Zack Cozart, Angels (2.11 hWAR); 17. Miguel Sano, Twins (1.97 hWAR); 18. Miguel Andujar, Yankees (1.79 hWAR); 19. Jed Lowrie, Mets (1.69 hWAR); 20. Evan Longoria, Giants (1.64 hWAR); 21. Asdrubal Cabrera, Rangers (1.61 hWAR); 22. Jeimer Candelario, Tigers (1.58 hWAR)
Yankees fans are no doubt looking bug-eyed at Andujar's ranking here, though it should be noted that the depth of the position means that a No. 18 ranking is actually pretty good. Here's the thing about Andujar: The numbers don't really know what to do with him just yet. And I say this despite Bill James recently writing that he sees Andujar as a future Hall of Famer. Part of it is the defense, of course. Andujar was at minus-25 defensive runs saved as a rookie third baseman.
Other systems, such as UZR, really didn't like his glove work any better. The defensive component in the hWAR system rates Andujar's glove work in just the eighth percentile. But he might get better. He has been working over the winter and if he's dedicated to become a playable defender, it could happen. Clearly he has talent. As for the hitting, he's the real deal. His rookie season in the majors was better than what he did during his minor league years, but his trajectory is only gaining momentum.
TIER V: ROLE PLAYERS
23. Johan Camargo, Braves (1.45 hWAR); 24. Eduardo Escobar, Diamondbacks (1.43 hWAR); 25. Matt Duffy, Rays (1.38 hWAR); 26. Maikel Franco, Phillies (1.37 hWAR); 27. Daniel Robertson, Rays (1.29 hWAR); 28. Todd Frazier, Mets (1.23 hWAR); 29. Colin Moran, Pirates (1.23 hWAR); 30. Yolmer Sanchez, White Sox (0.92 hWAR)
This is almost certainly a make-or-break season for Franco, if he has not already broken. Moustakas' return to Milwaukee may buy Franco another shot at regular status, one that could quickly disappear if Machado signs on. Otherwise, the inconsistent Franco has to improve the finer parts of his game, in terms of approach at the plate and dependability in the field.